Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
218 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HEADS EAST TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT PRESSING INTO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS US
MONDAY...WITH A LARGE HIGH SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
HIGH WILL GIVE US LOWER HUMIDITIES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY...

FOR TODAY...WE WILL SEE THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN TENN
THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE SMOKYS/GA
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL AID IN MOISTURE
ADVECTION. CLOUD COVER WILL BE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF CONVECTION
BUT THINK WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO ALLOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE
EXCEEDED...WITH THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS NW INTO SW VA/SRN WV BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH THE 10 AM UPDATE...DECREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MORNING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL BE MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS WE APPROACH MAX AFTERNOON HEATING.
FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR WEATHER FORECAST
MODELS...WHICH DEPICTS BEST LIFT AND CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460...THEN START TO
BLEND IN THE 0Z GFS/NAM AFTER MID AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE PIEDMONT
AREA EAST OF LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE WILL SEE LITTLE TO NONE AS
AXIS OF SFC RIDGE KEEPS THINGS SUPPRESSED.

FOR HIGHS TODAY...MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST BASED ON CLOUD COVER. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPS FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN OF NC TO LOWER 80S OVER MOST OF THE
WESTERN CWA...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FROM ROANOKE EAST.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER WAVE PIVOTS EAST AND WE SHOULD SEE THINGS DRY
OUT. MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE LATE
EVENING. NEXT THREAT WILL BE MAINLY AFTER THIS PERIOD WITH THE COLD
FRONT MONDAY...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WV MOUNTAIN
AROUND DAWN MONDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...BUT
OVERALL SHOULD BE CLEARING FOR MOST WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEST. LOWS WITH HUMIDITY STAYING UP WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN AN AMPLIFIED EASTERN
TROF/WESTERN RIDGE WITH A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE HEAT LOCKED UP OUT WEST AND GIVE US SOME
PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...TO
GET TO THIS PLEASANT WEATHER WE HAVE TO GET ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A COLD
FRONT BEING DRAGGED THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY BY A LARGE SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST A BIT TO EARLY TO ACCESS SIGNIFICANT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY...BUT AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE ABLE TO
HEAT UP CONSIDERABLY RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS...EXPECT THE FRONT
WILL ENTER FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEN JUMP TO THE LEE TROF EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. WILL INDICATE THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH
HIGHEST POPS EAST AND SOMEWHAT LOWER POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS LOW AS SUPPORTING SYNOPTIC DYNAMICS ARE LARGELY ABSENT
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE JUICY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT TO THE WEST READINGS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE
EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80.
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOW HUMIDITY. EXPECT LOW/MID 80S EAST AND GENERALLY MIDDLE 70S
WEST. THE COOLNESS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REALLY BE FELT IN LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS NEAR 60 EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST AND SOME 40S
IN THE VALLEYS MAKING FOR DEPARTURES OF 5F TO 10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE REGION RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
OHIO-TENN VALLEY WEDNESDAY...THEN PIVOT OVER THE APPALACHIANS ON
THURSDAY. IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AND MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN COOLER THAN NORMAL BY 10F OR SO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S WITH SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...

RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH
CAROLINA INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
SO FAR ONLY PASSING NEAR KBLF. RAPID UPDATE MODELS INDICATE THAT A
FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WILL INTENSIFY INTO THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME
TO TIME THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AS COVERAGE OF RAINFALL SPREADS
NORTH AND EAST...POTENTIALLY CLIPPING KLWB...KBCB AND PERHAPS
KROA DURING THE EVENING. MAIN CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL REDUCE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO LESS
THAN 1SM FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME.

CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING LATE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG...MAINLY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP FOG LOCALIZED.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS ONLY MODEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
ALTHOUGH ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF TIME. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT ANY THAT FORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...NF/WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-240730-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
329 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
213 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

VAZ007-009>013-WVZ042-231900-
TAZEWELL-WYTHE-SMYTH-BLAND-PULASKI-GILES-MERCER-
213 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
PULASKI...GILES...SOUTHEASTERN TAZEWELL...NORTHERN
SMYTH...NORTHWESTERN WYTHE...BLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MERCER
COUNTIES...

AT 211 PM EDT...A SCATTERED LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WAS EXTENDING FROM PEARISBURG TO NEAR ALLISON GAP...AND MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH. MANY OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLAND...
MARION...
BLUEFIELD...
PEARISBURG...
MECHANICSBURG...
AND SALTVILLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3739 8094 3735 8044 3732 8044 3726 8054
      3725 8061 3722 8061 3707 8085 3679 8170
      3693 8183
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 254DEG 16KT 3730 8073 3691 8173

DS

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