Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Springfield, MO

114 
WGUS73 KSGF 162338
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
638 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

MOC015-029-085-131-141-170400-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-150617T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON MO-CAMDEN MO-HICKORY MO-MILLER MO-MORGAN MO-
638 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL HICKORY...NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN...NORTHWESTERN MILLER...
SOUTHEASTERN BENTON AND SOUTHERN MORGAN COUNTIES...

AT 635 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED SLOW MOVING 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA HAVE 
CAUSED FLOODING OF COUNTY AND LOCAL ROADS IN AND AROUND THE WARNING 
AREA. SEVERAL ROADS AROUND WARSAW...VERSAILLES AND GRAVOIS MILLS 
WERE WATER COVERED OR IMPASSABLE.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...ELDON...LAURIE AND
VERSAILLES. CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

ROUTE V AT DEER CREEK NEAR HASTAIN...
ROUTE DD AT KNOBBY CREEK 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF EDWARDS...
ROUTE WW AT ARCHER CREEK NORTHEAST OF LAKEVIEW HEIGHTS...
ROUTE O NEAR LAURIE...
ROUTE Z AT BLUE SPRING CREEK SOUTHEAST OF ROCKY MOUNT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3844 9262 3843 9240 3834 9240 3797 9334
      3828 9333 3854 9276

$$

HATCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
423 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2015

...Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Risk Increasing...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

Showers and thunderstorms were increasing in coverage this
afternoon with the help of a destabilizing airmass, and upper
level shear axis and weak frontal boundary extending from southeastern
Kansas into central Missouri. Precipitable water values near 2
inches will promote very efficient rainfall rates. Expect the
coverage of convection to increase through the remainder of the
afternoon with the potential for very heavy rainfall and localized
flooding.

There will be lull in the activity later in the evening with the
loss of daytime heating. However a resurgence in development is
expected overnight as the low level strengthens and interacts with
boundary stretching across the region. The potential for excessive
rainfall and flooding could increase late tonight.

The boundary will remain in place across the Ozarks Wednesday as
the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill move slowly into the Red River
Valley. Expect additional rounds of showers and storms to develop
Wednesday well ahead of this system.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill are progged to move slowly
northeast from the Red River Valley toward the Ozarks Wednesday night
into Thursday night. Models do differ some on the speed and exact
track of this system but have overall depicted a slower
progression. The eventual track of this system has yet to be
determined.

This tropical system will interact with the stalled low level
boundary across the region to further enhance the potential of
excessive rainfall and flooding. This potential could notably
increase by Wednesday night as a strengthening low level jet
interacts with the boundary. Precipitable water values are progged
to rise around 2.25 inches and 850 MB dewpoints in the mid teens
will support very efficient if torrential rainfall production. The
potential for training convection will further enhance the flood
risk.

At this time it appears the greatest risk for heaviest rainfall
will be Wednesday night through Thursday night. Storm rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across a large swath of
southern Missouri and far southeastern Kansas with locally higher
amounts up to 7 inches. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for
much of the area and has been extended into the day Friday.

While the details of this event are yet to be determined emergency
management along with those with interest along rivers and flood
prone areas should closely monitor the forecast and warnings.

In addition to the flooding risk the increasing low level shear
Wednesday night through Thursday night may support the risk for
locally damaging winds and even an isolated tornado. However this
risk is highly conditional and will be further assessed with time.

Following the passage of this system late this week we will
continue to see an active pattern as we remain on the northern
periphery of the subtropical ridge with additional rain chances
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

Scattered showers developed across NE Okla and NW Ark this
morning. This activity is pushing through the area from southwest
to northeast along a frontal boundary. Cloudy skies are expected
to persist.

The challenge this period isn't necessarily the precip/convection
(scattered to numerous like the last couple of days)...it would be
the ceiling forecasts. Over the last 24 hours, CIGs have been pretty
erratic bouncing back and forth between VFR and MVFR. VIS was a
problem for BBG this AM as well.

VFR/MVFR CIGs are expected throughout the period. Expect lower
CIGs/VIS during heavier precip. There was just enough signal at
minor VIS issues early AM WED to go ahead and highlight this
forecast.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ057-058-068>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>105.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Frye

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
118 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-171830-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
118 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
  WILL IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL
  WHICH TRAINS ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS COULD PRODUCE SOME
  FLOODING. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
  STRIKES...AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
  WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REMNANTS OF
  TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
  AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...SLOWLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
  MISSOURI OZARKS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY
  LEAD TO FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
  AMOUNTS BY FRIDAY COULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN
  ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

  THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE
  WEEKEND.

  HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
  SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER