Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
258 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR
MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK ITS WAY INTO AT LEAST WESTERN
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS
WILL ENTER...STALL OVER THE REGION...AND BE THE FOCUS FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE THE WESTERN...SOUTHWESTERN...AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHWEST IS STILL ANTICIPATED AS
WE CONTINUE TO GAIN A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST COVERAGE IS ALONG AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OF GALAX VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...LASTING THE LONGEST WHERE COVERAGE IS NOW THE GREATEST.

OVERNIGHT...A VEIL OF CIRRUS CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO COVER THE SKY TO
VARIOUS DEGREES OF THICKNESS. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO MITIGATE SOME OF
THE FOG FORMATION PROCESS. HOWEVER...THERE BOTH MOUNTAIN AND RIVER
VALLEY FOG IS AGAIN TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

FOR SUNDAY...A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION...AND MOISTURE AND INCREASED
STABILITY WORKS ITS WAY INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. ANTICIPATE
FOG DISSIPATION IN THE EARLY MORNING...CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BY
LATE MORNING...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE GREATEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LESSER
COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80
TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEAK FLOW RESIDES THIS PERIOD...WITH 5H PATTERN EXHIBITING
VARIABILITY/WEAK WAVES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS. THESE
WAVES WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. MODELS ARE SPREAD
APART FOR THE PIECES OF ENERGY BUT OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
LEAST...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE
EAST...WORKING OFF ANY OUTFLOW AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT.

TEMPS WILL STAY IN THE NORM OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL RANGE WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW 60S WEST TO MID TO UPPER 60S EAST.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS...WITH
MID 80S TO AROUND 90 EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARD JAMES BAY MID TO LATE WEEK. MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL RESIDE
UNDER RIDGE WITH A FEW WEAKER IMPULSES PUSHING ACROSS. MOST
FRONTAL ACTIVITY WILL STAY ENHANCE FURTHER NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION.

BASICALLY WE WILL SEE DAILY THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT SATURDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CREST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS. BRIEF...TEMPORARY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST UNDER
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY CORES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION...WITH BRIEF GUSTY
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE HEAVIER CORES.

OVERNIGHT...IFR/MVFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY REGION THAT RECEIVES PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY 13Z/9AM SUNDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...16-18Z/NOON-2PM...IN THE WEST ON
SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THROUGH MONDAY...DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
ORGANIZED AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGHS SHIFTS TO OUR
EAST...AND A BETTER FEED OF MOISTURE AN INSTABILITY WORKS ITS WAY
INTO AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY OF THE STRONGER CORES WHILE
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION REMAINS VFR. NIGHTTIME MOUNTAIN
AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AS SOIL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE INCREASED DAYTIME PRECIPITATION.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM...AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THANKS TO A SERIES OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL ENTER...AND THEN STALL OVER THE
REGION. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL ACT AS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
ELECTRONIC TECHNICIANS WILL BE SWITCHING OUT THE ANTENNA FOR THE
LYNCHBURG NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER. THE LYNCHBURG WEATHER
RADIO BROADCAST...STATION WXL92...ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.550
MHZ...WILL BE OFF THE AIR...MOST OF THE TIME SUNDAY AUGUST 16TH
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. ADDITIONAL MAINTENANCE MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY
AUGUST 17TH AS WELL.

IF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED...THIS MAINTENANCE WILL BE
POSTPONED OR CANCELLED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS
EQUIPMENT...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
257 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>017-032-WVZ042-161900-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-
WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-PATRICK-MERCER-
257 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...AND MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...RESULTING IN MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...RESULTING IN
MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ018>020-022>024-033>035-043>047-058-059-WVZ043-044-
507-508-161900-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
257 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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