Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
816 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD
LATE TONIGHT...AND STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION FOR FRIDAY...
MAINTAINING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WEEKEND...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND HELP TREND TEMPERATURES COOLER ACROSS THE AREA...ALL
THE WHILE MAINTAINING THE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS...SOME POTENTIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN....ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...

TRIMMED SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 353 TO INCLUDE AREAS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 29 WHERE CAPE IS STILL 2000+. WE ONLY HAD ONE DISCRETE
CELL THAT TRAVERSED THE CWA FROM SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE TO JUST EAST
OF DANVILLE...BUT THIS STORM HARDLY PUT A DENT IN THE CAPE EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ACTIVITY WHICH IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
SHENANDOAH MAY SPARK SOME NEW INTEREST AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES
SOUTHEAST TOWARD LYNCHBURG AND FARMVILLE BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT.
OUTFLOW FROM STORM ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF DANVILLE MAY ALSO
BACKBUILD TOWARD YANCEYVILLE AND DANVILLE...SO WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A WATCH ON THAT AREA TWO.

NEW WEATHER WATCH...SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 356...HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FAR WESTERN VA...TAZEWELL AND MARION AREAS AND POINTS
WEST...WHERE STORMS FROM KENTUCKY WILL MAKE INROADS DURING THE
LATE EVENING.

IN BETWEEN THESE TWO WEATHER WATCHES...THE AIR IS FAIRLY STABLE
WITH CAPE LESS THAN 1000...RESULTING IN A VOID OF CLOUD AND
PRECIP FROM ROANOKE TO WYTHEVILLE ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR. CANT
RULE OUT SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWERS WITHIN THE VOID...BUT ANY
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN A SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED INTENSITY.

WITH CLOUDS IN THE EAST...AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE WEST...THE DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S WEST TO
THE LOW 70S EAST. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SPOTTY CONVECTION. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE NOTICED THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL BE DEALING
WITH STORMS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED FLOODING BY SATURDAY.

DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS KICKING UP
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH DURING THIS TIME.

AS THE LOW OCCLUDES SATURDAY MORNING OVER WRN PA...AS SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE MID ATLANTIC. THE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH INCREASING PWATS TO 2+ INCHES AT
LEAST OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH 1.5-1.75" IN THE WEST.

ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NEEDED
AS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS NOT EVEN BEEN THAT WIDESPREAD...WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER OUR SW VA/NW NC MTNS. STILL SHOULD SEE HOW THINGS
EVOLVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME EXCESSIVE
RAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

SVR THREAT WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN AMOUNT CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...THOUGH FURTHER EAST...THE BULK SHEAR WILL BE DECENT
ENOUGH THAT WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY...AND IF SUNSHINE
WERE TO COME OUT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...SVR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY. MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME SEEMS TO STAY EAST OF A LYH-DAN
LINE.

THEN SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY SLOT WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS WE HAVE BEEN
TALKING ABOUT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DISSIPATING/ENDING SAT
NIGHT WITH SOME UPSLOPE WORKING INTO SE WV...WITH MORE A LATE
FALL/WINTER PATTER SCENARIO. THE LOW DEEPENS ENOUGH  WHERE SUNDAY
WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
PLACES LIKE HOT SPRINGS/POOR MOUNTAIN AND FANCY GAP.

DEWPOINTS WILL FALL STEADILY SUNDAY INTO THE 40S/LOWER 50S...WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NOT QUITE EDGING DOWN YET BASED ON TIMING OF AIRMASS
CHANGE...BUT STILL LOWER OR MID 50S MTNS WILL BE REALIZED WITH LOWER
60S EAST.

SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE MILD AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH
SUNSHINE RETURNING EXCEPT FOR LINGERING STRATOCU OVER THE MTNS OF
WV/ALLEGHANYS OF VA. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG/EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND NEAR 80 SOUTHSIDE VA/NW NC PIEDMONT.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL AROUND 50 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

PATTERN STAYS ACTIVE BUT COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH TROUGH IN THE
EAST...RIDGE IN THE WEST.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK AND FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THEM FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME SHOULD STAY DRY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER VA. THEN...NEXT NRN STREAM FRONT ARRIVES WEST OF THE MTNS
BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM FRONT MOVING NE ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL
START TO SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/FEW STORMS TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME PROXIMITY OF WARM FRONT MAY KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EAST TO UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S WEST.

