River Flood Warning 1, NWS Blacksburg, VA

920 
WGUS81 KRNK 102000
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
400 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN WEST 
VIRGINIA..
  GREENBRIER RIVER AT ALDERSON AFFECTING GREENBRIER...MONROE AND 
  SUMMERS COUNTIES 


 ...The combination of rain and snow melt tonight will cause the Greenbrier 
 River to rise above flood stage Wednesday afternoon. THE RIVER WILL FALL
 BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...THE WATER MAY BE MUCH DEEPER 
THAN YOU THINK.

 GRAPHICAL FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT 
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/RNK (LOWER CASE). CLICK ON 'RIVERS & LAKES 
AHPS'.

&&

WVC025-063-089-110400-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0001.150311T1520Z-150312T1624Z/
/ALDW2.1.ER.150311T1520Z.150311T1800Z.150312T0424Z.NO/
400 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREENBRIER RIVER AT ALDERSON.
* FROM Wednesday MORNING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 02PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.1 FEET.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY Wednesday MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.6 FEET BY Wednesday AFTERNOON. THE
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 15.0 FEET...FARM LAND ALONG RIVER BANK NEAR GAGE IS FLOODED.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 15.7 FEET ON JAN 31 2013.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8081 3764 8086 3769 8084 3777 8067
          3781 8043 3776 8035         

$$
RCS

025 
WGUS81 KRNK 102013 CCA
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT...CORRECTED TEXT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
400 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015

...The National Weather Service Blacksburg Va has issued
a Flood Warning for the following rivers in West Virginia...

  Greenbrier River At Alderson affecting Greenbrier...Monroe and 
  Summers Counties.

 ...The combination of rain and snow melt tonight will cause the Greenbrier 
 River to rise above flood stage Wednesday afternoon. THE RIVER WILL FALL
 BELOW FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

Listen to noaa weather radio or your favorite media outlet for later 
statements or warnings.


&&

WVC025-063-089-110400-
/O.COR.KRNK.FL.W.0001.150311T1520Z-150312T1624Z/
/ALDW2.1.ER.150311T1520Z.150311T1800Z.150312T0424Z.NO/
400 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015

The Flood Warning continues for the Greenbrier River At Alderson.
* From Wednesday morning until Thursday afternoon.
* At 02 PM Tuesday the stage was 7.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Wednesday morning and continue
  to rise to near 15.6 feet by Wednesday afternoon. The river will fall
  below flood stage Thursday morning.
* At 15.0 feet...farm land along river bank near the gage is flooded.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 15.7 feet on Jan 31 2013.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8081 3764 8086 3769 8084 3777 8067
          3781 8043 3776 8035         

$$
RCS

000 
WGUS81 KRNK 110354
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1154 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN WEST 
VIRGINIA..

  GREENBRIER RIVER AT ALDERSON AFFECTING GREENBRIER...MONROE AND 
  SUMMERS COUNTIES 

 The combination of rain and snow melt tonight will cause the Greenbrier 
 River to rise above flood stage Wednesday afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Thursday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...THE WATER MAY BE MUCH DEEPER 
THAN YOU THINK.

 GRAPHICAL FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT 
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/RNK (LOWER CASE). CLICK ON 'RIVERS & LAKES 
AHPS'.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY.

&&

WVC025-063-089-111154-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0001.150311T1520Z-150312T1624Z/
/ALDW2.1.ER.150311T1520Z.150311T1800Z.150312T0424Z.NO/
1154 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015

THE FLOOD WARNINIG CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREENBRIER RIVER AT ALDERSON.
* FROM late this morning UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON
* AT 10PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.0 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE this MORNING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.6 FEET BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* AT 15.0 FEET...FARM LAND ALONG RIVER BANK NEAR GAGE IS FLOODED.
* THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 15.7 FEET ON JAN 31 2013.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8081 3764 8086 3769 8084 3777 8067
          3781 8043 3776 8035         

$$

825 
WGUS81 KRNK 110448
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1248 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015

...The Flood Warning Continues For The Following Rivers In West 
Virginia...
 
