Small Craft Advisory 10, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... IT WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY WARM DAY TODAY...THOUGH NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR
PERIODICALLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
CONTINUES...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...MAINLY IN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. DRY WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE CLEAR THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF
STRATUS/FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES
LOWER IN COASTAL AREAS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO STANDARD TIME BUT ARE
SIMILAR OVER MOST INLAND AREAS. OVERALL...WITH MORE OF A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING TODAY...COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLER WITH MOSTLY 70S
WITHIN ABOUT 3-5 MILES THE COAST AND 80S TO LOCALLY NEAR 90 IN THE
VALLEYS. THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS AND SOME FOG SHOULD ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING ON MONDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER
DEEPENS RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.

THE UPPER LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE INTO SO-CAL LATE
MONDAY...WITH PRECIP LIKELY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER
ORANGE COUNTY AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE/SBD
MOUNTAINS...THEN SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE EVENING...BASED
ON DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE PROFILES. THE MOISTURE STILL ONLY GOES UP
TO ABOUT 800 MB IN MOST AREAS...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT...THOUGH WITH A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THERE
COULD BE AN HOUR OR SO OF DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN MODERATE RAIN.
OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE 1/4 INCH OR LESS AT THE COAST...BUT 1/2 TO
LOCALLY ONE INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCAL WRF SHOWING DECENT
PRECIP IN THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS IN THAT RANGE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHICS AND DYNAMICS THERE. COLDER AIR WILL BE
ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT AS 700 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -5
C...BUT...THAT WILL BE MOSTLY AFTER THE BEST MOISTURE IS HERE...SO
SNOWFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS...ABOVE ABOUT 6000-
6500 FEET...PROBABLY ONLY 1-2 INCHES. THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY
ALOFT DUE TO THE COLD CORE...BUT AGAIN THAT WILL BE AFTER MOST OF
THE PRECIP MOVES THROUGH...SO WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. A PERIOD OF MODERATE STRONG WINDS DUE TO
STRENGTHENING MSLP/THERMAL/HEIGHT GRADIENTS...WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH
POSSIBLE...WILL OCCUR FROM THE MOUNTAIN CRESTS EAST/NORTHEAST TO THE
DESERT FOOTHILLS...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME MOISTURE WILL BE LINGERING
TUE/WED...BUT PRECIP SHOULD MOSTLY BE LIGHT THEN AND MOSTLY IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY DUE TO BEST OVER-THE-WATER TRAJECTORIES AND BEST TRACK
OF THE WAVES MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE THE
LOWEST SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH A LOT OF 60S IN THE VALLEYS AND
POSSIBLY NOT REACHING 40 AT BIG BEAR EITHER TUE OR WED. SOME 30S
COULD OCCUR IN COLDEST VALLEYS...SUCH AS RAMONA OR CORONA...STARTING
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER WED...THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND WE ENTER A PERIOD OF
NORTHWEST FLOW. SOME RIDGING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WILL
OCCUR...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS RECENT RIDGES. TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE TO
NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
NOTHING EXTREME. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR...BUT THERMAL SUPPORT
SO FAR LOOKS UNFAVORABLE FOR MORE THAT LOCALLY GUSTY MODERATE WINDS
IN THE MOUNTAINS/COASTAL FOOTHILLS.

&&

.AVIATION...
011730Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SKC WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH INLAND BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z MONDAY. CIGS MAY
INITIALLY BE RELATIVELY LOW...AROUND 400-700 FT MSL...WITH VIS
RESTRICTIONS OF 2 SM OR LESS POSSIBLE AT KSAN...KCRQ...AND KSNA. VIS
WILL FALL BELOW 1/2 SM AT TIMES ALONG THE HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN.
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR IMPACTS AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES APPEARS
TO BE 06Z TO 10Z. BASES SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY 12Z...WITH LOW
CLOUDS PUSHING 10-25 MILES INLAND BY 14Z MONDAY. BKN-OVC CIGS NEAR
2000 FT MSL WILL PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER DESERT
SLOPES AFTER 10Z MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 KT POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED A KPSP OR KTRM.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS..SKC-FEW WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL PREVAIL
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
930 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING...AND
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT
AND GUSTS TO 34 KT ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. COMBINED SEAS NEAR OR ABOVE 10 FT AND STEEP WAVES WILL ALSO
CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. SHOWERS
WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED ACTIVITY OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...ALBRIGHT