River Flood Warning 41, NWS Springfield, MO

990 
WGUS83 KSGF 180256
FLSSGF
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
956 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

 ...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Gasconade River at Hazelgreen affecting Laclede County
  
 ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...
 
  Big Piney  below Fort Leonard Wood East Gate affecting Pulaski 
  County 
  Gasconade River at Jerome affecting Phelps County 
  Sac River near Caplinger Mills affecting Cedar County 
   
.Heavy rainfall over the next 24 hours will cause river levels to 
rise above flood stage. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for later statements.

Additional river information can be found on our Advanced Hydrologic 
Prediction Service page at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/ 
index.php?wfo=sgf 

&&

MOC039-181756-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0040.150618T0253Z-150621T1706Z/
/CMZM7.2.ER.150618T0208Z.150620T0000Z.150620T1706Z.NO/
956 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...For the Sac River near Caplinger Mills...
* At  9:45 PM Wednesday The stage was 16.2 feet. 
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 21.2 feet by 
  Friday evening.  The river will fall below flood stage Saturday 
  early afternoon.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Flood waters affect low lying areas near the
  river including farmland along Highway N and between Highway W and 
  Caplinger Mills. Cedar Creek...a tributary of the Sac River 
  backwaters and floods portions of Highway 39 and south of Cedar 
  Springs.

&&

               FLOOD  OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM

LOCATION       STAGE STAGE  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat

Sac River Basin
  Caplinger Mills  16  16.2 Wed 10 PM  19.8  17.7  11.5

&&

LAT...LON 3783 9384 3783 9381 3770 9372 3769 9377

$$

MOC169-181756-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0039.150619T1354Z-150621T1136Z/
/BIGM7.1.ER.150619T1354Z.150620T0600Z.150621T0536Z.NO/
956 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...For the Big Piney  below Fort Leonard Wood East Gate...
* At  9:00 PM Wednesday The stage was 2.7 feet. 
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by Friday morning and continue to
  rise to near 13.9 feet by early Saturday morning.  The river will 
  fall below flood stage by early Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins at the gage site. 
  Water at the lower TA 250 Training Ground is two feet deep.

&&

               FLOOD  OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM

LOCATION       STAGE STAGE  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat

Big Piney River
  Fort Leonard Wo   8   2.7 Wed 09 PM   6.7  13.2   6.8

&&

LAT...LON 3784 9218 3787 9206 3763 9203 3764 9211

$$

MOC161-181756-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0042.150620T1320Z-150622T1300Z/
/JRMM7.1.ER.150620T1320Z.150621T0000Z.150621T1300Z.UU/
956 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...For the Gasconade River at Jerome...
* At  8:45 PM Wednesday The stage was 4.0 feet. 
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by Saturday morning and continue 
  to rise to near 16.2 feet by Saturday evening.  The river will fall
  below flood stage by Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Minor flooding begins near the gage site. 
  Flood waters reach the lower edge of the concrete building where 
  the gage equipment is located. 

&&

               FLOOD  OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM

LOCATION       STAGE STAGE  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat

Gasconade River Basin
  Jerome           15   4.0 Wed 09 PM   6.1  14.8  15.1

&&

LAT...LON 3800 9199 3800 9195 3790 9196 3792 9202

$$

MOC105-180326-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-150621T1324Z/
/HZLM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
956 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

The Flood Warning has been cancelled for the Gasconade River at 
Hazelgreen.
* At 9:15 PM Wednesday The stage was 3.7 feet. 
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 15.0 feet 
  early Saturday morning.

&&

               FLOOD  OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM

LOCATION       STAGE STAGE  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat

Gasconade River Basin
  Hazelgreen       21   3.7 Wed 09 PM   9.3  14.8   9.9

&&

LAT...LON 3780 9249 3780 9241 3771 9241 3761 9235
      3761 9246                       

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
636 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

Heaviest precipitation has shifted into the Ohio valley early this
morning after pushing through portions of the Missouri Ozarks
yesterday afternoon and evening. Training of some heavier rain
brought 4 to 6 inches of rainfall in a narrow band, however most
locations which received some heavy rain had 2 inches or less yesterday.

