Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2015

...Potential for Severe Storms into Early This Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

Cold front will continue to push steadily to the east across the
area this afternoon into this evening. A cap remains in place
ahead of the front, but with lift from the cold front and height
falls with the associated upper level low, the cap is weakening
and storms are beginning to develop along the front.

Storms are currently mutilcelluar in nature and will not pose a
large severe risk over the next hour or so but a few of the
stronger storms could still be cable of hail to the size of
quarters and winds in excess of 50 mph with these storms generally
west of Highway 65.

As the cold front continues to march east and height falls and
large scale lift continue to over spread the area, still expecting
a line or line segments to develop along the front late this
afternoon into early this evening generally east of Highway 65.
The main risk with these storms will be winds to 60 mph. This will
not be a widespread risk and not everyone will see severe weather
this afternoon and evening but the potential will exist across any
locations that are affected by a well developed line segment. The
hail risk will remain more marginal in nature with quarters
possible with a few of the stronger updrafts. The tornado risk
will also be limited in nature, associated with well developed
line segments that can surge to the east across the eastern
Ozarks.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

The upper trough and associated cold front will swing to the east
of the area tonight. Thunderstorms will end across far south
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks by mid evening.

Gusty northwesterly winds will persist behind the front this evening
before subsiding overnight. Surface high pressure will build
across the Ozarks Friday providing a tranquil spring weather day.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

Surface high pressure will slide to the east into the Ohio River
Valley Saturday as the upper flow goes zonal within a split flow
regime.  This will lead to an extended period of unsettled weather.

An initial disturbance will approach Saturday night while isentropic
upglide develops. This will lead to the development of elevated
convection across the Plains that will spread eastward into Missouri
later Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Looks to be lull in precipitation chances Sunday afternoon before
rainfall potential increases again Sunday night as a northern
stream shortwave tracks across the northern Plains and an
associated front drops southward into the region.

This front will stall just to south Monday before lifting north as a
warm front Tuesday or Wednesday in advance of a southern stream
shortwave trough.

Meanwhile a deeper long wave trough will evolve over the Plains mid
to late week.  A deep southerly fetch in advance of this system will
maintain the chance for additional rainfall into at least Thursday.

Medium range models suggest this trough could close off over the
central U.S. resulting in cooler and potentially showery weather
heading into next weekend.

Overall it looks like several days of unsettled spring weather.
However the potential for severe weather appears to be low at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)

Pilots can expect windy conditions and a wind shift this afternoon
as a cold front pushes across the region. Thunderstorms will
develop along the front that could impact the Springfield and
Joplin terminals. Areas of MVFR ceilings could develop where
storms develop as well as a time behind the front.

Southwesterly surface winds will gusts to around 35 kts ahead of
the front before shifting to northwest. Winds will decrease this
evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CDT this afternoon FOR MOZ055>058-
     067>071-077>082-088>096-101>105.

KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
524 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

MOZ070-081-092300-
LACLEDE MO-PULASKI MO-
524 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LACLEDE AND SOUTHERN
PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 522 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT LEONARD WOOD...OR 13
MILES SOUTH OF WAYNESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE DEVIL'S ELBOW AND FORT LEONARD WOOD.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3760 9221 3761 9224 3759 9225 3756 9231
      3769 9241 3791 9203 3767 9203
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 234DEG 55KT 3767 9225

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
539 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

MOZ071-082-092-092330-
PHELPS MO-TEXAS MO-WRIGHT MO-
539 PM CDT THU APR 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WRIGHT...
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN PHELPS COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM
CDT...

AT 538 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MANES...OR 19 MILES NORTH OF MOUNTAIN
GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PLATO BY 550 PM CDT.
  ROBY AND SUCCESS BY 555 PM CDT.
  HAZELTON BY 605 PM CDT.
  BEULAH AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LICKING BY 615 PM CDT.
  7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EDGAR SPRINGS BY 620 PM CDT.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN WRIGHT...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
PHELPS COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3732 9236 3748 9240 3748 9225 3755 9225
      3761 9211 3760 9204 3765 9203 3775 9181
      3747 9181
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 243DEG 38KT 3742 9230

SCHAUMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
548 PM CDT THU APR 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             FORT LEONARD WOOD       37.71N 92.16W
04/09/2015  E0.75 INCH       PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

HATCH

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