River Flood Warning 174, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL VORT NOTED IN THE WV ALONG THE AR/OK BORDER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER SRN AR/NRN LA WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY THIS
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS HAS LED TO FLASH FLOODING OF MANY AREAS
OVER SRN AR...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT
TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE
PARISHES IN LA AND HAVE ALSO EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 7 PM.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FLOODING RISK...MUCH OF THIS AREA IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 7 PM...MOST LIKELY DUE TO
THE VORT EXITING THE REGION AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS
WILL REMAIN TO BE SEEN...BUT WOULD BE THE BEST CASE FOR HOLIDAY
FIREWORKS SHOWS.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MOST ELEMENTS FOR
TODAY...INCLUDING TEMPS/POPS/QPF...ALTHOUGH MOST CHANGES ARE
MINOR. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD AND BUMP POPS/WX AS WELL.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS FROM TEXARKANA...WEST INTO NEAR
MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS WITH HEAVY BANDS AND TRAINING EASTWARD TOWARD
MAGNOLIA AND EL DORADO. MOVEMENT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING MAY BE
UNFOLDING WITH THE PRE HEATING ENVIRONMENT. FOR NOW WE HAVE
EXPANDED OUR SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE
UNTIL 1 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO DEFINITE
IS SOME OF THE WATCH AREA. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY OVER NW AR AND NE OK MAY BE MOVING A BIT MORE THE EAST OVER
THE LAST HOUR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES AND
SHORE UP WITH GROUND TRUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR
ADDITION FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO THIS SITUATION AS
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROLIFIC WITH SOME OF THE TALL STORM CELLS. WE
STILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING AND COULD
SEE SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH DRY AIR BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL OF
14369 FT. STAY TUNED WITH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FRESH BATTERIES
WHILE IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL AND
NATIONAL NEWS MEDIA WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING CONTINUING TO UNFOLD
IN PARTS OF THE NATURAL STATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
DIVERGENT NW FLOW ALOFT WITH AN TSTM COMPLEX FROM KDEQ...TO NEAR
KTXK...TO NEAR KELD. MOVEMENT IS SOUTHEAST AT 25 KTS. LOW LEVEL
JET FLOW INTO THE ACTIVITY IS RICH WITH GULF MOISTURE. EXPECT
GUSTS AND TURBULENCE IN VCNTY. ALSO ALONG I-30 NEW DEVELOPMENT
WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH TSTM AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FROM KTYR TO
KSHV. SFC WINDS WILL BE S/SW 10KTS WITH CLIMB WINDS SW 20-40KTS.
UNCHANGING PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE
NOCTURNAL AND HEATING TSTM ACTIVITY WITH HOT AND DRY NEW WEEK.

DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNION CO...UNION PARISH AND
CLAIBORNE PARISH UNTIL 1 PM FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS AN MCS
SAGS DEEPER INTO OUR AREA WHERE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY
VERIFIED THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR GOOD
MEASURE WITH TREES DOWN ALONG I-30. OUR KSHV 88D RADAR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN MAKERS AND LIGHTNING PRODUCERS FROM MC
CURTAIN CO OK IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS WITH FLOODING THE
PRIMARY THREAT THIS MORNING. THE HRRR PROGRESSES THIS RAIN AREA
INTO THE FLOOD WATCH AREA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT LEAST.
THE GFS IS SIMILAR WITH A CORE TRAJECTORY OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CHANGES TO THE
WATCH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RADAR
TRENDS INTO HEATING...ESPECIALLY TAIL END CHARLIE NORTH OF
TEXARKANA RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE CONTENT WITH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. WE/LL WHAT THE VORT DOES SOON.

SHORT TERM...
OTHERWISE...WE SEE MUGGY UPPER 70S OUTSIDE OF THIS
RAIN AREA/S COOL POOL. A SOLID LLJ LIFTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING OVER THE COOL POOL...ALL UNDER VERY
DIVERGENT AIR ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX/NM AND
A DEEP LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THE WATER VAPOR EVEN SHOWS
A SHORT WAVE VORT DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LONG WAVE OVER NE OK
AND NW AR...MOVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE MID LEVEL
PLAYING FIELD AS WELL. 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN A FEW LOCALES. AS THIS ACTIVITY IS STRONGER THAN
YESTERDAYS PUSH...WE MAY SEE THE CLUSTER HOLD TOGETHER INTO AND
THEREBY PLUGGING INTO THE LATE MORNING HEATING. BUT IF NOT...A
SOLID BOUNDARY WILL EMERGE WITH LIKELY AND DEFINITE POPS WARRANTED
TO START THE DAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/ARKLAMISS WELL INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SOME MAY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL OR PERHAPS DAMAGING
WINDS IN AND AROUND HEAVY DOWN POURS FALLING INTO 90 DEGREE HEAT.

LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DEPARTING NE TROUGH
ALLOWING THE HOT AND DRY UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST...TO LIFT AND
EXPAND BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY...BUT
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SUPER BLEND AND ALL BLEND HAVE BEEN FAVORED
HIGHLY FOR MUCH OF THE PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  90  75 /  40  30  30  20
MLU  85  72  88  73 /  80  50  60  20
DEQ  84  71  86  72 /  50  30  40  30
TXK  86  72  88  74 /  50  30  60  30
ELD  84  71  87  73 / 100  50  40  30
TYR  88  74  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
GGG  88  73  91  75 /  30  20  30  10
LFK  91  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ071>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ004>006-014.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
848 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ARZ071>073-LAZ004-006-051400-
LAFAYETTE-COLUMBIA-UNION-CLAIBORNE-
848 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND FOR NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED...TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING...SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
FINALLY...LIGHTNING CAN BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.. IF THUNDER ROARS...GO INDOORS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...NOT ONLY DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT MORE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY AS WELL. THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND COULD BRING
UP ONE TO THREE OF RAINFALL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOT AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE NEW
WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING WILL BE ONGOING...SPOTTER ACTIVATION
IS MAY BE NEEDED FOR HIGH WATER ISSUES THIS MORNING.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125-136-137-
149-150-152-165-051400-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-MCCURTAIN-
RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-SMITH-
GREGG-CHEROKEE-RUSK-NACOGDOCHES-ANGELINA-
848 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...FOR DEEP EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING AND MOVING EASTWARD. SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
FINALLY...LIGHTNING CAN BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.. IF THUNDER ROARS...GO INDOORS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...NOT ONLY DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT MORE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY AS WELL. THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND COULD BRING
UP ONE TO THREE OF RAINFALL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOT AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE NEW
WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LAZ001>003-005-010>014-017>022-TXZ126-138-151-153-166-167-051400-
CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-
OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MARION-
HARRISON-PANOLA-SHELBY-SAN AUGUSTINE-
848 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. IN ADDITION...LIGHTNING CAN BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES DURING
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IF THUNDER ROARS...GO INDOORS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...NOT ONLY DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT MORE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY AS WELL. THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND COULD BRING
UP ONE TO THREE OF RAINFALL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS MAY BRING DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
911 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NE PRESCOTT           33.85N  93.33W
07/04/2015                   NEVADA             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TRAIN TRESTLE WASHED OUT IN THE BOUGHTON COMMUNITY
            NORTHEAST OF PRESCOTT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1500666

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
912 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0911 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PRESCOTT                33.80N  93.39W
07/04/2015                   NEVADA             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS ROADWAYS UNDERWATER IN AND AROUND THE PRESCOTT
            COMMUNITY INLCUDING HWY. 67...32 AND 19.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1500667

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
923 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE PRESCOTT          33.86N  93.35W
07/04/2015                   NEVADA             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG INTERSTATE 30...NORTHEAST OF PRESCOTT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1500668

20

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1016 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E BLEVINS             33.87N  93.51W
07/04/2015                   HEMPSTEAD          AR   PUBLIC

            A SECTION OF US HWY 371 WAS WASHED OUT EAST OF BLEVINS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1500669

20

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1045 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PRESCOTT                33.80N  93.39W
07/04/2015                   NEVADA             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            U.S. HWY 67 IS CLOSED AT HWY 332 INTERSECTION DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1500670

20

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1047 AM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PRESCOTT                33.80N  93.39W
07/04/2015                   NEVADA             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            U.S. HWY 67 IS CLOSED AT HWY 332 INTERSECTION DUE TO
            FLOODING. THERE WAS ALSO A WATER RESCUE AT SAME LOCATION
            DUE TO A SUBMERGED VEHICLE.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER SHV1500670

20