Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
715 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY INTERACT
WITH MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL TO
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA
EARLY THIS EVENING. BOUNDARIES AND LINGERING INSTABILITIES OVER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE STORMS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE SOME POPS ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO THIS EVENING AS
INITIAL OUTFLOW UNDER A PASSING WAVE TO THE NORTH SLIDES EAST CROSSING
THE BLUE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY
EVENING. THIS ALONG THE RESIDUAL WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA THAT
WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK NE AS A WARM FRONT AS THE WAVE PASSES OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS QUITE WEAK WITH BEST FOCUS
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE SEEING SOMEWHAT HIGHER CAPES
POOL NORTHWARD.

SOME OF THE LATEST SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ORGANIZE THINGS A BIT MORE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS A BIT SO KEEPING HIGH
CHANCE/LOW LIKELYS WEST EARLY ON WITH CHANCES ELSEWHERE FOR MORE
ISOLATED POP UP STORMS BUT QUITE IFFY. OTHER QUESTION WITH POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO SLIDE SE LATER THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES OVER THE NE
SECTIONS. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL ATTEMPTS TO FOLD THIS FEATURE DOWN EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE BUT AGAIN POSSIBLY OVERDONE. THUS KEEPING IN HIGHER
POPS NE FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WHILE DECREASING FROM SW TO NE BY
MIDNIGHT...REACHING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AT BEST ACROSS MOST SECTIONS
LATE. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS DO OCCUR...OTRW
ANOTHER WARM/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY 65-72.

WAVE EXITS BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
ALLOWING MUCH OF THE REGION TO SLIP INTO AN AREA OF WEAK SINKING MOTION
AIDED BY DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND GOOD MIXING UNDER WEAK CAPPING ALOFT.
THIS SHOULD ACT TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION WITH BEST CHANCES PERHAPS
OVER THE FAR NORTH WITH A FAINT WAVE PASSING...AND ALONG THE NW SLOPES
PER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NAM REMAINS THE WETTEST IN HAVING MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WEST WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS LACKING MUCH
MORE THAN ISOLATED MOUNTAIN COVERAGE. THUS WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SLIGHT
MENTION EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THURSDAY WITH CHANCE COVERAGE DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE DAY WEST WHICH MAY STILL BE OVERDONE. OTRW THE MAIN ASPECT
WILL AGAIN BE WITH THE HEAT AS 85H TEMPS RETURN TO AROUND +22-23C WHILE
DECENT DOWNSLOPING KICKS IN UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EAST. THIS COULD
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S SE AND CLOSE TO 90 WEST PENDING
DEGREE OF EARLY CLOUDS AND LATER ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. THIS SHOULD ALSO
BUMP HEAT INDICES BACK CLOSE TO 100 IN THE PIEDMONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE LOW AMPLITUDE QUASI ZONAL FLOW KEEPING THE
JET STREAM TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAVERING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DIURNALLY BIASED
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN BECOMING AN INCREASING THREAT AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TS BILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
DYNAMIC ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TS REMNANTS SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION JUST
OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY ALLOW SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT.

THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ON MONDAY THE TS REMNANTS WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND GETTING
ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
THERE IS NOTHING TO PUSH THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION SO IT WILL
SIMPLY PIVOT/MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO
AMPLIFY AGAIN WITH A RIDGE BECOMING REESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US.
THIS WILL KEEP US LOCKED INTO THE HEAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
NUDGE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK AND LEAVE US VULNERABLE TO UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT SLIDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITHOUT ANYTHING DEFINITIVE TO LATCH ON
TO WILL KEEP POPS LOW AND WAIT FOR THE SITUATION TO DEFINE ITSELF
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 02Z THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WOULD BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BUT ALSO IFR VSBYS IN THE
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. BY 02Z THU...ALL CONVECTION SHOULD FADE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING WITH LINGERING VFR DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

WAVE PASSES ON THURSDAY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION IN BETWEEN LIFT
SOURCES AND UNDER A DECENT WESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION TO THE MAINLY THE FAR WEST AND PERHAPS BLUE RIDGE LATE.
THUS RUNNING WITH OVERALL VFR IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELDS
AFTER ANY EARLY FOG/STRATUS FADES WITH WEST WINDS AT 10-20 KTS.

NEXT IMPULSE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE BILL
REMNANTS WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR IN AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS OF WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH REMNANTS OF
BILL THAT SHOULD GET CAUGHT INTO THE UPPER FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS. WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH CONVECTION
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTRW OVERALL
VFR INTO MONDAY WITH ADDED ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH YET
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT LINGERING OVER THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR EXCEPT THE TYPICAL FOG FORMATION AT LWB/BCB
AND AT TIMES LYH THROUGH THE WEEK EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 320 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 17TH...

STATION RECORD HIGHS/YEAR
ROANOKE 96/1944
LYNCHBURG 96/1944
DANVILLE 99/1981
BLACKSBURG 88/1994
BLUEFIELD 86/2007
LEWISBURG 88/2014

RECORD HIGHS FOR THURSDAY JUNE 18TH...

STATION RECORD HIGHS/YEAR
ROANOKE 97/1925
LYNCHBURG 96/1944
DANVILLE 96/2007
BLACKSBURG 88/2014
BLUEFIELD 90/2007
LEWISBURG 89/2014

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/RCS
CLIMATE...JH/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
308 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-WVZ042>044-507-508-
181915-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-
FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-
BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
308 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED CLUSTERS OR BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL
PASS TO THE NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001>006-018>020-181915-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-
308 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE
NORTH. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR LATER SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF BILL PASS TO THE NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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