Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
124 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

.AVIATION...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO DRIVE OUR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP THE TAF
SITES WITH VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. KMLU
AND KELD MAY HOLD ON TO VFR CONDITIONS AS THE MAIN IMPACTS OF FROM
BILL HAVE BEEN WEST OF THEIR LOCATIONS. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
LATE THIS EVENING...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TOMORROW AS BILL
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. LOW VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS 35-45KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE N THIS WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEEDER BAND IS TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAME AREAS OF E TX THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING.

CURRENT TEXT AND GRIDDED FORECASTS LOOK FINE...BUT WILL REINSPECT LATER
THIS MORNING BY 11 AM TO FINE TUNE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  89  75  90 /  50  40  30  30
MLU  73  92  75  92 /  20  30  20  30
DEQ  74  82  72  86 /  80  70  70  40
TXK  74  87  74  88 /  60  70  60  40
ELD  73  89  73  90 /  40  50  40  40
TYR  74  86  74  89 /  70  60  40  30
GGG  74  88  74  90 /  50  50  40  30
LFK  75  90  75  91 /  50  40  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150-152-165.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-108>111-
     124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

OKZ077-TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150-181115-
MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-WOOD-UPSHUR-SMITH-
GREGG-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
1146 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN TEXAS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY...A
COUPLE OF WEAK TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM APPEAR
FAVORABLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BILL. THE RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING ON THE NECHES...SABINE... ANGELINA...AND
SULPHUR RIVERS OF EAST TEXAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

A NEW RISE WILL DEVELOP ON THE RED RIVER IN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH
OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO LOUISIANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS JUNE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS COULD BE REQUIRED DURING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SPIRAL THUNDERSTORM BANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ097-112-
126-138-151>153-165>167-181115-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-BOWIE-CASS-MARION-HARRISON-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
1146 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

VIII.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
222 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

LAZ003-004-011-012-018>020-172000-
RED RIVER LA-NATCHITOCHES LA-CLAIBORNE LA-WEBSTER LA-BIENVILLE LA-
WINN LA-GRANT LA-
222 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CLAIBORNE...WESTERN
WINN...BIENVILLE...NORTHEASTERN RED RIVER...WEST CENTRAL GRANT...
SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER AND NORTHEASTERN NATCHITOCHES PARISHES UNTIL 300
PM CDT...

AT 221 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR DUBBERLY TO NEAR
MONTGOMERY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NATCHITOCHES...COLFAX...RINGGOLD...CAMPTI...GIBSLAND...MONTGOMERY...
DUBBERLY...HEFLIN...NATCHEZ...MARTIN...CLARENCE...GOLDONNA...
SALINE...LUCKY...ASHLAND...CASTOR...ATHENS...CALVIN...BIENVILLE AND
ATLANTA.

LAT...LON 3278 9305 3150 9260 3159 9301 3243 9333
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 241DEG 55KT 3254 9315 3171 9289

VIII.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
231 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LUFKIN                  31.33N  94.73W
06/17/2015                   ANGELINA           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADS FLOODED - TOM HOLLINS... BOX CAR ROAD... FM 1475
            AND FM 841 IN LUFKIN

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1500587

25

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