River Flood Warning 80, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
213 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION THIS AFTN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MAKE ITS WAY NWD...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE SE QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. AS ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION BEGINS TO FILL IN FROM THE WEST...EXPECT SCATTERED
COVERAGE MOST OF REGION BY LATER IN EVE. AFTER A POSSIBLE LULL IN
ACTIVITY LATER EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MOISTURE
AS DEEP UPPER LOW OVER FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE ENE
ACROSS CO...AND INTO WESTERN KS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL TX ATTM. MODELS COMING TO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW THRU THE
WEEKEND....WITH POPS BEGINNING TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY CLEAR THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. A RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL MARK THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY RETURN TO THE AREA BY MID WEEK...
WILL BECOME MORE EPISODIC IN NATURE IN MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 114 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LA
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY AFFECT KMLU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONVECTION-WISE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD...THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY. HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP MENTION OF TSTMS OUT FOR
NOW...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY AS THE AFTERNOON PLAYS OUT.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS WILL LIKELY ROLL INTO MOST TERMINALS BETWEEN
06-09Z...AND HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. WINDS
WILL BE E TO SELY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. /12/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  79  66  78 /  40  50  60  70
MLU  66  78  66  75 /  40  50  60  70
DEQ  64  77  64  75 /  20  50  60  60
TXK  64  77  64  76 /  40  50  60  60
ELD  65  78  65  74 /  40  50  60  70
TYR  66  77  65  77 /  60  60  60  60
GGG  66  78  65  77 /  60  60  60  60
LFK  67  79  66  79 /  60  60  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1150 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-171700-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-
TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-
CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-
1150 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATER TODAY AS INCREASING MOISTURE
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...NO ORGANIZED THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COULD BECOME
PROBLEMATIC AS GROUNDS REMAIN NEAR SATURATION FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH NEW FLOODING OF SOME AREA LAKES AND RIVERS POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LAZ017>022-TXZ165>167-171700-
SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-
1150 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

RAIN HAS RETURNED TO THE REGION AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...NO ORGANIZED THREAT FOR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC AS
GROUNDS REMAIN NEAR SATURATION FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH NEW
FLOODING OF SOME AREA LAKES AND RIVERS POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

VII