Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
434 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT OVER NORTHEAST VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE TO EASE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL THEN
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT TUESDAY...

KEEPING OUR EYES ON A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES STRETCHING FROM
VIRGINIA TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON...ALL TRIGGERING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ALL PROGGED TO RIDE A STATIONARY FRONT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 64. EXPECT LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AS THE LINE CROSSES
MOUNTAINS...BUT BELIEVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST...IF AT ALL. FURTHER WEST...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE COUNTIES AFTER SUNSET...AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR WESTERN RIDGES BEFORE
DAWN THURSDAY. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AS THE SECOND AND THIRD
ROUND OF STORMS APPROACH...SO BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT REMAINS REMOTE.

IN ADDITION TO STORMS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL OVERSPREAD
THE MOST OF THE AREA BY DAWN. BELIEVE THAT RAINFALL ENTERING THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AND HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AS IT BUILDS
IN...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY...KEEPING CLOUDS LOCKED
INTO PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOLDING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. WILL STICK TO THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY...HOLDING HIGHS IN THE
LOW AND MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BELIEVE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON DUE TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD NATURE
OF THE CLOUD COVER...AND THEN SEE A LATE DAY UPWARD SPIKE IN
TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP DURING MAX AFTERNOON
HEATING.

&&

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER THE UPPER MID WEST WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THEN ON FRIDAY TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. ANY REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE WEDGE AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL BE GONE ON THURSDAY
EVENING.

TIMING HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THROUGH A BULK OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ON FRIDAY.
MODELS WERE FORECASTING BEST INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
PIEDMONT ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES OF AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

12Z MODELS WERE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
WILL MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOCATION BETWEEN 18Z/2PM FRIDAY
AND 00Z SATURDAY/8PM FRIDAY WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF RAIN. MORE
CHALLENGING TO TELL HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THERE WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE ALSO REMOVED
THE RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL BE STARTING MILD ON FRIDAY BUT LIMITED
HEATING DURING THE MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. IN THE EAST WHERE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATER...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY COMES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN TROF ON
SATURDAY SO THE 500 MB LONG WAVE TROF DOES NOT MOVE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. THEN PATTERN RETURNS TO RIDGING
IN THE EAST AND TROFING THE WEST FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HEIGHTS
AT 500 MB BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH A DEEP
CLOSED LOW IN THE WEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST AREA WILL
BE IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRACKING OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE A SECONDARY FRONT CROSSES
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WPC CONSIDERED NORTH AMERICAN AND
GFS ENSEMBLES AS REASONABLE FOR THE UPPER AND SURFACE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF FEATURES FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM...MOIST AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. APPEARS THERE WILL BE NO ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISM
TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION BUT ANY DECENT SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO TRIGGER AT LEAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...850 MB VALUES
REBOUND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS HOLD RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
PATCHY CU FIELD WITH BASES IN THE 3KFT TO 5KFT RANGE. TWO FEATURES
OF CONCERN AFFECTING OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ALREADY OBSERVED AT KLYH. THE SECOND FEATURE MAKES FOR A
DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING AS A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA WILL
ENTER KBLF/KLWB AROUND 20Z. RAPID UPDATE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION DURING THE 08/23Z TO 09/02Z TIMEFRAME...
ALTHOUGH AT WHAT INTENSITY REMAINS UNCLEAR. FINALLY...THE REMNANTS
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE AREA SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL ENTERING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL MOISTEN
AND HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AS IT CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR
CEILINGS AND LOW VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT FOR
KROA/KLYH/KDAN AS STRATUS DEVELOPS. WILL ALSO SEE LOW STRATUS
DEVELOP FOR KBCB/KBLF/KLWB AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER TIMING IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AS IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ON THURSDAY...WITH
LOW CEILINGS LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO MID AFTERNOON.
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS LESS INFLUENCE...MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON IN MAXIMUM HEATING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LOOKS IN ORDER INTO FRIDAY
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY. COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING WITH
ANY SHOWERS SUBSIDING...THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE MVFR CEILINGS MAY
LINGER INTO SATURDAY AT KBLF/KLWB. WIDESPREAD VFR THEN RETURNS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...NF/SK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
337 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009-010-012>017-022-091945-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-ROANOKE-
337 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST
ENTERS THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND MAY
PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSES...BUT
RIGHT NOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-091945-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
337 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST
ENTERS THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVENING ON
FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG IT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PIEDMONT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ011-018>020-023-024-WVZ042>044-507-508-091945-
GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
337 PM EDT WED APR 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY
WINDS. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE MIDWEST ENTERS THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND MAY
PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PASSES...BUT
RIGHT NOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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