Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
421 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL
STALL FRONT HE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE
CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING
AREA. COMBINATION OF ENOUGH INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL SUNSET. COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT BUT MAY NOT COMPLETELY
DRY UP OVERNIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE ENTERING WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND WILL PUSH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI WILL TRACK ALONG THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT EXPECTING BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY

SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLOSES OFF BY
TUESDAY MORNING AND DRIFTS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS HAS BEEN
THE TREND ON THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...MODELS SLOWER EDGING THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTHEAST. NOW LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COUNTY WARNING
AREA WELL WITHIN THE AXIS OF BEST LIFT BY TUESDAY. THE WAVY
SURFACE FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY.

INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN LESS HEATING AND LESS
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND LESS COOLING AT NIGHT. BIGGEST THREAT
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE PERIODS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1155 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EVEN WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE...CONSENSUS IN
HAS THE CLOSED LOW IS A FAVORABLE POSITION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. LESS CERTAIN HOW MUCH OF
A SURFACE REFLECTION THERE WILL BE OF THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW WPC
WAS FORECASTING A WEAK LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS SUGGEST IS
IT POSSIBLE FOR A SHALLOW SURFACE HIGH TO BE WEDGES IN OVER THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COASTAL FRONT HELPING ENHANCE
THE WEDGE. OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA STAYS WET THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SUNDAY...

HAVE FOUR MAIN SECTIONS OF THE TAFS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ALREADY HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION. WILL UPDATE
AS NEEDED WHEN STORMS GET MUCH CLOSER TO APPROACHING A PARTICULAR
AIRPORT...OTHERWISE COVERAGE IS INTO ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
ANYTHING BY VCTS/VCSH IN THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z/8PM. MOST LIKELY
AIRPORTS TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND THE ASSOCIATED MVFR
VISIBILITY WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE KBCB AND KROA.

WITH LOSS OF HEATING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL HAVE BEEN ENOUGH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PATCHY FOG. EXPECT FOG ALONG THE NEW RIVER UPSTREAM OF KBCB AND ON
THE GREENBRIER RIVER IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING. HAVE ADDED LIFR
FOG IN AT KLWB AND MVFR FOG IN FOR KBCB LATE TONIGHT. MODELS
SHOWED KDAN AGAIN WITH AN MVFR CEILINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTH INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY RESULTING IN EVEN HIGHER THREAT OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST...WITH
THE THREAT PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
BOUNDARY SINKS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR MORE
FREQUENT PERIODS OF SUB- VFR INTO TUESDAY WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBY
REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS BY DAY...AND IN PATCHY FOG EARLY
MORNING FOG.

MODELS TRENDS IN STALLING THE FRONT NEAR THE REGION
DURING MIDWEEK SUGGESTS LESS DRYING WITH CONTINUED ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS INTO THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS
LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
EASTERLY FLOW AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/JH

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