Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1234 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015

.UPDATE...
EXTENSION OF THE TORNADO WATCH AREA TO INCLUDE CHEROKEE COUNTY TX

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015/

UPDATE...
FOR TORNADO WATCH 162 UNTIL 10Z OR 5 AM AND AREA EXTENSION TO
INCLUDE UNION AND LINCOLN LA.

DISCUSSION...
WCN WILL BE UPDATED AT MIDNIGHT FOR 161 TORNADO WATCH EXPIRATING
COUNTIES. ALSO WE WILL ADD LINCOLN AND UNION PARISHES IN THE NEW
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10Z/5 AM DST. SMALL CHANGES TO RESTRUCTURE
POPS AND WEATHER FROM NOW UNTIL 12Z OR 7AM. NEW WCN ON THE WAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015/

AVIATION...
NUMEROUS TSTMS CONTAINING VERY FQT LTG...HAIL ALOFT...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 60KTS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT
VCNTY OF KTXK...KTYR...KGGG TERMINALS THRU AROUND 11/08Z. THESE
STORMS MAY APPROACH KSHV TERMINAL BY AROUND 11/06Z. WEAKER
CONVECTION VCNTY KLFK. STORMS WILL APPROACH KMLU AND KELD LTR
TONIGHT. COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF I-35 SO CONVECTION REGENERATION
POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY LA PORTIONS OF AREA MON AFTN. MOSTLY VFR CIGS
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXCEPT SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KLFK.
S-SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS OVER NE TX TONIGHT...5 TO 10 KTS FURTHER
EAST. WINDS BECMG LGT AND VRBL AFTER 12/00Z./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015/

UPDATE...
SOME CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...POPS...WEATHER AND SKY

DISCUSSION...
MODELS LAGGING BOTH NEW NAM AND LATEST HRRR. WE HAVE GONE WITH
OBSERVATION AND EXPECTATION FOR THIS DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE THAT
IS COMING TOGETHER OVER SE OK/SW AR AND NE TX. NEW WPC QPF MATCHES
WELL. CLOUDY WORDING IS RIGHT ON UNDER ALL THIS ANVIL DIVERGENCE
AND WE HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES AND TWEAKED LOWS. THE WATER VAPOR
IS SHOWING THE PARENT LOW SPOKING NEGATIVE INTO THE MIDWEST WITH
ANOTHER VORT OVER CO DROPPING INTO THE PATTERN NOW. THIS WILL
ASSIST THE PUSH ACROSS OVERNIGHT BY TAKING THE VENTING EASTWARD
KEEPING THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IN BUSINESS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO BE CLOSE TO TRACK WITH LIKELY MORE WEATHER...BUT WITH A BIT
LESS OVERALL WIND ON THE ALL BLEND DURING LATE MONDAY AND
EVENING. ANOTHER UPDATE WITH OR WITHOUT A NEW WATCH BY MIDNIGHT.
/24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED LITTLE...AS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION INTO DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO
OCCUR...AND 700 MB FLOW HAS BEEN NEARLY PARALLEL TO ORIENTATION OF
STORMS. THUS...SPC HAS MERGED TO SEPARATE TORNADO WATCHES INTO ONE
ENTITY...IN EFFECT UNTIL 02Z. COLD FRONT STILL JUST EAST OF TX
PANHANDLE...SO SVR THREAT COULD CONTINUE BEYOND THAT. HAVE LEFT IN
SVR MENTION THRU THE OVERNIGHT....AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF
I-30 STILL EXPECTED DURG THE DAY MONDAY. AFTER THIS...NAM BRINGING
FRONT THRU QUICKER THAN GFS...CLEARLY EVIDENT BY MOS TEMP
DIFFERENCES EXCEEDING 10 DEGREES ON HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY. THE FRONT
ORIENTATIN WILL AFFECT DETAILS OF FCST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...HOWEVER...GENERALLY HIGHER POPS SEEN OVER WESTERN...AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA FOR MOST OF THE WEEK./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 137 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  75  65  77 /  20  30  20  50
MLU  65  78  65  79 /  20  40  10  40
DEQ  59  72  59  74 /  10  10  10  50
TXK  62  73  62  74 /  10  20  20  50
ELD  65  74  62  77 /  20  20  10  40
TYR  61  74  65  74 /  20  30  30  70
GGG  61  74  65  75 /  20  30  20  70
LFK  67  76  68  79 /  40  60  30  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112.

&&

24/07/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1124 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

ARZ060-061-070>073-111630-
HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-COLUMBIA-UNION-
1124 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO THE AREA. A SECOND COMPLEX OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR FOUR OR FIVE INCHES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
MONDAY. REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE GULF COAST BY
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER AFTER
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENT RAIN COMBINED WITH PREVIOUS RAIN
EVENTS MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING OF AREA LAKES AND RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LAZ001>006-010>012-017-018-TXZ126-137-138-149>153-165>167-111630-
CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-
BIENVILLE-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-MARION-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
1124 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A COMPLEX OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND
THREE INCHES COULD POSSIBLY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AT ISOLATED
LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
MONDAY. REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE GULF COAST BY
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER AFTER
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENT RAIN COMBINED WITH PREVIOUS RAIN
EVENTS MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING OF AREA LAKES AND RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LAZ013-014-019>022-111630-
JACKSON-OUACHITA-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-
1124 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS AND INTO MONDAY EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE GULF COAST BY
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER AFTER
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENT RAIN COMBINED WITH PREVIOUS RAIN
EVENTS MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING OF AREA LAKES AND RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT BUT MAY BE
NEEDED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

ARZ050-051-059-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125-136-111630-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-
TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-SMITH-
1124 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.  A SECOND COMPLEX OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES COULD
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR FOUR OR FIVE
INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
MONDAY. REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY MONDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE GULF COAST BY
TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER AFTER
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENT RAIN COMBINED WITH PREVIOUS RAIN
EVENTS MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING OF AREA LAKES AND RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

VII

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