River Flood Warning 204, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1222 PM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

.AVIATION...
LEADING EDGE OF INTENSE CONVECTION...ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH...
BEGINNING TO CREATE BOW SEGMENTS AS IT MOVES EAST OF I-49
CORRIDOR AND INTO WARMER AIR. ONSET OF TSTMS IN KMLU BY AROUND
20-21Z MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY 40 TO 60 KT WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION
TO POSSIBLE INCREASED TORNADIC POTENTIAL WITH STORMS. WIND GUSTS
WITH LEADING EDGE OF STORMS ARRIVING AT KELD 19-1930Z...WILL
LIKELY CONTAIN 40 TO NEAR 50 KTS WIND GUSTS. IN THE
MEANTIME...WINDS FROM THE SSE AT 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL
PREVAIL MOST OF NORTH LA AND SW AR EAST OF I-30. POST TROUGH WINDS
AT KTXK...KLFK...AND KSHV NW 15 TO 20 KTS...DIMINISHING AND BECMG
SOUTHERLY AFTER RAINFALL DIMINISHES AFTER 21Z. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS
BUT VRBL DECKS IN RAIN BEFORE ENDING. SKIES BECMG VFR BY 18/00Z IN
NE TX...SPREADING EASTWARD WITH MID LVL DECKS. SKIES BECMG MOSTLY
VFR SKC AFTER 18/06Z. SW WINDS BTWN 5 TO 10 KTS TO PREVAIL AFTER
SKIES BECOME SKC./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE ISSUED FOR ALL PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPIRATION
OF TOR WATCH 543 AT 15Z FOR SE OK AND PORTIONS OF E TX..AND THE
ISSUANCE OF NEW TOR WATCH 545 UNTIL 22Z ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA. ALL OTHER HEADLINES REMAIN VALID.

/09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/

UPDATE...
TO ADD TORNADO WATCH HEADLINE...MAINLY TEXAS ZONES AND SOME IN SW
ARKANSAS AND ONE IN SE OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
WCN FOR TORNADO WATCH 543 UNTIL 15Z/9AM HAS BEEN ISSUED. NO OTHER
CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN A VERY WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH AIR TEMPERATURES
ABOVE WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS LOWS. CLOUDY SKIES WITH
GUSTY S/SW WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES...EVEN
PEAKING NEAR 30 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS. RADAR MOSAICS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A STEADY PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT EDGING TOWARD TERRELL TEXAS NOW AND SHOULD BE INTO
TYLER FOR THE MORNING RUSH TO WORK AND SCHOOL. THIS LINE WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD AT 35 MPH AFFECTING THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA BY
SUNSET. THE RAIN WILL COOL THE AIR A BIT...BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE THE REAL DIFFERENCE ON TEMPS AND A LIGHT JACKET IS A GREAT
IDEA ESPECIALLY FOR THE SCHOOL KIDS. 70S WILL QUICKLY BECOME 50S
AND 60S BEHIND THE RAIN.

THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY IS A SLIGHT RISK EVERYWHERE AND EVEN
ENHANCED FOR AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM MAGNOLIA ARKANSAS...TO NEAR SHREVEPORT AND BOSSIER
CITY...DOWN INTO TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY AT MANY. THE DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BRING TO BEAR THE MOST INSTABILITY TO THE SQUALL LINE WITH
BOWING SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ON EAST TO CROSSETT...MONROE AND ALEXANDRIA. LITTLE
CHANGE ON GOING LAKE WIND ADVISORY OR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
TODAY. WE WILL LCL HAVE MANY UPDATES TODAY WITH A CONVECTIVE
WATCH LIKELIHOOD DEVELOPING RIGHT NOW DUE TO THE FAST SPEED OF
THE LINE AND GOING UP FOR AN AFTERNOON SET OF COUNTIES AND
PARISHES. KEEP ABREAST OF THE SITUATION TODAY WITH NOAA WX
RADIO/COMMERCIAL RADIO AND TV OUTLETS AND SOCIAL MEDIA. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  47  67  45 / 100  40  10   0
MLU  76  49  68  44 / 100 100  10   0
DEQ  71  41  64  39 / 100  10   0   0
TXK  73  45  65  45 / 100  20   0   0
ELD  73  44  64  41 / 100  90  10   0
TYR  68  46  67  46 / 100  10  10   0
GGG  73  45  69  45 / 100  10  10   0
LFK  74  47  70  45 / 100  30  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
918 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ097-112-
126-138-150>153-165>167-181200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-BOWIE-CASS-MARION-HARRISON-RUSK-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
918 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF
EAST TEXAS UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION
UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. THESE STORMS WOULD POSE AN ENHANCED THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION...TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OKZ077-TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-181200-
MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-WOOD-UPSHUR-SMITH-
GREGG-CHEROKEE-
918 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. A FEW STORMS
COULD ALSO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES BEING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

09

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>