High Surf Advisory 6, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 PM PST SAT DEC 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
WIND IS LIKELY ON THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR WITH HEAVY
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUNDAY WILL BE SHOWERY AND BREEZY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK SHOULD HAVE MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A SERIES OF UPDATES THIS EVENING DUE TO 00Z MODEL
DATA. CURRENT SOLUTIONS POINT TO PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAINING PRETTY
TIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOT
INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DECREASING WINDS UNTIL MID TO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FOOTPRINT OF AREAS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
THESE WINDS HAS GROWN AS WELL...WITH THESE WINDS MAKING THEIR WAY
POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF PUGET SOUND.
WHILE THE LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO FILL IN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVER
LAND...POTENTIALLY OFFSETTING GRADIENT SOLUTIONS...HAVE OPTED TO
EXTEND INHERITED HIGH WIND WARNINGS THROUGH NOON SUNDAY AND HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OTHER LOWLAND LOCATIONS EXCLUDING THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND THE LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY.

SETTING SIGHTS BACK ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
ON THE INCREASE...HELPING THE DECISION PROCESS ON THE ABOVE
MENTIONED PRODUCT UPDATES. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ECHOES OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...AND WHILE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE
THAN EARLIER...GENERALLY A WET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BOTH SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE BOTH TAPER OFF...WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. MONDAY MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR
TWO IN THE MORNING BUT LOOKS TO BE OTHERWISE DRY...AS DOES THE START
OF TUESDAY. A MINOR IMPULSE MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST RECENT PROG DOES
NOT LOOK TERRIBLY CONVINCING. INHERITED LOW END CHANCE POPS COVER
THE SCENARIO PRETTY WELL.

SWITCHING GEARS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...STILL GETTING SOME OBS OF
SNOW FALLING...SO INHERITED WINTER STORM PRODUCTS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH NO NEED FOR UPDATES OR TWEAKS.

PREVIOUS SHIFT BRIEFED ON 12Z GFS MODEL SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY
BUCKING EARLIER SOLUTIONS AND GOING MOSTLY DRY FOR WESTERN
WASHINGTON...PUSHING PROGGED MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH. CURRENT 00Z RUN
REVERTS BACK TO EARLIER TREND WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. WILL PASS ON TO NEXT SHIFT THAT THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
FORECAST PERIOD MOST IN NEED OF UPDATING...DEPENDING GREATLY ON 00Z
EURO SOLUTION OF COURSE.

THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
40S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. SMR

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE
WET WITH PRECIP BECOMING MORE SCATTERED FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EXTENDED. SMR/BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE ONLY RIVER REACHES STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ARE THE
SKOKOMISH AND THE LOWER CHEHALIS. THE SKOKOMISH RIVER BEGAN RISING
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO RAINFALL TODAY. THIS WILL
DELAY ITS FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT MAJOR FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
THE CREST ON THE CHEHALIS WILL REACH GRAYS HARBOR TODAY AND MAY BE A
BIT HIGHER THAN USUAL DUE TO HIGH TIDES. BOTH THE SKOKOMISH AND
LOWER CHEHALIS WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON SUNDAY. NO ADDITIONAL
RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 7. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CASCADES BY
MIDNIGHT. THE DEEP 980-985 MB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK INLAND ACROSS
THE B.C/WA BOARDER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL SUNDAY. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE...BECOMING SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE SUNDAY.

KSEA...WINDS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SLY WINDS 15-30 KT W/ GUSTS 45 KT BECOMING MORE SWLY
TONIGHT POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...THE DEEP 980-985 MB SURFACE LOW MAY TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...POSSIBLY ALONG THE WA/B.C.
BOARDER FILLING TO 990 MB BY SUNDAY MORNING. GALE WARNINGS WERE
EXTENDED FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING. PUGET SOUND
WAS ADDED TO THIS. FROM POINT GRENVILLE NORTHWARD...A STORM WARNING
FOR WINDS TO 50 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL INTERIOR WATERS SUNDAY
MORNING. SEE THE LATEST COAST FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS. WITH
HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED OVER A LARGER AREA...WAVES ON TOP OF HIGH TIDE
AND WITH A TIDAL ANOMALY DUE TO LOWER PRESSURE...ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING ALONG COASTLINES. AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO COASTAL
FLOODING SHOULD MONITOR CURRENT FORECAST INFORMATION. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE NORTH INTERIOR IN PARTICULAR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
COASTAL FLOODING SUNDAY MORNING IF HIGH WINDS DEVELOP LARGE WAVES.

WEST SWELL 23-27 FEET WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE BELOW 20 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE MON AND TUE. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
REACH THE WATERS WED OR THU. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-EVERETT AND
     VICINITY-HOOD CANAL AREA-SAN JUAN COUNTY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-
     SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-TACOMA AREA-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-WESTERN
     WHATCOM COUNTY.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CASCADES OF
     PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING
     COUNTIES-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.

     HIGH WIND WARNING NOON PST SUNDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-SAN
     JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-
     CENTRAL COAST-NORTH COAST.

     WIND ADVISORY FOR EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-HOOD CANAL
     AREA-EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND
     VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT PST
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CENTRAL COAST-NORTH COAST.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CENTRAL COAST-EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTH COAST-
     WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR OLYMPICS.

PZ...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
     STORM WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
     NORTHWARD IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR THROUGH MONDAY FOR GRAYS
     HARBOR BAR.

&&

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