Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
215 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 204 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT FOR
THE FOUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE WARNING AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE OF THE LEAD UPPER DISTRUBANCES WAS MOVING ACORSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTROMS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. LATER INTO
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER SERIES OF SMALLER DISTURBANCES
WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION.
STILL LOOKING FOR ANOTHER STRONG NEGATIVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY MONDAY
PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ROUND OF POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. /06

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 202 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND SOME OF THE OTHER ZONES IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH
DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. . MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THE ENDING RAIN AND DEVELOPING RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.

DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED THAT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST TEXAS LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE AREA /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF E TX CONTINUE
TO MOVE N THIS SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS SUNDAY IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY IN A CONTINUED VERY MOIST AIRMASS. /VIII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  82  70  83  69 /  90  60  70  80
MLU  86  70  82  70 /  90  80  70  80
DEQ  78  68  79  67 /  90  60  70  80
TXK  81  69  82  68 /  90  60  70  80
ELD  83  69  82  68 /  90  80  70  80
TYR  79  71  83  69 /  60  40  80  80
GGG  79  71  83  69 /  70  40  70  80
LFK  81  73  83  70 /  60  50  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
617 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-241700-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
617 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP TO DESTABLIZE THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS...NORTH LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AS STRONG SHEAR AND FORCING ALOFT AHEAD
OF THIS DISTURBANCE SPREADS INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL
FALL OVER GROUNDS THAT STILL REMAIN SATURATED FROM EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THAT FELL EARLIER THIS PAST WEEK. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE REGION...AHEAD OF ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIR MASS DESTABILIATION
MONDAY AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL AGAIN BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO IN EXCESS OF FOUR
INCHES LIKELY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THIS DISTURBANCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND AMATEUR
RADIO OPERATORS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING...AS
WELL AS RAINFALL REPORTS.

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
208 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE HOMER              32.82N  93.02W
05/24/2015                   CLAIBORNE          LA   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1500524

27

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
236 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     15 SSE WINNFIELD        31.72N  92.54W
05/24/2015                   GRANT              LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN IN VERDA... LA

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1500527

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
237 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0104 PM     TSTM WND DMG     18 SW WINNFIELD         31.74N  92.86W
05/24/2015                   WINN               LA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 84 SOUTHWEST OF WINNFIELD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1500528

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
238 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     13 SE CLARENCE          31.69N  92.87W
05/24/2015                   GRANT              LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN IN MONTGOMERY... LA

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1500529

25