Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Shreveport, LA

299 
WGUS74 KSHV 140031
FFSSHV

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
731 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

TXC073-347-401-140200-
/O.CON.KSHV.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-150514T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RUSK TX-NACOGDOCHES TX-CHEROKEE TX-
731 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
RUSK...NACOGDOCHES AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES...

AT 726 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED STREET FLOODING 
IN AN AROUND THE CITY OF NACOGDOCHES. RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF TWO 
INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF 
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE NEXT HOUR. AREAS 
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING FLOODING...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE 
FLOODING FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NACOGDOCHES...JACKSONVILLE...HENDERSON...KILGORE...RUSK...OVERTON...
BULLARD...TROUP...TATUM...ALTO...NEW LONDON...GARRISON...WELLS...
MOUNT SELMAN...MAYDELLE...DOUGLASS...MORRILL...JOINERVILLE...FOREST
AND MIXON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP CHILDREN AWAY FROM STORM DRAINS...CULVERTS...CREEKS AND STREAMS.
WATER LEVELS CAN RISE RAPIDLY AND SWEEP CHILDREN AWAY.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3214 9499 3237 9498 3239 9449 3220 9458
      3198 9460 3197 9451 3164 9439 3159 9431
      3123 9432 3122 9433 3144 9456 3153 9487
      3143 9500 3147 9510 3159 9517 3158 9526
      3168 9529 3185 9544 3205 9542 3213 9546

$$

VII

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
355 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONT IS POISED TO SURGE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST TEXAS
ESPECIALLY...PROMPTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 06Z OR 1 AM. IT
IS LIKELY MUCH OF THIS WILL BE OVER BY THEN BUT NORTH OF I-30
COULD BE ONGOING AND NEED AN EXTENSION DEPENDING ON THE PUSH AND
LIFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

OTHERWISE...IS HAS BEEN A NICE LATE WINTER LIKE DAY WITH MOSTLY
LIGHT RAIN STILL EXITING TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM SOME WEAK
OVERRUNNING OF THE COOLER AIR MASS STILL HOLDING ON TO THE FOUR
STATE AREA. OUR SURFACE WINDS ARE VEERING A BIT MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AND PARTS OF KISATCHIE. WE ARE A
BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND COULD BE TOO COOL AGAIN DEPENDING
ON THE SURGE OF DEW POINTS OFF THE GULF...IT IS A TOUGH CALL TO
NAIL DOWN. AT ANY RATE IT WILL BE BACK TO THE MUGGIES BY MORNING
AREA WIDE.

THE SHORT TERM PICTURE IS PRETTY CLEAR...BUT NOTHING TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT IN THE LONGER TERM IF YOU HAPPEN TO LIKE SPRING
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. WE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO ALL BLENDS GOING
FORWARD WITH HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND POPS. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HELP TO BRING SOME CHANGE...BUT
CONSIDERING THIS PAST FRONT/S ENTRANCE AND SOON TO BE EXIT...THE
MONTHLY TOTALS FOR RAIN LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR PERHAPS AN AVERAGE
SEASON. MEANWHILE...OUR HYDROLOGIC INTERESTS WILL BEAR LONG
WATCHING AS EVEN AFTER THE RAIN GETS BACK TO NORMAL...AS RELEASES
FROM UPSTREAM WILL KEEP RIVERS AND LAKES HIGH PERHAPS INTO SOME OF
NEXT MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  83  68  83 /  60  40  40  50
MLU  65  84  69  85 /  30  30  20  50
DEQ  62  81  66  82 /  60  40  40  50
TXK  64  80  68  83 /  60  40  40  50
ELD  62  81  68  83 /  50  30  40  50
TYR  68  83  70  82 /  60  40  20  50
GGG  67  84  70  83 /  60  40  40  50
LFK  69  84  70  85 /  50  40  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165-166.

&&

24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-141700-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF SOUTH ARKANSAS AND
FOR ALL OF NORTH LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION
TODAY. HOWEVER...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. MUCH OF THIS WILL BE HIT OR MISS DAYTIME ACTIVITY. AND
WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN COMBINED WITH CURRENT
CREST EXPECTATIONS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING OF SOME AREA
LAKES AND RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-141700-
MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-
UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE-
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY. WHILE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...A FEW ISOLATED
TROUBLE SPOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY UNDER HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS OR WHERE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NEXT WEEK AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CREEP IN
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
AND BECOMES STALLED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN COMBINED WITH CURRENT CREST EXPECTATIONS COULD
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING OF SOME AREA LAKES AND RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

24