  Greenbrier River At Alderson Affecting Greenbrier...Monroe And 
  Summers Counties 
  
  The combination of rain and snow melt tonight will cause the Greenbrier 
 River to rise above flood stage Wednesday afternoon. The river will fall
 below flood stage Thursday morning. 




PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do Not Drive Through Flooded Areas...The Water May Be Much Deeper 
Than You Think.

 Graphical Forecast Information Is Available On The Internet At 
Http://Www.Erh.Noaa.Gov/Rnk (Lower Case). Click On 'Rivers & Lakes 
Ahps'.

 
 
The Next Scheduled Statement Will Be Issued By Late Wednesday Morning.

&&

WVC025-063-089-111248-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0001.150311T2154Z-150312T2336Z/
/ALDW2.1.ER.150311T2154Z.150312T0600Z.150312T1136Z.NO/
1248 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015

The Flood Warning Continues For
  The Greenbrier River At Alderson.
* From Late This Afternoon Until Thursday Evening
* At 11pm Tuesday The Stage Was 8.2 Feet.

* Flood Stage Is 14.0 Feet.
* Forecast To Rise Above Flood Stage By Late This Afternoon And 
  Continue To Rise To Near 15.4 Feet After Midnight Wednesday night.
  The  River Will Fall Below Flood Stage By Thursday Morning.
* At 15.0 Feet...Farm Land Along River Bank Near Gage Is Flooded.
* This Crest Compares To A Previous Crest Of 15.7 Feet On Jan 31 2013.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8081 3764 8086 3769 8084 3777 8067
          3781 8043 3776 8035         

$$

700 
WGUS81 KRNK 111134
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
734 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in West 
Virginia...
 
  Greenbrier River At Alderson affecting Greenbrier...Monroe and 
  Summers Counties 

 The forecast crest on the Greenbrier River has been lowered by about one foot and 
 delayed by about 12 hours. Minor flooding is still expected to occur due the 0.50 
 to 0.75 inches of rain that has fallen...ongoing snowmelt and light forecast 
 rainfall up to about 0.10 inches across the basin today. 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes 
ahps'.
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by later this afternoon.

&&

WVC025-063-089-111934-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0001.150311T2342Z-150312T2015Z/
/ALDW2.1.ER.150311T2342Z.150312T0600Z.150312T0815Z.NO/
734 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Greenbrier River At Alderson.
* From this evening until Thursday afternoon
* At 06AM Wednesday the stage was 9.5 feet and rising.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 14.3 feet by after midnight tonight. The river will 
  fall below flood stage by early tomorrow.
* At 14.0 feet...portions of Route 3 south of Alderson are flooded.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 14.6 feet on Mar 5 2008.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8081 3764 8086 3769 8084 3777 8067
          3781 8043 3776 8035         

$$

134 
WGUS81 KRNK 111521
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1121 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in West 
Virginia...
 
  Greenbrier River At Alderson affecting Greenbrier...Monroe and 
  Summers Counties 
  
  The forecast for the Greenbrier River remains basically unchanged
  as of late this morning. The river is still rising rapidly and will 
  continue to do the rest of today and this evening before cresting
  a little over flood stage in the early morning hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes 
ahps'.
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued late this afternoon.

&&

WVC025-063-089-112321-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0001.150312T0500Z-150312T1912Z/
/ALDW2.1.ER.150312T0500Z.150312T0600Z.150312T0712Z.NO/
1121 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Greenbrier River At Alderson.
* From after midnight tomorrow until Thursday afternoon
* At 1045 AM Wednesday the stage was 10.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage just after midnight tonight and 
  continue to rise to near 14.2 feet by very early morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by tomorrow morning.
* At 13.5 feet...Additional low spots dowmstream from Alderson along
  Route 12/3 are flooded.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 14.6 feet on Mar 5 2008.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8081 3764 8086 3769 8084 3777 8067
          3781 8043 3776 8035         

$$

380 
WGUS81 KRNK 111918
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
318 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in West 
Virginia...
 
  Greenbrier River At Alderson affecting Greenbrier...Monroe and 
  Summers Counties 

  The forecast for the Greenbrier River remains basically unchanged
  as of this afternoon. The river is still rising rapidly and will 
  continue to do so this evening before cresting breifly a little 
  over the flood stage of 14 feet in the early morning hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes 
ahps'.
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued this evening.

