Alert archive / Missouri / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

July 15, 2015St. Clair County, Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this special weather statement at Jul 15, 2015, 5:41 PM CDT for St. Clair County, Missouri. It was in force for 19 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 15, 2015, 5:41 PM CDT (22:41 UTC)
Expired: Jul 15, 2015, 6:00 PM CDT
In force: 19 min
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO

County St. Clair County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 15, 2:50 PM CDT, 2 hours 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 2:50 PM CDT, 2 hours 51 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
250 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

Compact area of severe convection continues to drop southeast across
the CWA this afternoon.  Quasi-supercellular characteristics have
been observed, given marginal shear but very impressive CAPE, with
ML values on the order of 4000+ J/KG.  Theta-e differentials of
30-40K have resulted in efficient wind production as cores collapse.

This cell/cluster, along with additional convection developing south
of I-44, will continue to affect the central and southern portions of the
CWA through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening hours.
Loss of sunshine this evening, along with weak height rises aloft,
should spell the end of convection.  Another warm and very humid
night is expected, with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

The southern CONUS ridge will begin to reestablish itself over the
area tomorrow, with the track of weak northern stream shortwaves
moving a little further north of the area.  This should result in a
couple of very warm and dry days for the region, with highs in the
low to mid 90s each day through Sunday, along with little to no
chance for precipitation.  Dewpoints may start to come down just a
few degrees this weekend as mid level moisture decreases a bit, but
overall conditions will remain quite humid.  Right now, it doesn't
appear that widespread 105+ heat indices are in store for the
region, but several days of 100+ seem likely for much of the area.
Heat Advisory criteria does include 3 or more days of 100-104 degree
heat indices, so by Friday, another Advisory may be needed for the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

By Sunday night, a stronger shortwave moving across the Dakotas
into the Great Lakes will attempt to knock the upper ridge back a
bit, and perhaps allow a frontal boundary to move into, if not
through, a portion of the CWA.  This should be our next organized
chance for rain.

The presence of the front and associated precipitation and cloud
cover looks to result in somewhat cooler temperatures during the
early part of next workweek, with readings topping out in the upper
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

No major aviation concerns expected for the next 24 hours, as most
of the convection is expected to remain east of the terminals. A
brief wind shift is possible this afternoon at SGF and JLN as an
outflow boundary moves through; right now, potential for that
boundary setting off a few thunderstorms is low, and while not
zero, is too low for TAF inclusion at this time. Otherwise, winds
will become southwesterly on Thursday, with some gusts expected
from mid morning onward.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Boxell

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 15, 3:52 PM CDT, 1 hour 49 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
352 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-162100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
352 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  EXTREME EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY TO MID
  EVENING HOURS OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WIND GUSTS TO 60
  MPH...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE
  EXPECTED.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 100 AND 105
  DEGREES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN
  KANSAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  A FEW STORMS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI THURSDAY
  AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEXT
  MONDAY.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
  AROUND 103 ON DAILY BASIS

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  ANY SPOTTER REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI ARE
  APPRECIATED.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOXELL

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 15, 2:01 PM CDT, 3 hours 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
201 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0141 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOLIVAR                 37.61N 93.41W
07/15/2015                   POLK               MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            6-8 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMB DOWN IN BOLIVAR. PICTURE
            PASSED ON VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

BOXELL

Local storm report, Jul 15, 2:29 PM CDT, 3 hours 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
229 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND GST     PLEASANT HOPE           37.46N 93.27W
07/15/2015  M60.00 MPH       POLK               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF WINDS UP TO 60 MPH NEAR THE CITY OF PLEASANT
            HOPE.

0220 PM     HAIL             PLEASANT HOPE           37.46N 93.27W
07/15/2015  E1.00 INCH       POLK               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR THE CITY OF PLEASANT
            HOPE.

&&

AFOSCATO

Local storm report, Jul 15, 2:56 PM CDT, 2 hours 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIR GROVE              37.38N 93.15W
07/15/2015                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF A TREE DOWN APPROXIMATELY 10 INCHES IN DIAMETER
            NEAR MAIN AND MAPLE IN THE CITY OF FAIR GROVE.

&&

AFOSCATO

Special weather statement, Jul 15, 3:03 PM CDT, 2 hours 38 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

MOZ104-152030-
TANEY MO-
303 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL TANEY COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
CDT...

AT 301 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRANSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRANSON...EDGEWATER BEACH...FORSYTH...
HOLLISTER...KIRBYVILLE...KISSEE MILLS...OZARK BEACH...POWERSITE AND
ROCKAWAY BEACH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE BULL
SHOALS LAKE AND LAKE TANEYCOMO.

LAT...LON 3670 9327 3671 9307 3650 9283 3649 9317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 319DEG 13KT 3669 9319

RUNNELS

Local storm report, Jul 15, 3:30 PM CDT, 2 hours 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
330 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIR GROVE              37.38N 93.15W
07/15/2015                   GREENE             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT OF A TREE THAT HAS FALLEN ON A HOUSE IN THE CITY
            OF FAIR GROVE.

&&

AFOSCATO

Special weather statement, Jul 15, 5:41 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

MOZ066-067-078-152300-
CEDAR MO-ST. CLAIR MO-VERNON MO-
541 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN VERNON...
NORTHWESTERN CEDAR AND WEST CENTRAL ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

AT 538 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF EL DORADO SPRINGS...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3809 9394 3786 9383 3786 9408 3804 9412
      3804 9409 3804 9407 3806 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 153DEG 15KT 3793 9399

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 15, 12:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Hickory, Polk	25 min
Jul 15, 1:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Polk	43 min
Jul 15, 1:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Polk	42 min
Jul 15, 2:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dallas, Greene, Polk	65 min
Jul 15, 2:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Douglas	55 min
Jul 15, 3:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Webster	56 min
Jul 15, 3:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Taney	27 min
Jul 15, 5:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	St. Clair	32 min
Jul 15, 6:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Benton, St. Clair	43 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Missouri, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.