Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0322 AM CDT FRI AUG 07 2015

Convection has developed over southwestern Missouri fueled by a
shortwave aloft and modest low level jet/moisture transport. HRRR
and RAP has good handle on this and pushes it southeast into south
central Missouri shortly after 12Z and should weaken and dissipate
through midday. After that, upper level high over the southern
plains and southwest conus will expand northeast towards the
Ozarks later today and tonight. This will be the beginning of
warming temperatures. Expect mainly sunny skies by this afternoon
which will aid in the rise. Expect warmest readings across
southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri where highs will be in
the lower to middle 90s, and just middle 80s over the eastern
Ozarks. Heat index values will flirt with advisory criteria for a
few hours this afternoon over southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri, but will hold off on any headlines. A warm and humid
night is in store tonight with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 0322 AM CDT FRI AUG 07 2015

Main forecast concern in this time frame is heat and heat index
values for both Saturday and Sunday and the need for any heat
related headlines. Upper ridge firmly in place across the Ozarks
both days. The hottest days looks to be Sunday with heat index
values in the 105 to 110 degree range. will likely need advisories
area-wide Sunday and perhaps only the western half of the forecast
area Saturday.

Medium range models continue to advertise a shortwave breaking down
the northern extent of the ridge Sunday night and Monday allowing
for a frontal boundary to make into the area. This will bring rain
chances back into the forecast, with the better chances across
central Missouri. It will also help cool temperatures off. This
wave should be east of the area later Monday with northwest flow
and surface high pressure nudging into the area for Tuesday
through Thursday, for cooler and quieter weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT THU AUG 06 2015

VFR conditions at area terminals will persist much of the
overnight. However changes are anticipated overnight as scattered
showers and thunderstorms develop from southeastern Kansas into
southwestern Missouri north of a warm front. This could result in
thunderstorms in the terminal vicinities and intervals of MVFR
conditions. The scattered storms will diminish by midday Friday as
the warm front lifts north. Expect an increase in southerly winds
by Friday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Foster

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
433 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

MOZ090-094-095-103-071015-
CHRISTIAN MO-GREENE MO-STONE MO-LAWRENCE MO-
433 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHRISTIAN...SOUTHWESTERN
GREENE...NORTHERN STONE AND EAST CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 515
AM CDT...

AT 433 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BILLINGS...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF REPUBLIC...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
NIXA...                           OZARK...
REPUBLIC...                       MARIONVILLE...
CLEVER...                         CRANE...
BILLINGS...                       HIGHLANDVILLE...
HURLEY...                         SPOKANE...
CHESAPEAKE...                     PONCE DE LEON...
SELMORE...                        BOAZ...
CHESTNUTRIDGE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3682 9346 3709 9378 3717 9358 3702 9319
      3681 9321 3681 9324 3682 9324 3681 9331
TIME...MOT...LOC 0933Z 310DEG 23KT 3703 9356

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
504 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

MOZ097-106-071045-
OREGON MO-HOWELL MO-
504 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HOWELL AND WESTERN
OREGON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

AT 504 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEST
PLAINS TO OXFORD...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
WEST PLAINS...                    GRAND GULF STATE PARK...
THAYER...                         ALTON...
POMONA...                         SOUTH FORK...
KOSHKONONG...                     BRANDSVILLE...
THOMASVILLE...                    MOODY...
PEACE VALLEY...                   COUCH...
LANTON...                         ROVER...
WHITE CHURCH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3691 9202 3684 9139 3650 9137 3650 9199
TIME...MOT...LOC 1004Z 281DEG 28KT 3682 9195 3623 9191

HATCH

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