High Surf Advisory 5, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
154 PM PDT WED SEP 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE HOT WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH SLOW COOLING FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE INLAND
AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...LEADING TO AN ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...AS MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE LINDA MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN COASTAL AREAS MAY
SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. COOLER AND
DRIER NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MORNING SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH 1.65 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND 780 J/KG OF
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. CURRENT SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-1500 J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE. THUS...RADAR SHOWS THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ERUPTING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...HIGH DESERTS AND VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS
IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THE WRF SHOWING 700-500 MB WINDS OUT OF THE
EAST OF AROUND 10-15 KT AND THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SETTING
UP IN THE VALLEYS...THIS IS RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING IN
THE VALLEY AREAS TODAY. IN FACT...THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THAT THE
SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD DRIFT INTO THE COASTAL AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS FOR THOSE AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

ON THURSDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 2 INCHES ACCORDING TO
THE GFS AND NAM...AS THE CIRCULATION OF LINDA MOVES NORTHWEST TO A
POSITION FAR WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA...RESULTING IN CONTINUED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGING THE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WRF SHOWS THE
EAST WINDS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER INCREASING TO 20 KT...WHICH MEANS
THAT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING QUICKER AND THAT THEY MAY BE ABLE TO
DRIFT INTO COASTAL AREAS AS WELL. ONE POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR ON
THURSDAY IS IF THERE IS TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER...WHICH COULD DECREASE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
IN THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY DECREASING TO
1.7-1.8 INCHES UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM
THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY WITH
MOISTURE DIMINISHING A LITTLE...AND THEN THE GFS SHOWS MOISTURE
DECREASING FURTHER ON SUNDAY. FOR DETAILS ON THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

THE HEAT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS IS THE OTHER STORY...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
WERE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE LOW OF 77 DEGREES AT LINDBERGH
FIELD WAS ONE DEGREE BELOW THE ALL-TIME HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE.
CURRENTLY...THE TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ARE HIGHER THAN AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SOME EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CIRCULATION OF LINDA COULD BRING CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS TO THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COAST AND VALLEYS THURSDAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT
DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS HOT AS THE MODELS WERE SHOWING YESTERDAY. A
SLOW COOLING TREND LOOKS TO START FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS
AND WE GET A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS COULD RETURN BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
092000Z...GENERALLY...NO VIS RESTRICTIONS INTO THURSDAY
WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUDS ABOVE 10000 FEET MSL. BETWEEN 09/20-10/02Z
THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND VALLEYS WITH BASES 8000 FEET MSL AND TOPS TO
45000 FEET. EXPECT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS...MAINLY SMALL
HAIL...AND SURFACE GUSTS OVER 35 KT NEAR ANY STORM. IN STORMS LOCAL
VIS REDUCED TO 2SM IN HEAVY RAIN AND/OR BLOWING DUST IN DESERTS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF A VERY LOW RISK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR KSAN
TONIGHT IS HIGH...WITH EVEN LESS RISK OF LOW CLOUDS AT KONT
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
1255 PM...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
1255 PM...A NEW SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HURRICANE LINDA WILL
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL PRODUCE 4-
6 FOOT SURF AT ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES INTO FRIDAY...WITH A FEW HIGHER
SETS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEACHES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
IN EFFECT FOR ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATE TO HIGH FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND THE VALLEYS...DUE TO THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ERUPTING OVER THE INLAND
EMPIRE...HIGH DESERTS AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNT MOUNTAINS. THE WINDS
ALOFT ARE SOMEWHAT WEAK AS WELL...RESULTING IN SOME SLOW MOVING
STORMS WHICH ARE INCREASING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING FURTHER.
RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THE
HEAVIER STORMS. FLASH FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN FOREST FALLS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY BE MOVING
QUICKER ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD DIMINISH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT A
BIT. HOWEVER...TRAINING STORMS COULD BE A CONCERN. THE THREAT LOWERS
FURTHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASES.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY...AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR APPLE AND LUCERNE
     VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
     COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN
     GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY VALLEYS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SMALL

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