Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS San Angelo, TX

July 7, 2015Brown County, Texas

NWS San Angelo, TX issued this flash flood warning at Jul 7, 2015, 10:13 AM CDT for Brown County, Texas. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 7, 2015, 10:13 AM CDT (15:13 UTC)
Expired: Jul 7, 2015, 1:00 PM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS San Angelo, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

County Brown County, TX

The radar

The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 3.2 hours before the alert went out and 187 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 310 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -40 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 810 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 17 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 66 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

788 
WGUS54 KSJT 071513
FFWSJT
TXC049-071800-
/O.NEW.KSJT.FF.W.0033.150707T1513Z-150707T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1013 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  BROWN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1011 AM CDT...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE.  
  RADAR ESTIMATES HOURLY RAINFALL BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES.

* IMPACTS FROM THIS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL INCLUDE:
  FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADS AND INTERSECTIONS.
  RAPID RISE OF AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND ARROYOS.

  WATER WILL BE HIGH AND FAST ENOUGH TO STALL VEHICLES OR WASH THEM
  COMPLETELY OFF THE ROAD.


SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...EARLY...
BROWNWOOD...CAMP BOWIE...BYRDS...GROSVENOR...LAKE BROWNWOOD STATE
PARK...LAKE BROWNWOOD NEAR THRIFTY...ZEPHYR...MAY...LAKE BROWNWOOD...
CROSS CUT...BLANKET AND BANGS.

THIS INCLUDES THE LOW WATER CROSSINGS AT...
  CC WOODSON NEAR TRACTOR SUPPLY...
  BRADY FROM 1ST TO AUSTIN...
  WASHINGTON AT VINE...
  PARKWAY AT VINE...
  VINE AT AVENUE K...
  TEXAS AT CENTER...
  WEST MAIN AT 8TH...
  AUSTIN STREET AT AVENUE J...
  AUSTIN STREET AT AVENUE G...
  INDIAN CREEK AT 9TH...
  GOOD SHEPHARD AT 11TH...


LAT...LON 3169 9868 3168 9876 3163 9876 3160 9878
      3159 9921 3208 9919 3208 9912 3208 9893
      3187 9877 3174 9868 3170 9867

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 7, 7:09 AM CDT, 3 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 7, 7:09 AM CDT, 3 hours 4 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
709 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...

We have increased POPs for this afternoon through early evening
based on current radar trends.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

..Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding possible through
Wednesday afternoon...

Forecast challenges remain plentiful through tomorrow. The latest
satellite and radar trends show a strong MCS signature developing
across the Panhandle, with a general east to southeast propagation.
This convective system developed behind a linear MCS that moved
across this same region and through Oklahoma yesterday evening. The
net effect of all this is the weak cold front that has been
discussed the last few days, is moving farther south and east than
earlier thought, aided by the previously mentioned convective cold
pools.

This can also be seen in the latest numerical runs, with virtually
all of the latest guidance showing a continued southeastward trend
in the frontal timing/position for today and tonight, with the
general theme being the front stalling along a Sterling City to
Robert Lee to Throckmorton line around midnight. The heaviest
rainfall will develop along and immediately behind this front, where
a widespread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is expected through early
Wednesday afternoon, with locally higher amounts possible.
Additionally, the current SPC mesoanalysis shows the "moist axis"
running from Crockett County northward through the western Concho
Valley and Big County, where precipitable water values are in the
1.9 to 2.1 inch range! When comparing these values to climatology,
the current value of 1.9 inches at Del Rio is amongst the 95th
percentile, and 1.7 inches at Midland is near the daily maximum
value for today. Given the likelyhood for additional convection
developing along outflow boundaries, the trend in the model data,
and after coordinating with surrounding offices, a Flash Flood Watch
has been issued through 1 PM Wednesday for the northern Concho
Valley and Big Country.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

Drier and warmer conditions will return to the region for the middle
to end of the week. An area of high pressure currently located
across the southeastern U.S., will build to the west northwest for
Thursday through the weekend. Drier air and rising mid and
upper-level heights will end our chance for rainfall, with warming
temperatures expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 87  69  90  72  91 /  70  80  40   5   5
San Angelo 	 90  71  91  72  92 /  70  50  20   5   5
Junction 	 90  72  91  72  91 /  30  20  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Runnels...Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

Doll

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 7, 4:01 AM CDT, 6 hours 12 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
401 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-080915-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
401 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS NORTH AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM SAN ANGELO...TO BAIRD. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND AT LOW
WATER CROSSINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...MAINLY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 7, 7:26 AM CDT, 2 hours 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
726 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ABILENE                 32.45N  99.73W
07/07/2015                   TAYLOR             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ABILENE PD REPORTS SEVERAL VEHICLE WATER RESCUES ACROSS
            THE CITY... WITH WATER ENTERING SOME HOMES. STREETS ARE
            BEGINNING TO FLOOD ACROSS TOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500497

JW

Local storm report, Jul 7, 7:39 AM CDT, 2 hours 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
739 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE ABILENE           32.43N  99.68W
07/07/2015  M5.40 INCH       TAYLOR             TX   ASOS

            THE ABILENE REGIONAL AIRPORT HAS MEASURED 5.40 INCHES
            OF RAINFALL SINCE 3 AM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500498

DOLL

Local storm report, Jul 7, 8:22 AM CDT, 1 hour 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
822 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE ABILENE           32.43N  99.68W
07/07/2015  M5.82 INCH       TAYLOR             TX   ASOS

            RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED SINCE 3 AM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500499

DOLL

Local storm report, Jul 7, 9:10 AM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
910 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0909 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ABILENE                 32.45N  99.73W
07/07/2015                   TAYLOR             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            34 REPORTED WATER RESCUES ACROSS THE ABILENE AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500500

JD

The office that day

Everything else NWS San Angelo, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 7, 3:00 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	SJT	Callahan, Coke, Fisher, Haskell, Jones, Nolan and 5 more	12 hr
Jul 7, 3:54 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Callahan, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor	81 min
Jul 7, 4:32 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Fisher, Nolan	118 min
Jul 7, 5:44 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Callahan, Taylor	2 hr
Jul 7, 5:52 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Haskell, Jones, Shackelford, Throckmorton	113 min
Jul 7, 7:19 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Callahan, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor	3 hr
Jul 7, 8:11 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Callahan, Shackelford, Throckmorton	94 min
Jul 7, 8:29 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Coleman, Runnels	2 hr
Jul 7, 8:51 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Coleman, Runnels	3 hr
Jul 7, 9:49 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Callahan, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor	3 hr
Jul 7, 10:24 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Fisher, Nolan	2 hr
Jul 7, 11:49 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Runnels, Taylor	3 hr
Jul 7, 12:45 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Callahan, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor	3 hr
Jul 7, 2:31 PM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	SJT	Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Fisher and 12 more	31 hr
Jul 7, 2:41 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Tom Green	2 hr
Jul 7, 2:52 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Tom Green	3 hr
Jul 7, 4:24 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Crockett, Irion, Schleicher, Tom Green	111 min
Jul 7, 5:12 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Crockett	108 min
Jul 7, 5:54 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Shackelford	111 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2015 Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.