Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
346 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Late this Afternoon and Tonight)
Issued at 336 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A large area of showers and thunderstorms developed this afternoon
due to a returning warm front and leftover mesoscale convective
vortex (MCV) from convection across Oklahoma on Tuesday. We have
received a few hail reports along with reports of strong
straight-line winds with a few embedded line segments (but no damage
to this point).

This activity will continue to shift northeast late this afternoon
and this evening although it will run into a drier low level air
mass. We may also see some redevelopment behind this main activity
early this evening as a low level jet stream strengthens. Most of
this activity should shift out of the area by late this evening.

We will then be watching additional convective development across
the central Plains later tonight along a cold front. This activity
should begin to shift into extreme southeastern Kansas and
west-central Missouri before sunrise. Lows tonight should be pretty
close to 60 over most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

That front will then push into central Missouri Thursday morning but
will begin to stall. Showers and thunderstorms should overspread
most of the Missouri Ozarks Thursday morning. Activity should then
decrease in coverage for a time from late morning into early
afternoon as upper level short wave ridging occurs.

Convective re-development will then be possible later Thursday
afternoon...especially if we can see any sunshine. It remains a
tough call as to whether or not the cap will break and we will see
surface-based convection. Deep layer shear will easily be sufficient
for storm organization as a mid and upper level speed max spreads
into the region. The orientation of the front when compared to wind
fields may not bode well for supercells...although motions of any
discrete storms would tend to move along that boundary.

We will also have to watch any convection that can manage to
develop across eastern Oklahoma as it may stand a better chance of
being supercellular. This is also highly questionable given that
the cap may hold.

Otherwise, the main play from late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night may actually be multicells and line segments with an
attendant straight-line wind and hail threat. Low level wind shear
vectors may also be supportive of embedded mesovortex potential
for anything bowing to the east or northeast (especially along
that front or any remaining outflow).

Surface low pressure will then track from the southern Plains
through northern Arkansas or far southern Missouri from later
Thursday night into Friday morning. As this happens, that low level
jet will firm up and override that front. We are therefore looking
at widespread convective potential. We will have to watch the
hydro situation closely. We considered a Flood or Flash Flood Watch
with this forecast package. However, we would like to wait and see
where some key features begin to set up (e.g. low level front and
main theta-e advection) before honing in on a possible watch area.
We would also like to see how much rainfall we get tonight.

That front will then plow southeast later on Friday which will bring
an end to the precipitation threat. Brisk north winds will develop
with some areas possibly pushing Wind Advisory criteria. A decent
surface high will build south into the central Plains Friday night
and will open the door for a decent frost setup with lows in the
upper 20s to lower 30s.

Low level winds will then shift back around to southerly by Sunday
as that high scoots southeast of the area. Gulf moisture will begin
to return early next week as the upper level flow goes from flat to
southwesterly. This will likely result in unsettled weather
conditions with several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms
during the early and middle portion of next week. After that cool
start to the weekend, temperatures should warm to above normal
values by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

An upper level disturbance is moving across the Missouri Ozarks
this afternoon and evening. This will bring scattered convection
to all terminals for the rest of the afternoon into the early
evening hours. Have mentioned VCTS and CB for the rest of the
afternoon with tempo groups to cover TSRA. Mostly VFR conditions
expected through this evening with a gradual decrease to MVFR
ceilings late tonight into tomorrow morning. Have included PROB30
for TS late tomorrow morning as the next round of potential
convection moves into the area. South and southeast winds will
remain breezy and gusty up to 25 knot possible.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Griffin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021715-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1211 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
  AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
  AREA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  HALF DOLLARS AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. THE GREATEST
  COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
  AFTERNOON.

  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
  KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
  STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO
  THURSDAY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY
  HAZARDS.

  IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
  FLOODING MAY DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY.

  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 30 MPH ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
  COLD FRONT.

  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR
  30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

  THERE WILL BE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
  INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR
  AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44 ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
234 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     HAIL             WHEATON                 36.76N 94.06W
04/01/2015  E1.00 INCH       BARRY              MO   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT WHEATON HIGH SCHOOL.

&&

RFRYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     HAIL             PURDY                   36.82N 93.92W
04/01/2015  E1.00 INCH       BARRY              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RFRYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             4 WSW STRAFFORD         37.25N 93.18W
04/01/2015  M1.00 INCH       GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

RFRYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             1 N BUTTERFIELD         36.76N 93.91W
04/01/2015  M1.00 INCH       BARRY              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

RFRYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
317 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             WHEATON                 36.76N 94.06W
04/01/2015  E1.50 INCH       BARRY              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

RFRYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
338 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             CRANE                   36.91N 93.57W
04/01/2015  E1.00 INCH       STONE              MO   PUBLIC

&&

RFRYE