Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Shreveport, LA

367 
WGUS74 KSHV 100028
FFSSHV

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
728 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015

TXC183-423-459-499-100300-
/O.CON.KSHV.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150310T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREGG TX-SMITH TX-UPSHUR TX-WOOD TX-
728 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
WOOD...UPSHUR...SMITH AND GREGG COUNTIES...

AT 721 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO 
DETECT HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE 
WARNED AREA WHICH HAS ALREADY RECEIVED NEAR THREE INCHES OF RAIN.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WINNSBORO...
WEST MOUNTAIN...ROSEWOOD...QUITMAN...PLEASANT GROVE...ORE CITY...
MINEOLA...HOARD...HAINESVILLE...GOLDEN...GILMER...DIANA AND CEDAR
SPRINGS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 9518 3300 9515 3290 9514 3290 9471
      3285 9470 3283 9467 3282 9470 3243 9471
      3240 9458 3237 9459 3237 9498 3214 9499
      3214 9546 3224 9548 3235 9545 3248 9559
      3269 9560 3272 9563 3295 9566

$$

PARKER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
357 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SURGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MOVG NWD ACROSS EAST TX...IN RESPONSE TO
WARM FRONT MOVG NWD AS UPPER TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO EJECT AND MOVE
ACROSS THE TX BIG BEND. HAVE LEFT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA AS
IS...BUT HAVE EXTENDED TIME AN ADDITIONAL THREE HOURS
TONIGHT...EXPIRING AT 4 AM TUE MORNING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
RAIN SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD THRU AREA FOR MUCH OF DAY
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THAT NAM RETROGRADES THIS MOISTURE TOO
QUICKLY BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND WILL OPT CLOSER
TO GFS...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A MID WEEK BREAK BEFORE RAIN MOVES BACK
INTO THE AREA. BY WEEKEND...WHEN DEEP SOUTHERLY MID AND UPPER LVL
FLOW...BECOMES MORE ZONAL...ALLOWING FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN ONCE AGAIN WITH REGARD TO THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 107 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015/

AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH REDUCED VSBYS IN -RA/-DZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THAT
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT N INTO DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF SHRA OVER CNTRL/SE TX WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NNE INTO E TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO SW
AR/NCNTRL LA THIS EVENING NEAR A WEAK SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR CLL AS
OF 17Z...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE NE TO NEAR LFK AROUND 00Z
TUESDAY...SHV AROUND 06Z...AND ELD AROUND 12Z. LIFR CIGS SHOULD
PERSIST AS THIS SHRA OVERSPREADS THE REGION...WITH VSBYS OF 1-2SM
EXPECTED. CAN/T RULE OUT EMBEDDED TSRA AS WELL TONIGHT...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. THE HEAVIEST SHRA
SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E AFTER 06Z...CLEARING THE
TXK/SHV TERMINALS BY 09Z...ELD AROUND 12Z...AND MLU AFTER 15Z.
CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ONCE THE SHRA DIMINISHES...WITH A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY MIDMORNING OVER E TX/NW LA/EXTREME SW
AR. CIGS SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM W TO E AFTER 12Z ONCE THE
-DZ DIMINISHES AS WELL. ENE WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME NNE N OF THE SFC LOW THIS EVENING OVER NE TX/SW AR...AND
SSE 5-10KTS OVER NCNTRL LA EAST OF THE SFC LOW. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  64  51  68  53 /  90  50  10  10  40
MLU  53  66  54  66  55 /  90  60  30  30  70
DEQ  46  61  47  70  50 / 100  20  10  10  10
TXK  47  61  49  68  52 / 100  40  10  10  20
ELD  51  62  49  66  53 /  90  50  20  20  40
TYR  49  62  50  69  52 /  90  20  10  10  10
GGG  51  62  50  69  52 / 100  30  10  10  20
LFK  55  64  53  69  54 /  90  30  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1208 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-101715-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-
1208 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE EVENT OF ONE TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN WILL MAKE A
RESURGENCE INTO NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY...
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-101715-
WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1208 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LAST WEEK OR SO...AND THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO SOME FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE EVENT OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE RAIN BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY FLOODING
THREAT WILL MOST LIKELY COME TO AN END BY TUESDAY MORNING... AND NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

VII