Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
710 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT SUNDAY...

CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR WRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AIRMASS
WORKED OVER AND LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH SUNSET WILL KEEP ANY
STORMS UNDER SVR THREATS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

STORMS WORKING TO THE PIEDMONT HOLDING TOGETHER AND INCREASING IN
STRENGTH PER BETTER CAPES. SPC COORDINATION TO EXPAND WATCH EAST
TIL 8 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IN COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...HAVE EXPANDED
THE WATCH TO INCLUDE FLOYD COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO GRAYSON COUNTY
VA...TIL 8 PM.

LATEST LOCAL WRF/HRRR SHOWING THIS LINE HOLDING TOGETHER TOWARD
THE NC BORDER...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS BETTER SVR PARAMETERS OVER FAR
SW VA INTO SE KY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FURTHER EAST FOR SVR AS WELL
AS SBCAPES ARE 2500-3000 J/KG...BUT WESTERLY FLOW MAY ACT TO HOLD
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND 8 PM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 4 PM...

SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE STARTED FORMING JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN PARTS OF WV/KY OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EXPANDING AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON...WITH PROPAGATION INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. BY THIS EVENING...THE
ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE IN
OUR REGION AS FAR EAST AS THE PIEDMONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY STILL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE
LATEST DISCUSSION FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SUGGESTS THIS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WILL BE MOST PRONE TO STORMS
HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS HAVING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

BY MIDNIGHT...MOST OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE ENDED...OR AT LEAST SIGNIFICANTLY DISSIPATED. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT A DISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW MAY CAUSE A
RESURGENCE IN THE ACTIVITY IN THE WEST...AND OUR FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THAT POTENTIAL. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...LOOK FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
AND RIVER VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY REGIONS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION
FROM THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

ON MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER
RIDGE STARTS BUILDING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL HAVE THE IMPACT OF
STARTING TO YIELD EVEN HIGHER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE START OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PEAK WITH THE CROSSING OF
AN 850 MB WARM FRONT...WHICH IN TURN WILL HELP ACT AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN THOSE REALIZED TODAY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW TO NEARLY MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...

ON TUESDAY COLD FRONT WITH GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ENTERS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS SHOWED STRONG Q-V FORCING
ALONG WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...VERY
WARM AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HAVE ONLY LOW PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE PROBABILITY BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER FROM ANY UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING MAY LIMIT HEATING EARLY IN THE DAY AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTING IN AT MID LEVELS WHICH MAY CAP GROWTH OF
STORMS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY. BUFKIT IS FAVORING HE CAP WHICH WOULD
MEAN LESS STORMS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.

GFS POSITION OF THE FRONT IS FAVORED WHICH PLACES THE BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ON TO
CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...

500 MB ZONAL FLOW UNTIL THURSDAY THEN BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN
THE EAST WITH THE ECMWF STILL SHOWING AN MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT THE MOST LIKELY DAYS THAT WILL HAVE
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND MOST OF THE
MOUNTAIN REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. IN THESE
AREA...MOST OF THE COVERAGE WAS SCATTERED...BUT THERE WERE POCKETS
OF BROKEN COVERAGE WITH CIGS EITHER HIGH END MVFR OR LOW END VFR.

AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WE ARE EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF OH/WV...AND THEN PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS ALONG AND NEAR A KBLF-KLWB
LINE WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED BY ANY
ACTIVITY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND STORMS.

ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE BY THE LATE EVENING.
WIND WILL TREND LIGHTER AS A RIDGE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANTICIPATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PRIMARILY THE RIVER AND MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IF A PARTICULAR AREA WAS IMPACTED BY
PRECIPITATION THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND IN PARTICULAR ANY AREAS
THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE THE CAP STRENGTH OVERHEAD ON MONDAY
AND EARLY TUESDAY AND HELP LIMIT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...A LINGERING BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS
NEEDED FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.

COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FEATURE
WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA AND ACT AS A STRONGER FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AS
UPSTREAM CONVECTION RIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

DURING THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE TYPICAL
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT WOULD HAVE RECEIVED PRECIPITATION
THE PREVIOUS DAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...DS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
709 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

VAZ032-033-043>045-058-059-222315-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
709 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 323 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-034-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-
222315-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-
GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
709 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ004>006-VAZ046-047-222315-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
709 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
659 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

NCZ006-VAZ033-043-044-220000-
CASWELL-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-FRANKLIN-
659 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CASWELL...SOUTHERN
PITTSYLVANIA...CITY OF DANVILLE... SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...CENTRAL
HENRY AND CITY OF MARTINSVILLE COUNTIES...

AT 659 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER MOUNTAIN VALLEY...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DANVILLE...
MARTINSVILLE...
CHATHAM...
AXTON...
AND BLAIRS.

THIS INCLUDES DANVILLE AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 3652 7951 3654 7951 3654 7956 3672 8003
      3692 7989 3677 7917 3665 7919 3644 7930
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 284DEG 21KT 3680 7972

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
701 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

NCZ004-VAZ016-032-043-220000-
STOKES-HENRY-PATRICK-CARROLL-
701 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN
STOKES...PATRICK...SOUTHWESTERN HENRY AND SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL
COUNTIES...

AT 700 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER GROUNDHOG MOUNTAIN...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STUART...
SANDY RIDGE...
CANA...
ARARAT...
AND SPENCER.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3651 8044 3655 8044 3656 8060 3658 8068
      3676 8054 3676 8050 3671 8046 3675 8045
      3675 8039 3671 7996 3654 8000 3654 8003
      3639 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 284DEG 21KT 3663 8050

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
706 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

NCZ001-002-018-019-220000-
WILKES-WATAUGA-ASHE-ALLEGHANY-
706 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ASHE...WILKES...WATAUGA AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALLEGHANY COUNTIES...

AT 706 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER REESE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOONE...
NORTH WILKESBORO...
WILKESBORO...
JEFFERSON...
AND WEST JEFFERSON.

THIS INCLUDES APPALACHIAN STATE UNIVERSITY.

LAT...LON 3604 8140 3607 8141 3612 8155 3611 8181
      3616 8183 3619 8188 3623 8191 3626 8189
      3629 8192 3634 8185 3636 8180 3634 8177
      3634 8171 3641 8174 3647 8170 3653 8171
      3635 8096 3604 8110 3603 8127 3600 8132
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 296DEG 37KT 3635 8178

KK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
715 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE SPEEDWELL         36.89N 81.14W
06/21/2015                   WYTHE              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON CINNAMON RUN

&&

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
716 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW MARION             36.80N 81.54W
06/21/2015                   SMYTH              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON SCRATCH GRAVEL RD BLOCKING ONE LANE

&&

FISHER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

NCZ002>004-020-220015-
YADKIN-ALLEGHANY-SURRY-STOKES-
721 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SURRY...CENTRAL YADKIN...STOKES
AND SOUTHEASTERN ALLEGHANY COUNTIES...

AT 721 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER WOODVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT AIRY...
ELKIN...
FAIRVIEW...
FLAT ROCK...
AND YADKINVILLE.

LAT...LON 3629 8087 3633 8087 3636 8090 3640 8097
      3639 8098 3638 8098 3646 8108 3656 8075
      3656 8057 3639 8003 3637 8003 3626 8018
      3626 8045 3622 8043 3614 8044 3611 8051
      3605 8050 3605 8057
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 307DEG 18KT 3648 8053

KK