Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS San Angelo, TX

225 
WGUS74 KSJT 161244
FFSSJT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
744 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

TXC235-161430-
/O.CON.KSJT.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-150616T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
IRION TX-
744 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CDT FOR
EASTERN IRION COUNTY...

AT 739 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN 
OVER EASTERN IRION COUNTY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 
INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH 930 AM.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ARDEN

THIS INCLUDES THE LOW WATER CROSSINGS AT...
  RANCH ROAD 853 CROSSING MIDDLE CONCHO RIVER...
  RANCH ROAD 859 CROSSING WEST ROCKY CREEK...
  RANCH ROAD 853 CROSSING EAST ROCKY CREEK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 10089 3153 10090 3152 10070 3151 10069
      3118 10069

$$

MC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
618 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Widespread stratus will produce MVFR/IFR ceilings at the terminals
this morning. The ceilings will lift to low end VFR at most of the
terminals this afternoon and evening, and then low clouds return
late tonight, with IFR ceilings at the terminals. The combination
of a tropical airmass and some instability will produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms through much of the TAF forecast period.
Going with mainly VCSH/VCTS at the terminals, with a few hours of
5SM SHRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

Good rain chances continue for most of West Central Texas for the
next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Bill will move onshore sometime
today, likely this morning, near Port Lavaca. The latest forecast
track brings this system to near Goldwaite around sunrise
Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a weak disturbance aloft over West
Texas will continue to enhance rain chances for West Central Texas
today and tonight. Based on model forecasts, the best rain
chances will be mainly across our eastern counties; however,
tropical systems like Bill have historically not produced heavy
rainfall for our eastern counties, if the track is too far east.
This is because sinking air aloft usually occurs to the west of
these tropical systems. Thus, our confidence regrading the
potential for heavy rainfall is not high enough to issue any Flash
Flood Watch, at this time. We do believe our eastern counties will
receive more rainfall, during the next 24 hours, than our other
counties. The question is how much?

LONG TERM...

The long term forecast includes rain chances through Friday, before
drier air moves into Texas and ends rain chance, for the remainder
of the long term. Models are in fair good agreement through the
end of this week, and they continue a weak disturbance over Texas.
The GFS and ECMWF slowly move this weak disturbance aloft away from
Texas and toward the northeast later this week. Thus, diminishing
rain chances into Friday look reasonable. For Saturday and into
the start of next week, high pressure builds over Texas from the
west, and a dry pattern will dominate West Central Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 82  68  81  69  88 /  70  50  60  40  30
San Angelo 	 84  68  86  68  88 /  60  40  50  30  30
Junction 	 83  69  85  69  85 /  70  50  60  50  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
439 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-170945-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
439 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.