Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Springfield, MO

831 
WWUS83 KSGF 182348
RFWSGF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
548 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015


KSZ073-097-101-MOZ066-077>079-088>090-093>095-101-102-190100-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150119T0000Z/
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-VERNON-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-JASPER-DADE-
GREENE-NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-MCDONALD-BARRY-
548 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER REACHING RED FLAG
CRITERIA AND THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1148 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

Fire Wx: Forecast looks on track. Maintained enhanced wording
concerning fire spread and expanded the special wx statement (sps)
into a few central MO counties where uncontrolled burning is
historically locally more common. A Red Flag Warning was
considered for two tiers of the far western cwfa, but stronger
winds will be relatively brief and somewhat marginal for a
warning. A short fuse issuance is still possible as conditions
warrant. Ongoing message in the hwo and sps look good. Do expect
wildfire activity to increase today where careless debris or ag
burning occurs regardless.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 216 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

The main weather concern for today will be the elevated fire
danger for grasslands today over southeast Kansas and southwestern
Missouri.

Winds will become gusty late morning through the afternoon with
some winds gusting up to 35 mph especially open areas west of
Highway 65. Felt like guidance was a little too low on
temperatures and bumped forecast highs a few degrees. Joplin's
record is 66 for today and may come close to the record. Most of
the area will warm into the lower and middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 216 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

Another mild day is in the forecast for Monday but not as warm as
today. A shortwave will kick through the Midwest on Tuesday and
bring a cold front through the area. Temperatures will be cooler
but still above average on Tuesday followed by some seasonable
weather for the middle of the week. There will be enough lift for
sprinkles or maybe a shower or two on Tuesday but moisture is
very limited.

High pressure will remain in control for the latter part of the
week with a northwest flow in the upper levels. A storm system
will miss the area to the south and move along the Gulf Coast
region leaving the Missouri Ozarks with seasonable temperatures and dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR. Gusty winds in the near term
will occur with a stronger pressure gradient as a weak trough to
the northwest approaches. Winds will die down quickly after 00z with
less mixing and a relaxing/weakening pressure gradient.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DSA
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
343 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-190945-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
343 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
  ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER FOR AREAS ALONG
  AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE A LOCALLY
  SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER DANGER FOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF
  A LINE FROM PITTSBURG KANSAS TO CARTHAGE TO CASSVILLE. THIS AREA
  WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR FASTER THAN NORMAL FIRE GROWTH
  AND SPREAD AMONG GRASSLAND AND LEAF LITTER. TRENDS WILL BE
  MONITORED LATER TODAY FOR POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH 35 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
  AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1028 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055-066>069-077>081-088>091-093>095-101>104-
190000-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-VERNON-ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-
BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-LACLEDE-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-
NEWTON-LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-TANEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT SCOTT...PITTSBURG...
BAXTER SPRINGS...COLUMBUS...WARSAW...COLE CAMP...NEVADA...
APPLETON CITY...OSCEOLA...HERMITAGE...OSAGE BEACH...CAMDENTON...
LAMAR...EL DORADO SPRINGS...STOCKTON...BOLIVAR...BUFFALO...
LEBANON...JOPLIN...CARTHAGE...GREENFIELD...SPRINGFIELD...
MARSHFIELD...ROGERSVILLE...NEOSHO...AURORA...MOUNT VERNON...
NIXA...OZARK...ANDERSON...PINEVILLE...MONETT...CASSVILLE...
KIMBERLING CITY...GALENA...BRANSON...FORSYTH
1028 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...

DRY WEATHER COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES...DRY DORMANT GRASS AND LEAF LITTER...AND
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ELEVATED POTENTIAL
OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INCLUDING THE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 49...AND ALONG HIGHWAY 44 FROM JOPLIN TO SPRINGFIELD
WHERE WINDS WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...EVEN A MODERATE INCREASE IN WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER BECAUSE OF THE LOW HUMIDITY.

ALL WITH OUTSIDE BURNING INTEREST SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR AN
INCREASE IN WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTDOOR FIRE SPREAD AND
GROWTH WILL INCREASE. TAKE MEASURES TO ENSURE ANY CONTROLLED BURNS
DO NOT QUICKLY BECOME OUT OF CONTROL. BY EARLY EVENING...WEAKER
WINDS COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LESSEN
THE THREAT FOR QUICK FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD.

DSA