Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
345 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 80S NORTH TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE.
THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE RUNNING OUT OF GAS. AS EXPECTED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION HAS OCCURRED OVER OUR TEXAS COUNTIES
LIFTING NORTHEAST WARD WITH MEAGER COVERAGE SO FAR. THE WINDS
THERE ARE MOIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW...THE MORE STABLE AIR
REMAINS OVER OUR EAST AND MAYBE FOR A WHILE YET.

FARTHER WEST...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRONGER AND TO SOME EXTENT A
BIT MORE NUMEROUS. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE REASON IS A GOOD PUSH
OUT OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW. THE
TAIL END OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE IT/S EVOLUTION BEYOND
SUNDOWN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WORKING EAST OUT INTO THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

SO AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE ACTION WE HAVE THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW ALONG THE AR/LA STATE LINE OR SO WITH A CONTINUED
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS A GOOD PUSH OF
QPF INTO OUR NW CORNER AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE DIURNAL
COVERAGE GONE HOURS EARLIER IN THE MID EVENING. THE NAM IS
SIMILAR...BUT MUCH SLOWER. THE RAIN THAT ACTUALLY FALLS IN THIS
AREA IS CRUCIAL TO RIVER FORECAST WHICH IS QPF DRIVEN. SO CLOSE
ATTENTION TO CONDITIONS IS MORE THAN WARRANTED WITH ALREADY PRETTY
HIGH WATER AND SOIL SATURATION AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SETTLE INTO THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATE TOMORROW AND INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE GREATLY AS WE SEE ANOTHER
DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND OUT INTO
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  86  70  79 /  20  30  50  40
MLU  69  88  69  79 /  20  30  50  40
DEQ  68  82  62  74 /  60  50  50  30
TXK  68  83  67  75 /  50  40  50  40
ELD  67  83  65  75 /  20  30  50  40
TYR  70  84  66  78 /  30  30  50  40
GGG  69  85  68  79 /  30  30  50  40
LFK  71  86  71  83 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-201700-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
1159 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...FOR DEEP EAST
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS...ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING
AND A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE...LIKEWISE BRINGING A
THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY TO VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE. HOWEVER...NO
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS AND STORM SPOTTERS IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
346 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 AM     FLASH FLOOD      RUSTON                  32.53N  92.64W
05/18/2015                   LINCOLN            LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 FATAL, 2 INJ *** A CHILD PERISHED WHEN A CAR
            CARRYING AN ADULT AND 2 CHILDREN WAS SWEPT OFF LITTLE
            RIVER RD IN RUSTON. THE 2 SURVIVORS WERE TAKEN TO THE
            HOSPITAL FOR UNKNOWN INJURIES.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER SHV1500492

13