River Flood Warning 5, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST MON JAN 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AS A
STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR DRY WEATHER...PATCHY FOG...
AND SOME SUNSHINE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY...WITH SOME GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM VANCOUVER ISLAND ACROSS THE NORTH
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND THEN ACROSS THE CASCADES NEAR
STEVENS PASS. RAIN CONTINUES OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON...WITH SOME
REALLY IMPRESSIVE TOTALS FOR THE STORM SO FAR. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA...AND THE WINNER SEEMS TO BE
BLACK KNOB RAWS ON THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS
WITH 9.57 INCHES AS OF 2 AM. THE SNOW LEVEL RANGES FROM AROUND 5000
FT OVER THE NORTH CASCADES -- WHICH IS STILL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
-- TO AROUND 9000 FT ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM WERE
MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...ALTHOUGH BELLINGHAM IS ALSO STILL
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 41.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...MAKING ITS
WAY INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
COAST...OLYMPICS...EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS...AND THE CASCADES.
RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TONIGHT
WILL BE MUCH LESS SIGNIFICANT...AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES FURTHER
NORTH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND AN OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TOWARD
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN ALL WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO LOCALLY 3
INCHES OVER THE CASCADES AND 0.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE OLYMPICS.
PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE SPECIFIC ON FLOOD
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD A BIT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...ASIDE FROM LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH CASCADES TUESDAY MORNING. NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY
FOG IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN USUAL SPOTS OF THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND
REGION AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. BUT THERE WILL BE WEAK OFFSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND WE CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS.   MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY...AND A WEAK SPLITTING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM OFFSHORE. THERE HAS BEEN A STRONG TREND IN
THE MODELS TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...AND THE EXTENDED
FORECAST IS BEING ADJUSTED TO POSTPONE THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN UNTIL
FRIDAY. EVEN THEN WE WILL ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THERE IS
PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AS SOME MODELS SHOW A
SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING TO FALL OVER
THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS...THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CASCADES AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
IN THE LOWLANDS. 12 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6
INCH RANGE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS WITH AN 8.5
INCH MAXIMUM AT THE BLACK KNOB SITE. ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 1.5 INCHES TO 3 INCHES WITH A NEARLY 4.5
INCH MAXIMUM AT SPADA LAKE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE LOWLANDS HAVE
BEEN HEAVIEST ALONG THE COAST WITH KUIL REPORTING 3.97 INCHES IN THE
LAST 12 HOURS AND HOQUIAM 4.35 INCHES. OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
THERE WERE MULTIPLE STATIONS THAT REPORTED 2 TO 3 INCHES.

RAINFALL RATES WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING AND DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE MORNING. UP TO ANOTHER 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE RAIN
THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN WILL PUSH MORE RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS
MORNING. CURRENTLY THERE ARE FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PUYALLUP...TOLT...SKOKOMISH AND BOGACHIEL RIVERS. WARNINGS FOR THE
NEWAUKUM...SNOQUALMIE AND STILLAGUAMISH RIVERS WILL GO OUT WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. EVEN WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF...MULTIPLE RIVERS
IN ADDITION TO THE ONES CURRENTLY WITH WARNINGS WILL BE UNDER THE
THREAT OF FLOODING LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY FOR SLOWER RESPONDING
RIVERS LIKE THE CHEHALIS.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR GRAYS HARBOR AND
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF JEFFERSON COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. RECORD RAINS IN THESE LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY CAUSED SOME
RESIDENTIAL FLOODING IN HOQUIAM AND SOME LOCALIZED LANDSLIDES.
ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST TODAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE RIVER FLOODING THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WESTERN
WASHINGTON LOWLANDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE LANDSLIDE THREAT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
COVERING THIS THREAT. FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...THE AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND STABLE WITH STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER WEST CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE.

THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO GIVE HEAVY
RAIN WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS TO THE AREA. VISIBILITIES
ARE IN THE IFR CATEGORY IN HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INTERACTING WITH
THE TERRAIN TO INDUCE STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH SURFACE PRES GRADIENTS
AT THE SURFACE WITH AREAS OF WIND 25 TO 35 KT OVER THE CENTRAL PUGET
SOUND AREA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS
ALOFT DECREASE. ALBRECHT

KSEA...CIGS GENERALLY 1-2K FT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. VISIBILITY
AT TIMES 3-5SM WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON BUT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOIST
AIR MASS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT CEILINGS WILL FALL TO
OVC007-009 TONIGHT AS PRES GRADIENTS WEAKEN. SOUTH WINDS 15G25 KT
WILL GRADUALLY EASE TO 8-12 KT AFTER 16Z. ALBRECHT

FORECAST WIND FOR KSEA AT 5000 FT...12Z W  55 KT
                                    18Z W  35 KT

FORECAST WIND FOR KSEA AT 2000 FT...12Z SW 45 KT
                                    18Z SW 40 KT

&&

.MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY EASE AS A
1008 MB LOW IN THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE SOUND MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT THEN WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...GIVING
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS UNTIL ABOUT 6 AM THIS MORNING. WINDS JUST
OFF THE COAST HAVE BEEN PRODUCING 16 FT SEAS AT 10 SECONDS AT BUOY
46211 JUST OFF GRAYS HARBOR BAR. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING. ROUGH CONDITIONS ON THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR ARE
NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BRIEF SURGE OF
WESTERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING OVER THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THOSE WATERS UNTIL 6 AM. STRONG
FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE OLYMPICS IS FORCING A MESOLOW OVER
THE KITSAP PENINSULA. THIS MESOLOW IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PUGET SOUND EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO RELAX LATER THIS MORNING AS PRES GRADIENTS RELAX.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE INLAND WATERS TONIGHT.
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE IN THE PUGET
SOUND ZONE UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA TOWARD TUE MORNING.

PRES GRADIENTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TUE WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE INLAND
WATERS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES DURING THE DAY TUE
AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...GIVING LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW. ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
      FORECAST AREA.
     AVALANCHE WARNING FOR THE CASCADES.
PZ...GALE WARNING SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
      UNTIL 6 AM PST.
     GALE WARNING PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS
      MORNING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NORTHERN INLAND WATERS UNTIL 6 AM PST
      THIS MORNING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INNER COASTAL WATERS AND NORTHERN
      OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE
      SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS 6 AM THIS MORNING
      THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR THROUGH 9 PM
      THIS EVENING.

&&

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
141 AM PST MON JAN 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     FLOOD            1 W ABERDEEN            46.98N 123.86W
01/05/2015                   GRAYS HARBOR       WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOCAL FLOODING OF STREETS AND GARAGES IN HOQUIAM.

1245 AM     FLOOD            HOQUIAM                 46.98N 123.89W
01/05/2015                   GRAYS HARBOR       WA   PUBLIC

            LOCAL FLOODING OF GARAGES AND STREETS IN HOQUIAM.

&&

GBP