Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
622 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Flight conditions will once again deteriorate overnight, with
ceilings dropping to around 800 feet across the southern
terminals, and into the 1200 to 2500 foot range farther north.
However, model guidance suggests these ceilings may need to be
lowered a category across the board and this will continue to be
monitored for the next forecast package. Otherwise, thunderstorms
may affect Abilene through 02z with mainly hit and miss showers
elsewhere.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday Night)

A the surface this afternoon, a dryline was located from just east
of Midland south to Sanderson. Also, an outflow boundary extended
from Big Spring on northeast across the northern Big Country. The
best axis of instability was located just to our west near the
dryline with MLCAPEs of 1000 to 1500 J/KG. Scattered storms have
developed across the eastern Permian Basin on south in Crockett
County. However, just to the east a across much of our area a lot of
stratus still remains. Also, the storms are being supported with
some effective shear and diffluent flow. Looks like at least a
threat of a few strong to severe storms this evening mainly across
the western 2/3 of the area. The main threats will be large hail and
damaging winds. For tonight, have the highest Pops across the Big
Country closer to better mid level ascent and low level southerly
flow, with decreasing Pops further south.

For Wednesday, expect a similar setup as a dryline will be located
to our west with upper level west-southwest flow. If the low clouds
can break during the afternoon, there should be some moderate
instability for isolated to scattered storms to develop during the
afternoon and evening hours and move east into our area. There will
be enough deep layer shear at for least multicells to develop with
possibly an isolated supercell. The more organized severe weather
will be north of the I-20 corridor. The main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds. The upper level forcing will be mostly weak
so going with chance to slight chance Pops for Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through much of the
extended period.

West Central Texas will remain in southwest flow aloft Thursday
and Friday ahead of a closed upper low that will drop south into
the Four Corners region through the period. The dryline is
expected to mix east to our western border both afternoons and
will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development each day,
as disturbances aloft move across the area. A moderately unstable
airmass, coupled with rather weak convective inhibition each day
should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
area, with the best chance for storms across the northern half of
the forecast area. Severe threat will be highly dependent on how
unstable the airmass becomes east of the dryline as cloud
cover/morning convection may limit overall destabilization during
the afternoon hours. Steep mid level lapse rates and strong deep
layer shear will be more than adequate for severe storms however,
with large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.

Saturday may be the most active day for severe storms. The
southwest upper low will lift northeast across the Southern
Rockies with a surface trough/dryline setting up across the Texas
Panhandle, south across West Texas. Stronger flow overspreading
the area, along with increasing large-scale ascent should result
in strong to severe storms developing along and head of the
dryline during the afternoon/evening hours. All modes of severe
weather will be possible on Saturday, with the most favored area
for severe storms across northwest and northern counties where
best upper level support will exist.

Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible mainly across the
eastern half of the area on Sunday. A cold front is progged to move
across the area by Monday, which will be a focus for additional
showers and thunderstorms into Monday night. Maintaining low POPs
beyond Sunday for this potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 65  83  66  83  67 /  60  30  40  40  30
San Angelo 	 66  83  68  87  68 /  40  20  20  20  30
Junction 	 66  82  68  83  69 /  40  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Aviation: Doll

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
229 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-061930-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
229 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. WHILE ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
618 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

TXZ065-066-072-052345-
RUNNELS TX-TOM GREEN TX-COKE TX-
618 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR
RUNNELS...TOM GREEN AND COKE COUNTIES...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 615 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF ORIENT...OR ABOUT 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN ANGELO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  A FEW SMALL BROKEN TREE BRANCHES...
  AN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
  A FEW LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TENNYSON BY 635 PM CDT
  MAVERICK AND BALLINGER LAKE BY 645 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3194 10025 3172 9992 3150 10020 3163 10040
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 213DEG 19KT 3164 10027

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
624 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

TXZ049-054-060000-
FISHER TX-NOLAN TX-
624 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR FISHER
AND NOLAN COUNTIES...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 621 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTH OF
I-20 NEAR THE NOLAN-MITCHELL COUNTY LINE...OR ABOUT 7 MILES WEST OF
ROSCOE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  A FEW SMALL BROKEN TREE BRANCHES...
  AN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
  A FEW LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE BLOWING DUST...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ROSCOE AND THE INTERSECTION OF RANCH ROAD 608 AND HIGHWAY 147 BY
  640 PM CDT
  GANNON AND CAMP BOOTHE OAKS BY 650 PM CDT
  SWEETWATER BY 655 PM CDT

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 227 AND 243.

LAT...LON 3232 10033 3233 10067 3255 10067 3264 10037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 260DEG 21KT 3244 10064