River Flood Warning 240, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
412 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...

NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NM TO
CONTINUE MOVING NE INTO THE CENTRAL US THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THIS
SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS. IN TSTMS...EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO DECREASE TO IFR AT TIMES ACCORDINGLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

DURING EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE NEAR 13Z...EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME OF MONDAY.
/VIII./

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015/

DISCUSSION...
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EJECTING LEAD
SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED NE OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. BACK TO THE
W...SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT
CONTINUES EWD...AND WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION LATER
THIS MORNING. RAINFALL FROM THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION HAS
CAUSED A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF E
TX...AND THE RAINFALL THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SECOND ROUND WILL
LIKELY EXACERBATE THE ONGOING FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY...WHEN MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
SHIFT EWD INTO N LA/SRN AR. WITH REGARD TO THE SEVERE THREAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS...DESPITE VERY STRONG DEEP
LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP
THE THREAT RELATIVELY LOW. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES.

AT THE SFC...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS MADE FOR GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF TODAY. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF GRADUALLY TODAY FROM W TO E
BEGINNING THIS MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY BOTH
SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY AS A RESULT.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MAKING ITS WAY EWD THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN FINALLY EXITING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. WITH
NO REAL PUSH OF COOL AIR/HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF A COOL DOWN OTHER THAN WHAT THE
RAINFALL CAN OFFER. AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE NE...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW ON ITS HEELS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY...BRINGING SOME LOW-END CHANCES FOR RAIN TO OUR REGION
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. WE WILL SEE OUR TEMPS
FALL BACK DOWN TO AND BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AS AN
AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE TROF SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
KEEPS US SUPPLIED WITH REINFORCING CANADIAN AIRMASSES. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  47  68  45 / 100  10   0   0
MLU  73  47  68  44 / 100  50   0   0
DEQ  68  41  64  38 / 100  10   0   0
TXK  68  45  65  45 / 100  10   0   0
ELD  70  45  65  42 / 100  40   0   0
TYR  63  45  68  48 / 100  10   0   0
GGG  66  46  68  46 / 100  10   0   0
LFK  67  46  71  47 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ARZ050-051-059-060-
     070-071.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LAZ001-002-010.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ077.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ097-112-
     126-138-151>153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165-166.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ096-
     108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150.

&&

08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
447 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071-LAZ001-002-010-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165-166-132330-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-CADDO-
BOSSIER-DE SOTO-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
447 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AS
A LINE OF STORMS MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. THREE TO
FIVE INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE ALREADY
ONGOING FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND AMATEUR
RADIO OPERATORS...WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TODAY.

ARZ061-072-073-LAZ003>006-011>014-017>022-TXZ167-132330-
NEVADA-COLUMBIA-UNION-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-RED RIVER-
BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-
CALDWELL-LA SALLE-
447 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF
DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY. IN
ADDITION...ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND AMATEUR
RADIO OPERATORS...WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON
OR TONIGHT.

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
156 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      8 SE IDABEL             33.82N  94.72W
12/13/2015                   MCCURTAIN          OK   PUBLIC

            4 INCHES OF RAIN

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1500767

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
159 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0123 AM     FLASH FLOOD      8 SE IDABEL             33.82N  94.72W
12/13/2015                   MCCURTAIN          OK   PUBLIC

            4 INCHES OF RAIN

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER SHV1500767

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
204 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0138 AM     FLASH FLOOD      QUITMAN                 32.80N  95.44W
12/13/2015                   WOOD               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS FLOODED IN WESTERN WOOD COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1500768

09

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