Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE 8 COUNTIES AND PARISHES FROM
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE 4 PARISHES IN A NEW TORNQADO WATCH
NUMBER 126 ACROSS LOWER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. /06/

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES IN EAST
TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF TOLEDO BEND AND PARTS OF SABINE PARISH IN
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF TORNADO WATCH 125 AND INTO TORNADO WATCH 126 DURING THE
REST OF THE MORNING. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX AND REACHED INTO EAST TEXAS NEAR TYLER AND SOUTH OF
LONGVIEW AND ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REACHED TO
THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW/S CENTER INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS. AN OCCULDED FRONT REACHED TO THE NORTHWEST FROM
THE TEXAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO ANOTHER SMALL SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS
NEAR BROWNSVILLE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND PROVIDING COLDER AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WERE EJECTING AROUND THE
BASE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE
AREA OF TEXAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE SURFACE SYSTEMS PROVIDING LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH WERE STRONG TO SEVERE...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LARGE HAIL AND STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SUCH A COMPLEX
SYSTEM...MOVMENT OF THE STORMS WERE SLOW AND WILL RESULT IN VERY
HEAVY RAIN SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE FROM NEAR ONE INCH
TO NEAR ONE AND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE
RED RIVER AND INTO ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE
SURFACE LOW/S SOUTH WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF
THE PAN HANDLE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET
PERIOD FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTINTG INTO NORTHWEST
MISSSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH ITS TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMAINTE THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE EATERN STATES BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH JUST
EAST OF OUR REGION AFFECTING THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  53  63  46 /  80  80  60  10
MLU  68  56  64  48 /  70  80  70  30
DEQ  65  49  60  42 /  80  80  60  10
TXK  66  51  61  46 /  80  80  60  10
ELD  66  51  59  44 /  70  80  70  30
TYR  71  54  64  47 /  80  80  40  10
GGG  71  53  63  48 /  80  80  40  10
LFK  73  59  68  50 /  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
751 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

LAZ010-011-017>022-TXZ149>153-165>167-271700-
DE SOTO-RED RIVER-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-
LA SALLE-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-
751 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF DEEP EAST
TEXAS AND LOWER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SPREADS NEAR THE
RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AIDING WITH
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-012>014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-271700-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-BIENVILLE-
JACKSON-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-
751 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DECREASING THIS MORNING BUT LOOK
TO RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SPREADS INTO THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY LIGHTNING
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SPREADS NEAR THE
RED RIVER OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AIDING WITH
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
642 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E SAN AUGUSTINE       31.53N 94.10W
04/27/2015                   SAN AUGUSTINE      TX   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF 353 AND
            147.

&&

NWS SHREVEPORT LA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
652 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSW SAN AUGUSTINE     31.47N 94.15W
04/27/2015                   SAN AUGUSTINE      TX   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ALONG COUNTY ROAD 332.

&&

NWS SHREVEPORT LA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
655 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE RUSK               31.78N 95.13W
04/27/2015                   CHEROKEE           TX   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
            OF CHEROKEE COUNTY.

&&

NWS SHREVEPORT LA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
709 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNE HUDSON            31.38N 94.77W
04/27/2015                   ANGELINA           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            POWER IS OUT 11 MILES NW OF LUFKIN. 3.58
            INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS.

&&

NWS SHREVEPORT LA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
718 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PINELAND                31.25N 93.98W
04/27/2015                   SABINE             TX   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER OUTAGE IN PINELAND.

&&

NWS SHREVEPORT LA
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
729 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE REKLAW             31.88N 94.97W
04/27/2015                   RUSK               TX   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ALONG COUNTY ROAD 4248.

&&

NWS SHREVEPORT LA
IRIS SYSTEM