Tropical like air mass remains in place across the forecast area
with precipitable water values remaining from 1.75 in. to 2.00 in.
so anything that develops will have good rainfall efficiency.

Tropical system Bill continues to lift north over east Texas early
this morning and we still have a weak shear axis over the area
which was pushing east of the area tonight.

Forecast will focus on the heavy rain and continuing flood risk
across the area as we see the remnants of tropical storm Bill push
into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible today with the
tropical like air mass remaining in place with increasing daytime
instability. Showers and thunderstorms will be very efficient rain
producers again today. Should see diminishing coverage of storms
during the evening with focus shifting to the southwest CWA by
late evening into the overnight hours as Bill approaches the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

Heavy rain will become more widespread as the tropical system
shifts into the region on Thursday into Friday. Fairly strong low
level jet is expected on the east side of the tropical low which
will aid in transporting the tropical moisture over the area. May
have enough low level shear for a brief weak spinup tornado on
Thursday, but main risk will be with heavy rain and flash
flooding. With grounds already becoming fairly saturated across
portions of the Ozarks yesterday and with today's rainfall, it
will not take much additional rainfall to get more flooding. Other
areas which have not received as much rainfall over the past
couple of days will likely still get several inches of rain over
the course of the next few days. Our flash flood watch was
expanded through Friday and also to include all but Oregon county
within our CWA. We are expecting a fairly widespread 3 to 4 inches
of rainfall from today through Friday and 4 to 6 inches of rain
within the heavier band, which extends from the southwest corner
of MO to around Rolla.

Both the GFS/ECMWF shift the precipitation axis east of the area
by Friday evening.

A weak west to northwest flow will set up over the remainder of
the weekend and may bring additional rainfall to the area late in
the weekend. Upper level ridge will be centered across the
southern Rockies. Models begin slowly shifting the ridge eastward
through the middle of next week, so may see some drier but hotter
temperatures back in the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)

Tropical Storm Bill and it's remnants will be approaching the
Ozarks late tonight and Thursday. This system will cause
widespread rainfall to occur tonight and into Friday. Four to six
inches of rain is expected prior to this feature exiting east for
the weekend.

Specific to today, an airmass loaded in moisture combined with a
frontal system laid out across the region, will force additional
moderate to heavy rain. Locations north of the Interstate 44
corridor will likely experience the most rain today, however, all
locations will be vulnerable.

Pilots can expect light surface winds from the south with
considerable cloud cover throughout the day.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>105.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
343 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-180845-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
343 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
  THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THESE STORMS
  WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCES WITH A TROPICAL LIKE
  ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVY RAIN MAY PRODUCE SOME
  LOCALIZED FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING SHOULD IT TRAIN ACROSS THE
  SAME LOCATIONS...OR LOCATIONS WHICH RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF
  RAIN YESTERDAY.

  REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BEGIN TO EDGE INTO
  SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND
  MAY BEGIN TO CAUSE SOME FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING THERE LATE TONIGHT.

  A FEW STORMS TODAY MAY BECOME STRONG AND MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
  UP TO 50 MPH...HOWEVER THE MAIN RISK TODAY WILL BE WITH HEAVY
  RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING.

  A FEW AREAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY SEE HEAT INDEX
  VALUES LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
  THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THURSDAY
  INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD TWO TO THREE INCHES
  OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF RAIN
  PRODUCING FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS AXIS IS CURRENTLY
  FORECAST TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI TO AROUND
  ROLLA AND SALEM IN MISSOURI. SOME SHIFTING OF THIS HEAVIEST RAIN
  AXIS COULD TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION TODAY.

  THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING AND FLASH
  FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL
  SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TROPICAL LIKE RAINFALL
  RATES MAY LEAD TO QUICK FLASH FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND
  ALONG QUICK TO RISE STREAMS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE OZARKS. MANY
  LOW WATER CROSSINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FLOODED ON THURSDAY
  INTO FRIDAY.

  HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
  SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG