Severe Thunderstorm Warning 212, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
414 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH NRN AR HAS PROVIDED
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL ASCENT FOR SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY BEING FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION.
ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS OK
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
ARKLATEX MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD
BE GREATER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/SERN CONUS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH LATE
TUESDAY EVENING/TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY AND
DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST
WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BETTER CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TSTMS OR POSSIBLY LINEAR
COMPLEXES THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM OK/AR.

THE WRN CONUS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FINALLY MOVE EAST AND BUILD OVER
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING MOST OF OUR RAIN
CHANCES TO AN END AND FINALLY SET THE STAGE FOR HOT AND DRY
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  74  93 /  30  40  20  20
MLU  73  90  74  92 /  30  40  20  20
DEQ  71  94  73  91 /  20  30  20  20
TXK  73  89  74  92 /  30  40  20  20
ELD  73  89  73  91 /  30  40  20  20
TYR  74  91  74  92 /  30  30  10  10
GGG  74  92  74  92 /  30  30  10  20
LFK  74  92  74  92 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1226 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-301100-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
1226 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AIR RETURNS NORTHWARD COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE REGION. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND AMATEUR
RADIO OPERATORS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

09