Tornado Warning 60, NWS Shreveport, LA

188 
WWUS54 KSHV 181219
SVSSHV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
719 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

LAC013-015-017-031-181228-
/O.CAN.KSHV.TO.W.0060.000000T0000Z-150618T1230Z/
BOSSIER LA-CADDO LA-BIENVILLE LA-DE SOTO LA-
719 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BOSSIER...SOUTHEASTERN
CADDO...WESTERN BIENVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN DE SOTO PARISHES IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3221 9390 3248 9358 3230 9342 3224 9354
      3224 9361 3222 9360 3221 9360 3211 9378
TIME...MOT...LOC 1217Z 228DEG 28KT 3241 9356 

$$

09

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
626 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE PD. LOW CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VC OF ANY CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE...WE
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT AROUND 12-18
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF BILL IS RIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE
TEXOMA WITH SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF TO OCCUR TODAY WITH WRAP AROUND
ACTIVITY STILL IN PROGRESS. THE LAKE LEVEL IS ONLY ABOUT A FOOT
FROM THE SPILLWAY AND ANOTHER CREST WILL BE DETERMINED AND WORKING
DOWN STREAM AS RELEASES MAY BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SPILL. BILL IS
SLOWLY MOVING NNE AT 10 MPH PER THE LATEST WPC ADVISORY. WINDS ARE
ONLY 25 MPH SUSTAINED...BUT EFFECTIVELY WRAPPING UP THE MOIST
TROPICAL CONNECTION THAT IS DRAPED AROUND OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO
THE COASTAL BEND. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...BUT APPEAR TO LACK
FOCUS CONSIDERING THE RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE HRRR IS LOOKING GOOD TO START WITH RAPID REFRESH AND WEAKENS
THE CURRENT FOCUS AND REDEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH OF
TYLER...TO NEAR TEXARKANA. EITHER WAY...HEATING WILL BE A PLAYER
AND EVEN THE HRRR MAY BE OFF AS CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY GUST
OUT INTO THE WARMER AREAS. RECOVERY OF RAIN AREAS WILL BE MUCH
QUICKER THAN NORMAL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR ALMOST
ANYWHERE WITH MODEST CAPE IN THIS SUPER RICH TROPICAL CONNECTION
THAT IS FUNNELING IN OVER THE AREA.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DRY SLOT OF AIR THAT IS ESTABLISHED OVER
SE OK WHICH COULD BE A BACK EDGE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
CIRCULATION SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD...BUT THE WRAP AROUND MAY KEEP
TO OUR NORTH. ALSO TO NOTE...IS A LARGE DRY AIR PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF UNDER THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A RESULTING SHARP SHEAR
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND UP TO NEAR MEMPHIS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH ALL THE HIGH WATER IS
PLACE...RECENT RAINFALL...WHAT IS ON RADAR NOW AND WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE DEVELOPING WITH EVEN LIMITED HEATING. THE FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS COULD EVEN BE NEEDED BEYOND THAT TIME DEPENDING ON
PROGRESSION OF BILL AND THE TROPICAL CONNECTION LOCATIONS TOWARD
SUNDOWN. BILLS CORE WILL KEEP ACTIVITY TIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SHEAR AXIS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO SOME
DEGREE OVERNIGHT. WE COULD SEE RAIN TOTALS TODAY AND OVERALL EVENT
TOTALS GIVE US A VERY WET MONTH DESPITE THE DRY START. THIS ALONG
WITH A VERY SWOLLEN SYSTEM OF LAKES...BAYOUS...RIVERS AND
BACKWATER INTO THE EARLY PART OF SUMMER. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  75  90  75 /  80  30  30  10
MLU  87  75  91  74 /  30  20  30  10
DEQ  80  72  85  72 /  80  80  40  20
TXK  84  74  89  75 /  70  60  40  20
ELD  85  74  88  74 /  50  40  40  20
TYR  85  74  89  74 /  70  40  30  10
GGG  85  75  90  74 /  60  40  30  10
LFK  86  75  90  74 /  80  20  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059-060-070.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
629 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-191130-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
629 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH ARKANSAS...NORTH
LOUISIANA...EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND EVEN FURTHER DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HEATING. THIS TROPICAL AIR IS VERY MOIST WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING DUE TO ALREADY HIGH WATER IN PLACES
THROUGH TODAY. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE CLUSTERS AND BOWS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND WEAK TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF BILL. THEN ONLY ISOLATED...MAINLY LATE DAY
ACTIVITY...COULD BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...MAINLY FOR
FLASH FLOODING OF EVEN NEW AREAS UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
348 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

LAZ010-017-TXZ153-180945-
DE SOTO LA-SABINE LA-SHELBY TX-
348 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SABINE...SOUTHERN DE
SOTO PARISHES IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHEASTERN SHELBY
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

AT 347 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF SHELBYVILLE...OR 13 MILES EAST OF CENTER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANSFIELD...HUXLEY...SOUTH MANSFIELD...GRAND CANE...STANLEY...
CARMEL...PELICAN...EVELYN...RAMBIN AND KINGSTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3170 9394 3183 9409 3222 9369 3195 9341
TIME...MOT...LOC 0847Z 224DEG 24KT 3183 9395

06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
626 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CENTER                  31.79N  94.18W
06/18/2015                   SHELBY             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 96S BEING REROUTED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING...
            HIGHWAY 87S AND HIGHWAY 7E WATER OVER ROADWAY IN SOME
            AREAS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1500597

MDV