Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Springfield, MO

July 15, 2015Polk County, Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 15, 2015, 7:01 PM CDT for Polk County, Missouri. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 15, 2015, 7:01 PM CDT (00:01 UTC)
Expired: Jul 15, 2015, 7:45 PM CDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.88 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Polk County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 0.0 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1290 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -92 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1455 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 80 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 82 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.0
Supercell composite: -0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 15, 6:53 PM CDT, 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 6:53 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
653 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2015

...00z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

Compact area of severe convection continues to drop southeast across
the CWA this afternoon.  Quasi-supercellular characteristics have
been observed, given marginal shear but very impressive CAPE, with
ML values on the order of 4000+ J/KG.  Theta-e differentials of
30-40K have resulted in efficient wind production as cores collapse.

This cell/cluster, along with additional convection developing south
of I-44, will continue to affect the central and southern portions of the
CWA through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening hours.
Loss of sunshine this evening, along with weak height rises aloft,
should spell the end of convection.  Another warm and very humid
night is expected, with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

The southern CONUS ridge will begin to reestablish itself over the
area tomorrow, with the track of weak northern stream shortwaves
moving a little further north of the area.  This should result in a
couple of very warm and dry days for the region, with highs in the
low to mid 90s each day through Sunday, along with little to no
chance for precipitation.  Dewpoints may start to come down just a
few degrees this weekend as mid level moisture decreases a bit, but
overall conditions will remain quite humid.  Right now, it doesn't
appear that widespread 105+ heat indices are in store for the
region, but several days of 100+ seem likely for much of the area.
Heat Advisory criteria does include 3 or more days of 100-104 degree
heat indices, so by Friday, another Advisory may be needed for the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

By Sunday night, a stronger shortwave moving across the Dakotas
into the Great Lakes will attempt to knock the upper ridge back a
bit, and perhaps allow a frontal boundary to move into, if not
through, a portion of the CWA.  This should be our next organized
chance for rain.

The presence of the front and associated precipitation and cloud
cover looks to result in somewhat cooler temperatures during the
early part of next workweek, with readings topping out in the upper
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A couple isolated
storms have developed this evening, however, aren't expected to
have a major impact on local terminals as they should begin to
dissipate shortly after sunset. Clouds should decrease overnight
and surface winds are expected to gradually increase through the
day on Thursday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Frye

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 15, 3:52 PM CDT, 3 hours 9 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
352 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-162100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
352 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  EXTREME EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY TO MID
  EVENING HOURS OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. WIND GUSTS TO 60
  MPH...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE
  EXPECTED.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 100 AND 105
  DEGREES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN
  KANSAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  A FEW STORMS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI THURSDAY
  AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEXT
  MONDAY.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
  AROUND 103 ON DAILY BASIS

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  ANY SPOTTER REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI ARE
  APPRECIATED.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOXELL

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 15, 2:29 PM CDT, 4 hours 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
229 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND GST     PLEASANT HOPE           37.46N 93.27W
07/15/2015  M60.00 MPH       POLK               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF WINDS UP TO 60 MPH NEAR THE CITY OF PLEASANT
            HOPE.

0220 PM     HAIL             PLEASANT HOPE           37.46N 93.27W
07/15/2015  E1.00 INCH       POLK               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR THE CITY OF PLEASANT
            HOPE.

&&

AFOSCATO

Local storm report, Jul 15, 2:56 PM CDT, 4 hours 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIR GROVE              37.38N 93.15W
07/15/2015                   GREENE             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF A TREE DOWN APPROXIMATELY 10 INCHES IN DIAMETER
            NEAR MAIN AND MAPLE IN THE CITY OF FAIR GROVE.

&&

AFOSCATO

Special weather statement, Jul 15, 3:03 PM CDT, 3 hours 58 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

MOZ104-152030-
TANEY MO-
303 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL TANEY COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
CDT...

AT 301 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRANSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRANSON...EDGEWATER BEACH...FORSYTH...
HOLLISTER...KIRBYVILLE...KISSEE MILLS...OZARK BEACH...POWERSITE AND
ROCKAWAY BEACH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE BULL
SHOALS LAKE AND LAKE TANEYCOMO.

LAT...LON 3670 9327 3671 9307 3650 9283 3649 9317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 319DEG 13KT 3669 9319

RUNNELS

Local storm report, Jul 15, 3:30 PM CDT, 3 hours 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
330 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAIR GROVE              37.38N 93.15W
07/15/2015                   GREENE             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT OF A TREE THAT HAS FALLEN ON A HOUSE IN THE CITY
            OF FAIR GROVE.

&&

AFOSCATO

Special weather statement, Jul 15, 5:41 PM CDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

MOZ066-067-078-152300-
CEDAR MO-ST. CLAIR MO-VERNON MO-
541 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN VERNON...
NORTHWESTERN CEDAR AND WEST CENTRAL ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

AT 538 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF EL DORADO SPRINGS...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3809 9394 3786 9383 3786 9408 3804 9412
      3804 9409 3804 9407 3806 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 153DEG 15KT 3793 9399

Special weather statement, Jul 15, 5:58 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

MOZ067-152330-
ST. CLAIR MO-
558 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY
UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 556 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY...OR 14 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CLINTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN ST.
CLAIR COUNTY.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE TRUMAN
LAKE.

LAT...LON 3820 9351 3820 9349 3812 9350 3812 9372
      3821 9378
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 279DEG 15KT 3819 9363

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 15, 9:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Lawrence	33 min
Jul 16, 3:07 PM CDT	Heat Advisory	SGF	Barry, Barton, Benton, Camden, Cedar, Christian and 28 more	4 days

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.