Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
403 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY...BECOMING THE
FOCUS FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...AND WEDGING SOUTH ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS OF 3PM FRONT WAS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VCNTY OF THE
WV/OH BORDER. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IT SHOULD CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6-9PM...REACHING DANVILLE BY MIDNIGHT. LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES
THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
RESULT IN WEAKENING OF THE ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER DARK.

SBCAPE IS CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE MEAN WIND AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS RUNNING
AROUND 40 KTS. COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST FAST MOVING
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUST ASSOCIATED WITH
PASSAGE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

ASIDE FROM SHOWER/STORM THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT...RAIN
THREAT SHOULD WANE QUICKLY WITH FROPA FOR THE VIRGINIAS AND POINTS
NORTH. FROM THE VA/NC BORDER SOUTHWARD...THE PRECIPITATION THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER PER THE FRONT STALLING AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT VCNTY OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY.

CHALLENGE SATURDAY WILL BE WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLETELY
CLEAR THE CWA. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 58 TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST CHC POPS...WITH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA AS DRIER INFILTRATES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER THIS EVENING. LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN ABOUT A 10-15 DEGREE DROP
THEREAFTER. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE A COOL DAY DUE TO LINGERING
CLOUD COVER... HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE 60... DOWN 15-20
DEGREES COMPARED TO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

DIGGING UPPER TROF WILL EVOLVE INTO A CUTOFF LOW VCNTY OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO LINGER UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT... THIS TROUGH ACTING AS A KICKER AND BOOTING THE STATIONARY
LOW AWAY FROM THE COAST. UNTIL THIS TAKES PLACE THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A PERSISTENT AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
AND THREAT FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST. FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IT
APPEARS THE LOW WILL BE JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF
THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES OR AT LEAST BE VIEWABLE ON THE SOUTHEAST HORIZON UNTIL
THE LOW FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE.

WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING TO MOST OF THE CWA...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM WELL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY...POSSIBLY TESTING 70... THEN
INTO THE 70S MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH A
CHANCE TO DIP AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS OF THE VA/WV HIGHLANDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FAST MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH CHC THREAT
FOR SHOWERS. AFTER TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY
AS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS RESULTS IN MAINLY
DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT AND NO INDICATION OF MOISTURE RETURNING FROM
THE GULF OR ATLANTIC. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE ROCKIES EAST ACROSS THE MS/TN
VALLEYS. THIS WILL FAVOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 123 PM EDT FRIDAY...

DECAYING SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO THE EAST FROM LYH AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS FOLLOWING SUIT
RISING FROM TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE SHOULD MAINLY SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARRIVING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
BETTER COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND BY
LATE EVENING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. UNLIKE A TYPICAL NW/SE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE FORMATION OF A
CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION IN
LONGER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY.

WEST-SW WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS UNTIL THE FRONT DRIFTS EAST THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY. LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY BEING SUPPRESSED WITH FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ENTERING
DURING THE EVENING...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
FROM CLOUD TO CLOUD STRIKES. MAIN PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL SET TO
OCCUR AROUND SUNSET AT LWB/BLF...WITH A BRIEF DELAY AS SHOWERS
TREK EAST. HIGH-END MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPSLOPE SITES SUCH AS BLF/LWB MAY
LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT...BUT IMPROVE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING EASTERLY.

LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBYS/WIND DIRECTION. WIND SPEED
WILL VARY DEPENDENT ON SHOWER CLUSTERS THAT PUSH THROUGH.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING VFR
CONDITIONS. ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RCS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
401 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015

VAZ007-010-011-WVZ042>044-507-508-100815-
TAZEWELL-BLAND-GILES-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
WESTERN GREENBRIER-
401 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009-012>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
100815-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-SMYTH-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
401 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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