River Flood Warning 105, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
510 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 0205 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

A cold front has made it almost all the way through the region
except for the southeast corner of the cwfa. Areas of light to
moderate post frontal rainfall will continue tonight into Saturday
with somewhat higher amounts closer to the front over the southern
cwfa. Areal flood warnings cover the expected or ongoing low water
crossing flooding. Will keep the FF Watch going, but wouldn't be
surprised if part of it is cancelled early in a piecemeal fashion
from the northwest tonight and Saturday morning with the focus of
heavier rain gradually shifting south of the area.

Raw/chilly conditions are expected tonight into Saturday.
Temperatures well back behind the front have stabilized with the
sfc freezing line just west and nw of the cwfa. Will continue to
mention the chance of a small ice accumulation on elevated
surfaces over the far nw cwfa based on progged temperatures
dropping just a bit more. Used a mix of 3hr consensus mos and nam
guidance for temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 0205 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

An upper level low over the Great Basin/western CONUS is progged
to finally kick east into the central Plains Mon finally shifting
the last of the precip off to the east Monday night with a
frontal passage. Sfc high pressure will move through cwfa late Wed
and Thu. Despite the passage of an upper level shortwave Thu a dry
air mass will greatly limit any rain chances. South winds will
increase Fri with a modest warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 0507 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

Southwest flow aloft will prevail through the 00z TAF with upper
level energy continuing to push through the area. Being on the
cool side of the front, expecting IFR stratus and periods of light
rain/drizzle to persist through the period. Freezing line should
stay off to the northwest with little movement from current
position through the 24 hour period, so not expecting any freezing
rain at any of the TAF sites.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
200 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-282000-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
200 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED ICE ACCUMULATION RISK.

DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH
LOW WATER CROSSING FLODDING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND A THIN
GLAZE OF ICE ON ELEVATED AND EXPOSED SURFACES TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL TO FREEZING OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHWEST OF A FORT
SCOTT KANSAS TO COLE CAMP MISSOURI LINE. WINTER WEATHER RELATED
TRAVEL IMPACTS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RESIDUAL FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS...CREEKS....AND RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLOOD            3 NW MANSFIELD          37.14N 92.62W
11/27/2015                   WRIGHT             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            A SECTION OF HIGHWAY EE NORTHWEST OF MANSFIELD HAS
            FLOODED AND BECOME IMPASSABLE TO MOTORISTS.

&&

DCRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     FLOOD            2 E AVA                 36.95N 92.62W
11/27/2015                   DOUGLAS            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HUNTER CREEK IS FLOODING A SECTION OF HIGHWAY EE EAST OF
            AVA.

&&

DCRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
341 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     FLOOD            3 W AVA                 36.95N 92.71W
11/27/2015                   DOUGLAS            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            COWSKIN CREEK IS FLOODING A SECTION OF HIGHWAY Y.

&&

DCRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
524 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     FLOOD            6 WSW MARSHFIELD        37.31N 93.01W
11/27/2015                   WEBSTER            MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF DUTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE ESTIMATED THAT
            6 INCHES OF WATER WAS FLOWING OVER GREENWOOD ROAD. THIS
            STREAM IS WITHIN THE HEADWATERS REGION OF THE POMME DE
            TERRE RIVER.

&&

DCRAMER

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