Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
301 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS STALL ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO
THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA AND WEDGES SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS INTO THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WE ARE SEEING NARROW RIBBONS OF CONVERGENCE
LEADING TO SW TO NE ORIENTED STORM SEGMENTS. TRAINING ALONG THIS
ACROSS THE MTNS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT THE SW FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD BE MOVING THESE ALONG FASTER. THEREFORE...NO PLANS AS
OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. MODEST INSTABILITY IN
THE PIEDMONT WILL LEAD TO STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ONE INCH HAIL AND MICROBURSTS.

THE CULPRIT FOR THIS IS THE UPPER ENERGY OVER KY/TN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE INTO THE MTNS COMBINED WITH HIGHER PWATS DRAWN
NWD AHEAD OF IT. THIS SCENARIO WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND MAIN SHOWER THREAT WILL LIFT
NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS WE HEAD TOWARD DAWN COULD SEE SOME FOG IF WE
CAN CLEAR OUT ENOUGH THOUGH RAIN INDUCED FOG WILL BE AROUND.

SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR TUESDAY THOUGH THE ENERGY ALOFT TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY EAST TO ALLOW FOR MORE RAIN IN THE PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS... BUT STILL WEST WILL SEE GOOD COVERAGE. MAIN THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE PIEDMONT WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND TO
KEEP INSTABILITY LIMITED THOUGH UPPER DYNAMICS MAY ENHANCE STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

WITH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY...TEMPS WILL BE ELEVATED
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WITH HIGHS CUT BACK
TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 70S WEST...TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...

DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW. THIS LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
NIGHT. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE MADE PROGRESS
EASTWARD TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND OPENED UP INTO MORE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH FEATURE. ALONG THE LOW/TROUGH AXIS AND ON ITS
EASTERN FLANKS...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE PLENTIFUL...WITH
DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE....A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HEAD SOUTH ALONG THE
LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY...GENERATING A LATE SPRINGTIME
WEDGE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS STABLE WITHIN THIS
AREA...LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IN THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FEATURE WILL HAVE MADE THE GREATEST INROADS INTO
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD...AND CONVECTION BECOMES
ENHANCED BY THE STEEP LAPSE RATE OF THE CORRESPONDING COLD POOL
ALOFT...DESPITE RELATIVE STABILITY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION
EASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A REGIME PRONE TO ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS
EAST OF THE COAST. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WE EXPECT ANOTHER INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN
NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE FROM BLF-BCB-LYH NORTH. THIS IS
THANKS TO MOIST LOW LEVELS AND UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE ERODING OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS STILL AROUND. MAIN ISSUE REGARDING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE MORNING WILL BE FOG/LOW CLOUDS. SHOULD SEE MINOR
CLEARING. THINKING THE MTNS WILL SEE IFR OR WORSE TOWARD MORNING
WITH MVFR TO IFR ELSEWHERE. WITH THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THRU
THIS EVENING CIGS/VSBYS WILL MAINLY STAY OVER 3KFT AND ABOVE
6SM...BUT AT TIMES WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECT 1-3KFT CIGS AND
1-3SM VSBYS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

EXPECT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY WITH LOWER
CIGS/VSBY REDUCTIONS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA BY MIDDAY
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL TRENDS IN STALLING THE FRONT NEAR THE REGION DURING MIDWEEK
SUGGESTS LESS DRYING...WITH CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE STORMS INTO THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS LINGERING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF EASTERLY FLOW AND
PERIODS OF SHOWERS.

THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA TO LINGER INTO
SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL MVFR OR WORSE VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY
MORNINGS WITH FOG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
406 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-020815-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
406 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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