Small Craft Advisory for Winds 2, NWS San Diego, CA

ZCZC LAXWRKAFD 041935
TTAA00 KLAX DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
116 PM PDT SAT APR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL RETURN CALIFORNIA TO MORE
SEASONAL EARLY SPRING WEATHER NEXT WEEK. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
IS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
AND GUSTY MOUNTAIN AND DESERT WINDS...AND BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY INLAND. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FALLING AS SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. FAIR AND
DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SLIGHT WARMING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS AND VIRGA DEVELOPED NE OVER SW CA TODAY...
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE FAIR. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE WEAK...
BUT TURNING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
WERE RESPONDING ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP. AT MIDDAY TEMPERATURES WERE
A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND DEWPOINTS WERE SHOWING SOME
NICE JUMPS.

MUCH COOLER ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COOLING WILL BE FELT WELL INLAND ON SUNDAY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIR THROUGH SUN...BUT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG.

A COLD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CA INTO NV BY WED. THERE
ARE STILL SOME MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS
REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
STRAY FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE ONCOMING STORM WILL DROP SFC
PRESSURES OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND INCREASE THE WESTERLY WINDS
OVER SOCAL LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ONSHORE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OF AROUND 10 MBS TO NV WILL FUEL STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER THE MTN RIDGES AND INTO THE DESERTS...LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SPOTS BY LATE SUN WITH SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND LOCAL
GUSTS 45-55 MPH. WINDS/GUSTS MAY BE EVEN STRONGER BY TUE AS A SFC
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.

THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN OVER SOCAL THROUGH WED MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE RAPID
DEEPENING...BUT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IS MUCH MORE LIKELY TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND LIFTS THE DEEP
MARINE LAYER. MODEL TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS SHOW THE HIGH RH
EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT 600 MBS BRIEFLY TUE NIGHT...SO SOME OF THE
SHOWERS MAY FALL AS SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN BERNARDINO MTS
WHERE THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 5500 FT. AT THIS
TIME...FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT DUE TO THE PROJECTED
TRACK OF THE STORM AND THE LACK OF GOOD JET DYNAMICS THIS FAR SOUTH.

FAIR AND SEASONALLY COOL SPRING WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SOME MINOR WARMING BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
042100Z...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL RETURN TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING
KSAN AND KCRQ 05Z-08Z. CIGS WILL IKELY START OUT LOW...AROUND 800 FT
MSL...BUT WILL LIKELY RISE TO AROUND 1200 FT MSL BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE COULD BE AREAS OF REDUCED VIS LATE TONIGHT...MOSTLY NEAR
HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY 17Z SUN.

OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 15000 FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE... 200 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE OUTER WATERS.
COMBINED SEAS COULD REACH 6-8 FEET DURING THAT TIME DUE TO WIND
WAVES AND A SHORT PERIOD WNW SWELL.

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 5 AM PDT
     MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
     BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE
     ISLAND.

&&

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...PG