THEN MIDWEEK...THE FRONT EDGES SOUTHEAST THEN STALLS AS FRONT STARTS
TO BECOME PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. WILL SEE A COUPLE OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH...BUT THE TIMING LEADS ME TO KEEP JUST
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED-THU. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE ONGOING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM CENTRAL VA INTO
CENTRAL NC...MOVING EAST. ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WAS OVER EASTERN KY...THIS ACTIVITY ALSO MOVING EAST AND WILL
IMPACT FAR WESTERN VA AND SOUTHERN WV BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT.
THERE IS A RELATIVE VOID ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM ROANOKE INTO
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH A CORRIDOR OF VFR WHERE SKIES HAVE
BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY OVER FAR WESTERN VA MAY SPILL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE. AS SUCH...HAVE
MAINTAINED VFR AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY.

FOR FRIDAY...WILL SEE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
AS MUCH OF THE REGION SLIPS IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY HEADING
OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT MAIN UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS
COULD ACT TO BRING LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS...BUT PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING AS THE FLOW TURNS
MORE EASTERLY DURING THE DAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A
PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCLUDING WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM EXITS ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON GUSTY NW WINDS ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO MOSTLY
VFR OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FINALLY BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF
WIDESPREAD VFR MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE
WITH MORE SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO IN LYNCHBURG...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY
OF 162.550 MHZ...IS WORKING ON THE SECONDARY TRANSMITTER.
TECHNICIANS CONTINUE TO WORK ON THE ISSUE AND HAVE ADVISED THAT
BOTH TRANSMITTERS WONT BE FULLY OPERATIONAL UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF/PM
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...NF
EQUIPMENT...DS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
737 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

VAZ011-018>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-262345-
GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
737 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. GUSTY...TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND IS
THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ010-012>017-022>024-032>034-043-262345-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-BLAND-WYTHE-
PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-HENRY-
737 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. GUSTY...TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND IS
THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ005-006-VAZ035-044>047-058-059-262345-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-AMHERST-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-
BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
737 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

STORMS THIS EVENING MAY CONTAIN VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ007-009-262345-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-
737 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 356 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

STORMS THIS EVENING MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
714 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

NCZ006-252345-
CASWELL-
714 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CASWELL COUNTY...

AT 711 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER JERICHO...MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

WINDS OF 30 MPH TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PROSPECT HILL...
JERICHO...
BAYNES...
AND HIGHTOWERS.

PERIODS OF FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3625 7944 3625 7947 3626 7948 3634 7917
      3632 7915 3624 7916
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 251DEG 15KT 3624 7935

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
745 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

NCZ006-260015-
CASWELL-
745 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
CASWELL COUNTY...

AT 744 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER BAYNES...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

WINDS OF 30 MPH TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PROSPECT HILL...
AND BAYNES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING. LIGHTNING CAN
STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE
A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3625 7933 3630 7933 3631 7915 3624 7915
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 280DEG 21KT 3625 7925

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
758 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

VAZ047-260045-
BUCKINGHAM-
758 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME NORTHERN BUCKINGHAM
COUNTY...

AT 756 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRACKING ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BUCKINGHAM...FLUVANNA COUNTY BORDER...OR JUST NORTH OF
CENTENARY TO NEAR BREMO BLUFF...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN BUCKINGHAM
COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW CANTON...
AND CENTENARY.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3764 7825 3763 7825 3769 7859 3776 7857
      3776 7850 3779 7850 3780 7849 3776 7847
      3775 7844 3773 7836 3772 7834 3771 7830
      3769 7826 3769 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 279DEG 34KT 3779 7844

RAB

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