Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
215 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125 FOR LOWER HALF OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND TO INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS EAST INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS
NORTH LOUISIANA NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. AN INVERTED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTNEDED NORTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...WHILE A TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REACHED TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND
AREA. ALOFT A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EJECTING AROUND THE BASE OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PAN HANDLE AREA
OF TEXAS. THIS COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMSFROM WEST TEXAS INTO TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...KANSAS...AND APPROACHING NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS NEAR THE RED RIVER AND INTO
ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA...NUDGING THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH WITH
THE COLD FRONT REACHING TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AN OCCULUDED FRONT INTO LOWER PARTS OF THE PAN HANDLE
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS
AND MEXICO. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WET PERIOD FOR THE
FOUR STATE REGION ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  66  54  60  45 /  70  80  80  60  10
MLU  56  66  56  63  47 /  50  50  70  70  30
DEQ  48  63  48  59  40 /  80  80  80  60  10
TXK  48  65  48  59  45 /  80  80  80  60  10
ELD  50  65  50  55  43 /  80  50  70  70  20
TYR  54  67  54  59  47 /  80  80  80  50  10
GGG  53  67  53  60  47 /  80  80  80  50  10
LFK  57  73  57  65  49 /  70  80  80  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1019 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

ARZ050-051-059-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150-
271200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-
TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-WOOD-UPSHUR-SMITH-GREGG-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
1019 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PRECEDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG IN INTENSITY WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH MONDAY AND SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
WITH A CONTINUED SUPPLY OF GULF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE REGION
AROUND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND
COLDER AIR SPREADING SOUTH WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE AND S SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG
THE GULF COAST OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI LATE TUESDAY. A FEW OF
THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE AND
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND PONDING OF WATER IN STREETS AND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

ARZ060-061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ112-126-138-
151>153-165>167-271530-
HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-
WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-
OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-CASS-
MARION-HARRISON-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
1018 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PRECEDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH MONDAY AND SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
WITH A CONTINUED SUPPLY OF GULF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE REGION
AROUND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND
COLDER AIR SPREADING SOUTH WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS UNTIL AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE AND S SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG
THE GULF COAST OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI LATE TUESDAY. A FEW OF
THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE AND
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND PONDING OF WATER IN STREETS AND LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
224 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

OKZ077-270815-
MCCURTAIN OK-
224 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MCCURTAIN COUNTY UNTIL 315 AM
CDT...

AT 223 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF IDABEL...OR 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLARKSVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IDABEL...BROKEN BOW...HAWORTH...GARVIN...OAK HILL...HOLLY CREEK...
GOLDEN...GLOVER...GOODWATER...EAGLETOWN AND FARMERS HILL.

LAT...LON 3400 9447 3395 9448 3373 9480 3377 9482
      3376 9483 3373 9482 3375 9487 3379 9492
      3381 9492 3381 9495 3383 9494 3384 9497
      3386 9497 3385 9499 3386 9500 3387 9505
      3421 9490
TIME...MOT...LOC 0723Z 221DEG 23KT 3384 9492

09

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
356 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

ARZ060-061-270945-
NEVADA AR-HEMPSTEAD AR-
356 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 356 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PERRYTOWN...OR NEAR HOPE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOPE...PRESCOTT...EMMET...PERRYTOWN...SUTTON...LANEBURG AND BOUGHTON.

LAT...LON 3395 9336 3392 9334 3390 9330 3384 9329
      3384 9326 3383 9326 3383 9323 3380 9318
      3381 9314 3355 9350 3361 9361 3395 9340
TIME...MOT...LOC 0856Z 218DEG 17KT 3364 9351

09