Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Springfield, MO

245 
WGUS73 KSGF 072150
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
450 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MOC091-153-203-072201-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0057.000000T0000Z-150707T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HOWELL MO-OZARK MO-SHANNON MO-
450 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM CDT FOR HOWELL...
SHANNON AND SOUTHEASTERN OZARK COUNTIES...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3708 9121 3689 9122 3689 9166 3650 9167
      3650 9236 3659 9212 3705 9209 3705 9166
      3742 9164 3741 9117 3726 9115 3725 9111
      3720 9111 3716 9102 3710 9101

$$

CRAMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
642 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2015

...12z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

A rather messy mesoscale setup across the region this morning. A
surface boundary is currently making its way across the Ozark
Plateau, though wind shifts at 925mb and 850mb lag this surface
wind shift substantially. As a result, convection is festering in
multiple bands of narrow convergence across the region. This setup
will continue through much of the day, resulting in on again off
again showers and embedded storms. Clouds and intermittent rain
will result in a tricky temperature forecast with most locations
staying in the 70s. While widespread heavy rainfall is not
expected today, there will be spots of locally heavy rain where
cell training occurs.

The 850mb front looks to set up right along the I-44 corridor
tonight into Wednesday, and a wave moving northeast out of the
southern Plains will ride this boundary. This round of rain will
be of high interest given a very moist airmass in place. With
precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches, large warm cloud
depths (reaching to between 15 to 20 kft) and long/skinny CAPE
profiles on the order of hundreds of J/kg strongly point to
widespread heavy rainfall production.

Two questions remain at this point, how quickly rainfall starts
and the exact location of the heavy rainfall band. As far as onset
is concerned, the global models are more progressive with the
shortwave tonight, with heavy rain entering from the southwest
late this evening. Mesoscale models (e.g. NAM/WRF/ARW) are 6 or so
hours slower. Regardless of solution, all produce rainfall totals
in excess of 2-3". As for the exact location of the heaviest band
of rain, the along/just northwest of the plateau looks to be the
sweet spot right now, though ultimately the corridor of heavy rain
will remain a mesoscale forecast challenge.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

Heavy rain will move from southwest to northeast across a bulk of
the forecast area during the day Wednesday. The going flash flood
watch handles the at risk areas very well and no changes will be
made in space or time. 2-3" with localized amounts to 5" look good
storm total wise through Wednesday evening.

Wednesday night into Thursday night, we will need to track the
location of a resultant warm front that will be lingering nearby.
This will provide focus for additional shower and thunderstorm
chances. Confidence in just where the best chances are is
dependent on how things evolve over the next 36 hours. It is
plausible an extension to the flash flood watch will be needed if
the warm front loiters over the area.

Given rather meager instability progged for the next few days. The
risk for severe is minimal.

From Friday into early next week, upper level ridging will build
over the area, shunting rain chances to our north and northeast
and bringing a return to very warm and humid conditions. Highs
will reach into the upper 80s to low 90s (perhaps a few degrees
warmer). Heat index values around 100 degrees are plausible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

Showers will be possible throughout the period over all
terminals. MVFR and at times IFR conditions are likely through
the period, especially with heavier showers that develop.
Highlighted vicinity thunder this morning, however, it is very
possible that additional thunder may need to be added later. Low
level shear is winding down this AM, but shear is an additional
variable to watch toward the end of the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday evening FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>096-101>105.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Frye

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
517 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-081030-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
517 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  INTERMITTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH THE
  BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.
  THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLOODING WHERE SHOWERS TRAIN...OR
  REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS.

  AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  EARLY THIS EVENING...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF RAINFALL IS
  EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
  REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MODERATE TO
  HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED RESULTING IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF
  FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST
  TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. STORM TOTAL
  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM TODAY
  THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
  FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...RIVERS...AND MANY LOW WATER
  CROSSINGS IS LIKELY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
  ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90 TO
  AROUND 100 DEGREES FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1101 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSW COMPETITION       37.45N 92.45W
07/07/2015                   WRIGHT             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTE Z CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1103 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ESE MORGAN            37.50N 92.63W
07/07/2015                   LACLEDE            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            WATER OVER STATE ROUTE J AT OSAGE FORK GASCONADE RIVER

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1104 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NE TWIN BRIDGES       37.60N 92.54W
07/07/2015                   LACLEDE            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE ROUTE B CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING AT COBB CREEK

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1106 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SHELL KNOB              36.63N 93.63W
07/07/2015  M5.61 INCH       BARRY              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            5.61 INCHES RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT. WATER INTO BASEMENT
            OF HOME

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1107 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CAPE FAIR               36.73N 93.51W
07/07/2015  M5.50 INCH       STONE              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            5.5 INCHES RAIN SINCE 830AM

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1121 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BRANSON                 36.64N 93.22W
07/07/2015                   TANEY              MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MAJOR FLOODING OCCURING IN BRANSON ON PRIMARY AND
            SECONDARY ROADS. WATER RESCUES ALONG ANIMAL SAFARI ROAD
            AND BIRD ROAD. ONE WAS A RESIDENCE AND THE OTHER WAS A
            VEHICLE SWEPT OFF ROAD. ROAD CLOSURES OF CLIFF DRIVE AND
            CANAL.STOCKSTILL PARK EXTENSIVELY DAMAGED.SENIOR CENTER
            PARKING LOT FLOODED.

&&

BURCHFIELD