River Flood Warning 107, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
1142 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

...Update to Aviation for 18Z Tafs...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

It was a rainy night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. A storm system centered over the High Plains was
forcing Gulf moisture and warmth into the region, leading to large
clusters of convection.

Decent rainfall amounts have already fallen over southwest
Missouri where radar estimates and ground measurements were
showing well over an inch in some spots.

This area to the southwest of Springfield will continue to receive
the heaviest rainfall through the morning hours as convection
develops over eastern Oklahoma, and tracks to the north northeast
with time.

Clusters of showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist
through the day and end from west to east later this evening and
overnight.

Storm total rainfall amounts will range from 1.5 to 2.75 inches.
Flooding is likely in southwest Missouri due to wet soil
conditions and the lack of seasonal vegetation.

We also need to discuss the Wind Advisory that was posted for this
morning. A surface low will track across the western edge of the
Ozarks Region, causing wind speeds to potentially exceed 30 mph at
times. Therefore this advisory will remain in effect until noon
today.

The Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

A Pacific air mass will cool temperatures down into the 50s on
Monday with lows in the 30s. This air mass will also be drier,
therefore we aren't expecting much precipitation during the work
week.

Despite the drier air mass, another storm system will approach
from the west on Tuesday. This system will be moisture starved and
only slight chances for rain exist. Most locations are expected to
remain dry.

Tuesday's system will bring a reinforcing shot of Pacific air,
cooling temperatures back into the 40s on an afternoon basis. We
could experience lows in the 20s each night from Wednesday through
Saturday. No precipitation is expected for the entire Wednesday
through Saturday time frame.

Looking into the extended forecast, another warm up is expected,
with another storm system brewing out west. This would be within
the 8 to 10 day forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG Tafs: Periods of light to moderate
rain will continue to spread across the area through this
afternoon into early this evening, as a slow moving storm system
approaches the region. Light rain and or drizzle will then likely
occur this evening and overnight as the system passes over the
area, with the light rain/drizzle ending from west to east early
Monday morning.

MVFR ceilings can be expected through the Taf period with MVFR
visibilities in the heavy showers. IFR ceilings will be possible
this evening right behind a cold frontal passage for a short
period.

Gusty south to southeasterly winds will occur early this
afternoon, becoming more southwesterly tonight into Monday morning
remaining on the gusty side.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Flood Watch until 9 PM CST this evening for MOZ077-088>096-
     101>105.

KS...Flood Watch until 9 PM CST this evening for KSZ101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Wise

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1020 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141630-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1020 AM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
  REGION TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MINOR FLOODING WILL
  BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
  KANSAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM YESTERDAY EVENING
  THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES.

  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
  WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS
  BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON
  AS THE WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
107 PM CST SUN DEC 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1239 PM     FLOOD            4 ESE ARCADIA           37.62N 94.55W
12/13/2015                   BARTON             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY K IS CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS JUST SOUTH OF
            HIGHWAY V IN THE VICINITY OF LITTLE DRYWOOD CREEK.

&&

GAGAN