Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
353 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE FRONT THURSDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION FRIDAY... WITH A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS
GREATEST. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL SO EXPECT SOME STRONGER
STORMS TO PULSE UP AND PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. THE
FRONT WILL NOT PASS CLEANLY THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL SERVE AS A
TRIGGER FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS ARE LIMITED TOMORROW SO EXPECTING
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOW SEVERE THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO READINGS WE HAVE SEEN OF
LATE WITH MINS TONIGHT AROUND 70 EAST OF THE RIDGE TO LOW/MID 60S
WEST...AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOWER 90S EAST TO MIDDLE 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

BY THURSDAY MORNING...SHORT WAVE WILL BE COMING OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE TO 850 MB BACK TO THE SOUTH AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT.
THIS FLOW WOULD BE ADVECTING IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5
TO 2.0 INCH RANGE. WILL BE INCREASING PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
AND FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. THIS
POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FARTHER NORTH BUT SLOWER NAM
AND THE FASTER...YET FATHER SOUTH GFS AND IS ALSO CLOSER TO ECMWF
SOLUTION.

DIFFERENCES IN TIMING ALSO SHOW UP IN GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL STAY CLOSER TO COOLER VALUES IN
THE WEST AND NORTH FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...

OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE EAST. NEXT WEEK THE TROF WILL AMPLIFY
AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AROUND DAY 7...TUESDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ON
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALSO ANTICIPATING
SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT TUESDAY...

WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DO NOT EXPECT
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE SO WILL USE VCTS ALL SITES AND AMEND AS NEEDED
FOR SPECIFIC CELLS APPROACHING TAF SITES. OUTSIDE OF THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE VFR.

POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IS ONCE AGAIN COMPLICATED
BY HOW MUCH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVER FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION AND MODEL INDICATIONS FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT UPSLOPE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEHIND THE
FRONT. CURRENTLY BELIEVE THE SCALES TIP AWAY FROM FOG SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT KBLF/KLWB/KBCB AND WILL INTRODUCE SOME BKN
MVFR CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK. IF A TAF SITE GETS APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL FROM CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OR ANTICIPATED
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS LESS THAN EXPECTED FOG WILL NEED TO BE ADDED
TO TAF SITES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...POSSIBLY IFR/LIFR AT KLWB.

THE FRONT WILL NOT PASS CLEANLY THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL LINGER
TOMORROW AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD SO WILL KEEP THE BACK END
OF THIS FORECAST DRY AND INDICATE VFR AT ALL SITES AFTER DAYBREAK.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WESTERLY TO NWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SOME OCCASIONAL LOW END GUSTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...MBS/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
402 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>034-043-WVZ042>044-507-
508-052015-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-HENRY-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
402 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ035-044>047-058-059-052015-
AMHERST-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-
CHARLOTTE-
402 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
415 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VAZ045-042045-
CAMPBELL-
415 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CAMPBELL COUNTY...

AT 415 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ALTAVISTA...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALTAVISTA...
HURT...
HODGES...
AND GLADYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3707 7915 3707 7918 3706 7919 3706 7920
      3710 7920 3712 7921 3711 7922 3710 7922
      3710 7924 3713 7925 3711 7928 3710 7930
      3714 7934 3712 7935 3714 7939 3721 7934
      3720 7905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 284DEG 18KT 3717 7934

RS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
416 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E KING                36.28N 80.34W
08/04/2015                   STOKES             NC   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ALONG OLD
            HIGHWAY 52 BETWEEN CHESTNUT GROVE RD AND DALTON RD.

&&

JMORROW

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
456 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VAZ007-009-012-042145-
TAZEWELL-WYTHE-SMYTH-
456 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
TAZEWELL...SMYTH...AND SOUTHWESTERN WYTHE COUNTIES...

AT 454 PM EDT...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE INDICATED
FROM JUST SOUTH OF CLAYPOOL HILL...TO MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AIRPORT...TO
SPEEDWELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARION...
MOUNT ROGERS NATIONAL RECREATION AREA...
SPEEDWELL...
SUGAR GROVE...
AND BROADFORD.

LAT...LON 3695 8181 3696 8178 3698 8179 3702 8176
      3681 8102 3679 8108 3677 8109 3677 8116
      3676 8119 3676 8127 3674 8139 3672 8145
      3692 8183 3693 8183
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 300DEG 15KT 3696 8174

RAB