Small Craft Advisory 42, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PDT FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH A WEAK SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE
AROUND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...HIGH CLOUDS PROVED MORE PERSISTENT OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGHS WHICH
WILL LIKELY END IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

RADAR DOES NOT SHOW MUCH BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT
LOOKING SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT WITH
RAIN BEGINNING ON THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING INLAND BY
12Z. POPS ARE HIGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND COOLING OVER NORTHERN AREAS. A SECOND
IMPULSE ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER
50S ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON SUNDAY.

FOR THE 24-HOUR PERIOD FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY TO FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME 2.5
INCH BULLS EYES. THE LOWLANDS WILL GENERALLY GET LESS THAN 1 INCH
EXCEPT THE COAST AND SOUTHWEST WILL GET SOMEWHAT MORE.

MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
CASCADES AND EXTREME SOUTH PART. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A
BIT TO NEAR 60. BURKE

.LONG TERM...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE AROUND TUESDAY AND THERE ARE
CHANCE POPS FOR THAT. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE GFS AFTER
THAT GIVING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THE EURO DOES
BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM AROUND FRIDAY. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY WITH THURSDAY DRY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...QPF OVER THE SKOKOMISH BASIN IS ROUGHLY HALF WHAT IS
NORMALLY REQUIRED TO BRING THE RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE. RECENT DRY
WEATHER MAKES FLOODING EVEN LESS LIKELY. FLOODING IS UNLIKELY ON
AREA RIVERS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WILL LOWER TONIGHT...WITH THE AIR MASS REMAINING MOIST
THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS BELOW 12000 FT THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

KSEA...SOUTH WIND 4-8 KT RISING TO 8-16 KT LATE TONIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN LATE TONIGHT...WITH CEILINGS 1000-2000 FT AND VISIBILITY 4-6SM
R-F AT TIMES BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING.   MCDONNAL

&&

.MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND ITS COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. GALE FORCE SOUTHERLIES ARE LIKELY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHERLIES OVER MOST OF THE INLAND WATERS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. MARGINAL BRIEF
GALES ARE A POSSIBILITY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE SUNDAY. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY...AND A WEAK FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
       MORNING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ENTRANCES STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...
       ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS...PUGET SOUND AND
       HOOD CANAL.

&&

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML