Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
317 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SEA BREEZE TYPE CONVECTION MARCHING NWD THIS AFTN...AND
BEGINNING TO KICK OFF GUSTS FRONTS WITH 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS. DRY
MID LVLS WILL KEEP COVERAGE SCATTERED...UNTIL OVERNIGHT MCS MOVES
DOWN RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT REACH AREA UNTIL
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT ADDED NW CORNER OF CWA IN LATE EVE FOR
LIKELY POPS JUST IN CASE...AND LEAVING SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS SLIGHT
CHANCE THIS EVE...WITH AIRMASS MORE WORKED OVER FROM CONVECTION.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NW SECTIONS OF AREA BEGINNING AT 1 AM. ADDED
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MCS FOR THOSE SECTIONS...WITH
SATURATED GROUND...JUST A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN COULD BE A REAL
ISSUE. DEEP SFC LOW MOVG THRU UPPER MIDWEST WILL DRAG ATTENDANT
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...SWINGING AN EVEN
STRONGER MCS INTO OUR AREA...WHICH SHOULD SPREAD OUT AND BRING
RAIN TO MOST OF THE REGION MONDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO REISSUE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH WILL EXPIRE SUNDAY AT 1 PM...AS PREVIOUS
MCS WILL DIMINISH...AND SHOULD GET A RAIN BREAK FOR AIRMASS TO
RECOVER. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY WILL
AFFECT TEMPS SLIGHTLY...AND BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO AREA..BUT
NOT FOR LONG AS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER BACK INTO REGION AND
BECOME QUASI STNRY AGAIN BY MID WEEK./VII.,

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 101 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015/

AVIATION...
CIGS HAVE BECOME VFR AS OF MIDDAY OVER ALL THE REGION EXCEPT FOR
SCNTRL AR/NE LA...WITH THESE MVFR CIGS OVER THE E EXPECTED TO
BECOME VFR SHORTLY. HOWEVER...SCT CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER
DEEP E TX INTO N LA/SW AR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THIS TREND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AFFECTING ALL BUT THE TYR AND POSSIBLY TXK TERMINAL. LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS...MVFR CIGS/REDUCED VSBYS...AND SVR TURBULENCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THE CONVECTION...BEFORE THEY DIMINISH SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LINGER THIS
EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP/SPREAD N AFTER 06Z
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. A MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WCNTRL OK...AND PROGRESS ESE INTO SE OK/EXTREME NE
TX SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION MAY
AFFECT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS BETWEEN 09-12Z SUNDAY...AND
SHV/ELD AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. HAVE INSERTED MENTION OF VCTS
FOR THESE TERMINALS...WITH ANY ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE BNDRYS
POSSIBLY SCOURING THE LOWER CIGS...ALLOWING FOR A QUICKER RETURN
OF VFR CIGS. THESE SFC BNDRYS MAY EVENTUALLY FOCUS ADDITIONAL SCT
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON FARTHER SE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF THE DECAYING COMPLEX EXPECTED TO
LIFT/BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING. S WINDS 10-15KTS...WITH GUSTS TO
23KTS OVER E TX/SE OK...WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 6-12KTS AFTER
00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  86  72  82 /  30  50  60  70
MLU  70  87  72  83 /  20  40  50  70
DEQ  70  83  69  80 /  80  60  70  60
TXK  72  85  70  82 /  50  60  70  60
ELD  70  86  71  81 /  30  40  60  70
TYR  72  85  72  82 /  50  60  60  60
GGG  73  86  72  82 /  50  60  60  70
LFK  73  88  74  83 /  20  40  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ARZ050-051-059-060-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1138 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ARZ061-071>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ149>153-165>167-
171645-
NEVADA-LAFAYETTE-COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-
LINCOLN-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
1138 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN
LOW LYING AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
WITH THE SETTING SUN THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...AS THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
UNSETTLED AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WILL LIKELY AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING OF
AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE
NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ARZ050-051-059-060-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-
171645-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-MILLER-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-
BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-
GREGG-HARRISON-
1138 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL
1 PM CDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR...RESULTING IN PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE...WILL MOVE INTO THE THE REGION. STRONG GUSTY WIND NEAR
STORMS MAY OCCUR...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE FLOODING
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...RESULTING IN
RAPID RUNOFF OF WATER

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF THREE TO
FIVE INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN
ADDITION TO THE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING RISK...THIS RAINFALL WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE WORSENING OF HYDROLOGIC FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS
AND LAKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY POSSIBLY BE
NEEDED LATE TONIGHT.

VII

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
249 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

LAZ001>003-162030-
BOSSIER LA-WEBSTER LA-CADDO LA-
249 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BOSSIER...SOUTHERN CADDO
AND SOUTHERN WEBSTER PARISHES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 249 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR STONEWALL TO 13 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT TO 10 MILES WEST OF RINGGOLD...AND MOVING
NORTH NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HAUGHTON...BLANCHARD...BENTON...
SIBLEY...DOYLINE...DIXIE INN...FOSTERS...EASTWOOD...NOLES LANDING...
MC DADE...ROBSON...FERGUSON...BELLEVUE...TAYLORTOWN...FILLMORE...RED
CHUTE AND GILARK.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3241 9333 3241 9337 3239 9343 3237 9340
      3231 9343 3228 9341 3225 9341 3227 9362
      3232 9366 3233 9370 3232 9371 3235 9377
      3234 9380 3229 9385 3226 9386 3224 9397
      3268 9383 3270 9345 3268 9323
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 206DEG 23KT 3230 9386 3232 9366 3230 9346

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
301 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

LAZ012-013-018-019-162045-
NATCHITOCHES LA-BIENVILLE LA-JACKSON LA-WINN LA-
301 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WINN...SOUTHEASTERN
BIENVILLE...SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN NATCHITOCHES
PARISHES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 301 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES EAST OF CAMPTI...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF NATCHITOCHES...MOVING
NORTH AT 50 MPH.

STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NATCHITOCHES...JONESBORO...CAMPTI...CLARENCE...HODGE...GOLDONNA...
NORTH HODGE...EAST HODGE...SALINE...LUCKY...ASHLAND...CALVIN...
BIENVILLE...GRAND ECORE...CLEAR LAKE...CRESTON...CHESTNUT...BRICE...
FRIENDSHIP AND LIBERTY HILL.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3174 9282 3178 9314 3236 9300 3233 9266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 189DEG 43KT 3185 9295

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
329 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

LAZ012-162115-
BIENVILLE LA-
329 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BIENVILLE PARISH UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

AT 329 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
RINGGOLD TO 17 MILES WEST OF JONESBORO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SALINE...LUCKY...CASTOR...BIENVILLE...BRYCELAND...MOUNT LEBANON...
FRIENDSHIP...SAILES...BRICE AND LIBERTY HILL.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3215 9290 3221 9321 3223 9321 3253 9310
      3250 9288 3246 9288 3245 9278 3244 9278
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 204DEG 24KT 3222 9318 3221 9300

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
343 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

LAZ005-012-013-162130-
LINCOLN LA-BIENVILLE LA-JACKSON LA-
343 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BIENVILLE...WESTERN
JACKSON AND LINCOLN PARISHES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 343 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES SOUTH OF ARCADIA
TO 18 MILES SOUTH OF GRAMBLING TO JONESBORO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUSTON...GRAMBLING...JONESBORO...ARCADIA...DUBACH...CHOUDRANT...
SIMSBORO...HODGE...NORTH HODGE...VIENNA...EAST HODGE...LUCKY...
BIENVILLE...QUITMAN...MOUNT ZION...BRICE...UNIONVILLE...CORINTH AND
LIBERTY HILL.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3215 9265 3225 9283 3226 9304 3259 9292
      3259 9288 3260 9288 3261 9287 3267 9287
      3272 9283 3276 9283 3275 9259 3269 9252
      3267 9252 3267 9249 3261 9242
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 202DEG 43KT 3228 9295 3228 9282 3221 9271

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
433 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ARZ072-073-162215-
UNION AR-COLUMBIA AR-
433 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN UNION AND COLUMBIA
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 432 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BUSSEY TO 9 MILES EAST OF
ATLANTA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EL DORADO...MAGNOLIA...WALDO...NORPHLET...MCNEIL...TAYLOR...
EMERSON...WESSON...SMITHLAND...VILLAGE...MACEDONIA...BUSSEY...
ATLANTA...LISBON...MOUNT HOLLY...CALHOUN...MOUNT VERNON...
HORSEHEAD...BETHEL AND EBENEZER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3302 9286 3302 9309 3310 9349 3326 9348
      3326 9344 3340 9340 3344 9336 3344 9326
      3342 9312 3338 9312 3338 9294 3330 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 234DEG 28KT 3315 9346 3304 9291

13