Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.

Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.

There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.

Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.

Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.

For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.

By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR conditions should continue through the next 24 hours, as any
thunderstorm chances remain north and east of the terminals. Winds
will remain light out of the south.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
     077-088-093.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-272000-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
251 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 110 DEGREES
  TODAY. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER EXTREME
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
  AND WINDS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. IN
  ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 109 DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST
  TUESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
  FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOXELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
249 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MOZ071-082-083-098-262015-
DENT MO-PHELPS MO-SHANNON MO-TEXAS MO-
249 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DENT...EASTERN TEXAS...SHANNON
AND SOUTHEASTERN PHELPS COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 246 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SLIGO TO 3 MILES
SOUTH OF HOUSTON TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EMINENCE...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AKERS...ALLEY SPRING...ANUTT...ARROLL...
BANGERT...BOSS...BUNKER...DARIEN...ELK CREEK...EMINENCE...EUNICE...
GLADDEN...HARTSHORN...HOUSTON...HOWES MILL...HOWES...JADWIN...LAKE
SPRING...LECOMA...LENOX...LICKING...MIDRIDGE...MONTAUK...PINE
CREST...PRESCOTT...RAYMONDVILLE...ROUND SPRING...SALEM...SLIGO...
SOLO...STONE HILL...SUMMERSVILLE...TURTLE...WEST EMINENCE AND YUKON.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE CURRENT
RIVER STATE PARK...MONTAUK STATE PARK...AND THE OZARK NATIONAL
SCENIC RIVERWAYS.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK
SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS CREEKS...
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS AUTOMOBILES CAN QUICKLY STALL.

LAT...LON 3709 9103 3708 9121 3706 9122 3708 9163
      3718 9201 3751 9201 3780 9177 3785 9152
      3780 9152 3779 9131 3771 9130 3770 9114
      3759 9115 3759 9130 3751 9131 3750 9120
      3726 9115 3725 9111 3720 9111 3716 9102
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 270DEG 8KT 3779 9141 3728 9197
          3709 9127

BOXELL