Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
823 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AND REACH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
STALL AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK...AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH CONVECTION  INTO
TONIGHT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND RELATIVELY LOW FFG IN THE WEST. RAINFALL RATES...MOVEMENT
AND TRAINING OF STORMS WILL BE KEY ITEMS TO MONITOR. TRAINING OF
ECHOES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER SATURATED GROUND WILL BE OF HIGH
CONCERN. A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COULD ALSO RESULT IN LOCAL WATER PROBLEMS DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF
THE HEAVY RAIN. THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ALSO HIGHLIGHTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SEVERE IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF CWA
WITH WIND AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

UPPER LOW OVER WAS OVER THE WEST VIRGINIA/KENTUCKY BORDER AT
23Z/7PM AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REACH WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND WILL LIFT
NORTH AS WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS OCCURRING ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINS. LEANED POPS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT TOWARDS A BLEND OF HRRR...ARW AND CONTINUITY...THEN
TRIM BACK POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND
FROM THE WEST. ADDED AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.
START WITH THE HIGHEST POPS MONDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AND SHIFT POPS AXIS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. THE DAY TWO CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK KEEPS OUR AREA IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY. ANY
ADDITIONAL FLOOD WATCHES FOR MONDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SUNDAYS
CONVECTION AND LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL VARY FROM
THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...

FORCING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL WANE MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.

DON'T BLINK.  PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CONUS
WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY...THEN STALL EAST-WEST ALONG THE
MASON DIXON FOR MID WEEK.

MODELS BRING SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
MID-WEST ON TUESDAY. LINEAR ORIENTED...POTENTIALLY STRONG
CONVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS
THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT REACH OUR FCST AREA UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING
TUESDAY OR SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT.  IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE CASE
THEN STRENGTH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS ROBUST WITH ONLY
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE STORMS
FALLING APART AS THEY CROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL BLOCK SOUTHERN
PROGRESSION OF FRONT...HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE OF AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS...ESP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK WILL TREND WARMER...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS ANTICIPATED PER INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND A
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD AID IN ADIABATIC WARMING EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.  WITH 85H TEMPS APPROACHING +20 DEG C...SURFACE
READING SHOULD EASILY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY THE L-M
90S PENDING SUNSHINE.   MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO AVERAGE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL...THANKS TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...

TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TENDENCY FAVORING THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT ENVELOPS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY SCATTERED
AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC WHERE MORE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL TAKE
PLACE...OUTFLOW FROM WHICH MAY DRIFT INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM EDT SUNDAY...

NUMEROUS CLUSTERS AND LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION...AROUND AN UPPER LOW THAT WAS
CENTERED NEAR KHTS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AND OCCASIONALLY LIFR VISIBILITIES WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN.

TIMING THE IMPACT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LOCAL
AIRPORTS HAS BEEN CHALLENGING SINCE THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH BREAK
BETWEEN LINES OF STORMS TO TAKE OUT OF THE TAFS. THERE MAY BE
BREAKS BETWEEN THE STORMS OF LESS THAN 30 MINUTES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BUT WITH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE MVFR OR LOWER
THROUGH 06Z/2AM. WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE TAFS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.

MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE WEST TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...FOG ARE EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL. WESTERLY COMPONENT OF WINDS WILL
HELP LIFT CEILINGS AFTER 14Z ON MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AT KBLF AND
KLWB.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PA BY MONDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEM WILL BE A
LONGER PERIOD OF VFR WX ON TUESDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WITH
IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR-
VFR OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ007-009-010-012-
     019-020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ042-043-507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KK/MBS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/KK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1001 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NCZ002-VAZ007-009>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-061100-
ALLEGHANY NC-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
1001 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER TUESDAY IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001-003>006-018>020-VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-061100-
ASHE-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1001 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER TUESDAY IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1102 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      1 SW POCAHONTAS         37.30N 81.36W
07/05/2015                   TAZEWELL           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE MUD SLIDES BETWEEN POCAHONTAS AND APPS VALLEY
            ROAD

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ESE POCAHONTAS          37.30N 81.34W
07/05/2015                   TAZEWELL           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            LAUREL CREEK FLOODED ABOUT HALF OF DOWNTOWN POCAHONTAS

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW BLUEFIELD         37.23N 81.33W
07/05/2015                   TAZEWELL           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            HIGH WATER HAS RESULTED IN MULTIPLE ROAD CLOSURES ALONG
            ROUTE 460 BETWEEN TAZEWELL AND BLUEFIELD.

0900 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N TIPTOP              37.21N 81.43W
07/05/2015                   TAZEWELL           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER AND MUD SLIDES.

&&

AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1110 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE BLUEFIELD         37.25N 81.22W
07/05/2015                   MERCER             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            HIGHWAY 460 WEST CLOSED AT THE SECOND BLUEFIELD EXIT DUE
            TO WATER COVERING THE ROAD.

&&

HYSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1116 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      1 NNE BRAMWELL          37.34N 81.31W
07/05/2015                   MERCER             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            ROCKSLIDE ON ROUTE 52.

&&

HYSELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1127 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VAZ011-013-014-016-017-032-WVZ044-060430-
MONTGOMERY-FLOYD-PATRICK-PULASKI-GILES-CARROLL-MONROE-
1127 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
PATRICK...EASTERN PULASKI...CENTRAL
GILES...FLOYD...MONTGOMERY...EASTERN CARROLL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONROE
COUNTIES...

AT 1125 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN EXTENDED FROM
PEARISBURG TO GRAYSONTOWN TO NEAR FANCY GAP...AND MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

RAINFALL RATES OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR ALONG WITH WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHRISTIANSBURG...
RADFORD...
PEARISBURG...
AND DUBLIN.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3657 8075 3700 8062 3739 8088 3751 8075
      3707 8014 3694 8018 3687 8023 3687 8020
      3655 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 259DEG 12KT 3733 8075 3702 8054 3662 8070

PH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1207 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

NCZ002-003-VAZ007-009>013-015-016-WVZ042-061015-
ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
GRAYSON-CARROLL-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SPARTA...DOBSON...TAZEWELL...MARION...
BLAND...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...PULASKI...
INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...GALAX...
BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP
1207 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CREATE DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS...

AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO A WET GROUND AND LIGHT
WINDS. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED UNDER A QUARTER OF A MILE ALONG
SOME PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 77 NEAR FANCY GAP.

PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION. BE PREPARED FOR RAPID
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY AND ALLOW PLENTY OF SPACE BETWEEN VEHICLES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1221 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

VAZ011-014-017-018-022-WVZ044-060515-
CRAIG-MONTGOMERY-FLOYD-ROANOKE-GILES-MONROE-
1221 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT WESTERN
CRAIG...WESTERN ROANOKE...NORTHEASTERN GILES...NORTH CENTRAL
FLOYD...MONTGOMERY AND MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 1219 AM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WAS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LINDSIDE TO BLACKSBURG TO NEAR PILOT... AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

RAINFALL RATES OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR ALONG WITH WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLACKSBURG...
UNION...
SHAWSVILLE...
AND PILOT.

THIS INCLUDES VIRGINIA TECH.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3768 8066 3759 8024 3711 8014 3687 8047
      3721 8042 3749 8075
TIME...MOT...LOC 0419Z 202DEG 23KT 3750 8066 3727 8039 3700 8041

PH