Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
953 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESSION EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO...AND THEN
STALLS OVERHEAD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT FRIDAY...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...BASICALLY FOR
AREAS OF CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK.

KEEPING AN EYE ON A SHORT WAVE OVER IOWA THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF IN THE EAST
RECEDES TO THE THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALBEIT MAKING A GRADUAL
SLIDE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
DEW POINTS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY THAN ON THURSDAY AS LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREA OF COVERAGE WILL INCLUDE THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE FROM FLOYD COUNTY INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

WENT WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. USED A BLEND
OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY. WE WILL ALSO
SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. COVERAGE
SATURDAY WILL BE ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SUNDAY WITH ALL STORMS
CONFIDED TO THE MOUNTAINS. WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT...DIURNAL
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOW AND IF EFFICIENT...PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WITH LINGERING INSTABILITIES...STORMS MAY HANG ON
LONGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL RUN CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH LOWER 80S WEST
AND UPPER 80S EAST. SUNDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT THURSDAY...

DO NOT SEE ANY BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO THIS PERIOD. MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN MID WEEK...SO KEPT BLEND OF
OFFICIAL AND ENSEMBLES. WILL STAY WITH MAINLY A DIURNAL TREND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE WEST AS HUMIDITY TRENDS UPWARD OVER
TIME. MAIN FOCUS OF ANYTHING ORGANIZED WILL BE OVER THE COAST OF NC
TO FL AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST.

HIGHS AND LOW STILL AT/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER TO MID 80S
WEST...EXCEPT UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN...TO UPPER 80S/90 EAST. LOWS
AT NIGHT TO ELEVATE A LITTLE BUT TYPICAL OF AUGUST WITH LOW TO MID
60S WEST...TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM EDT FRIDAY...

OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN 5-7KFT
CEILINGS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WAS QUICKLY ENDING. HIGHS CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
AT THE LOCAL AIRPORTS THROUGH 18Z/2PM.

NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY OR TONIGHT. A
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED
OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THE AREAL COVERAGE...MORE THAN
ON THURSDAY...BUT STILL NOT A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO ADD TO
THE TAFS...SO WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS RETURN AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...AND MOISTURE FLOW INCREASES ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE REGION. FOCUS FOR ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION...MOST OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE BRIEF...LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
UNDER ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT FORM WITH HEAVY CORES.
ALSO...LATE NIGHT MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS MORE AREAS START GETTING RAIN DURING THE
DAYTIME.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...

KFCX 88D RADAR WILL STILL DOWN FOR MAINTENANCE TODAY. THE RADAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE BACK UP AROUND 7 PM.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/MBS
EQUIPMENT...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
425 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-150830-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
425 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
121 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

VAZ015-141745-
GRAYSON-
121 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

...A STRONG SLOW MOVING SHOWER WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN GRAYSON
COUNTY...

AT 120 PM EDT...A STRONG SHOWER WAS OVER VOLNEY. THE SHOWER WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY AND PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. IT MAY DEVELOP
INTO A THUNDERSTORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUTH OF WILSON...
VOLNEY...
GRAYSON HIGHLANDS STATE PARK...
AND RUGBY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3668 8152 3670 8126 3657 8129 3657 8139
      3658 8144 3658 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1720Z 284DEG 1KT 3661 8141

DS