&&

WVC025-063-089-120318-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0001.150312T0430Z-150312T2100Z/
/ALDW2.1.ER.150312T0430Z.150312T0600Z.150312T0900Z.NO/
318 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Greenbrier River At Alderson.
* From after midnight tonight until Thursday afternoon
* At 02PM Wednesday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight tonight and 
  continue to rise to near 14.3 feet a few hours later. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by early tomorrow.
* At 14.0 feet...portions of Route 3 south of Alderson are flooded.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 14.6 feet on Mar 5 2008.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8081 3764 8086 3769 8084 3777 8067
          3781 8043 3776 8035         

$$

544 
WGUS81 KRNK 120317
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1117 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in West 
Virginia...
 
  Greenbrier River At Alderson affecting Greenbrier...Monroe and 
  Summers Counties 

  The Greenbrier River was still rising from downstream of Renick 
  to Hilldale. The crest will reach Alderson around 3AM. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes 
ahps'.
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by noon on Thursday.

&&

WVC025-063-089-121117-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0001.150312T0500Z-150312T2100Z/
/ALDW2.1.ER.150312T0500Z.150312T0600Z.150312T0900Z.NO/
1117 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Greenbrier River At Alderson.
* Until Thursday afternoon
* At 10PM Wednesday the stage was 13.3 feet.

* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight and 
  continue to rise to near 14.3 feet by 3AM. The river will 
  fall below flood stage by early Thursday.
* At 15.0 feet...Farm land along river bank near gage is flooded.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 14.6 feet on Mar 5 2008.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8081 3764 8086 3769 8084 3777 8067
          3781 8043 3776 8035         

$$

775 
WGUS81 KRNK 121029
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
629 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in West Virginia...
 
  Greenbrier River At Alderson affecting Greenbrier...Monroe and 
  Summers Counties
 

 The Greenbrier River at Alderson crested at 13.8 feet at 3 am today
 and is beginning to fall. The river will continue to fall today,
 with any minor flooding along Route 3 ending early this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes 
ahps'.

 
 
This will be the last scheduled flood statement for this event.

&&

WVC025-063-089-121059-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150312T2100Z/
/ALDW2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
629 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2015

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Greenbrier River At Alderson.
* until this afternoon. 
* The river crested at 13.8 feet at 3 am today and is falling.
* At 05AM Thursday the stage was 13.7 feet.

* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* At 13.5 feet...Additional low spots downstream from Alderson along
  Route 12/3 are flooded.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 13.0 feet on May 17 2014.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8081 3764 8086 3769 8084 3777 8067
          3781 8043 3776 8035         

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1002 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID-SOUTH REGION WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING PERIODS
OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO COLDER TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1002 AM EDT TUESDAY...

KFCX 88D SHOWED RAIN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THE NAM...HRRR AND RNK WRFARW SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN PORTION OF CWA. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD WITH
SATURATED GROUND FROM MELTING SNOW AND RAINFALL. THE WPC DAY 1
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST FOR TODAY AND JUST
CLIPS GREENBRIER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE CHANGES LATER...

AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WET PATTERN GENERALLY ON TRACK AS EXPECTED AS BROAD UPPER LOW
MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST AGAINST BUILDING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL
RESULT IN A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION INTO THE TN VALLEY. A WARM
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLE ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL HAS BEEN
MEAGER SO FAR IN THE ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS RESIDING ACROSS THE
REGION...EXPECT QUITE AN INCREASE IN RAIN...MAINLY WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...BY DAYBREAK...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. BY
EVENING...THE BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL ZONE AND AREA FOR BEST FORCING
WILL BECOME MORE SW-NE ORIENTED AS OPPOSED TO W-E ORIENTED THIS
MORNING. THUS...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT WEST
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AND FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM/NE U.S.
PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/BAROCLINIC ZONE BACK THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTHEAST...ONLY TO SURGE BACK NORTHWARD ONCE THE SHORT
WAVE HAS PASSED.

THROUGH TODAY/TONIGHT...THE MOST MEANINGFUL RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH A NOTABLE GRADIENT IN POPS/QPF FROM
WEST TO EAST...NAMELY 100 PERCENT WEST TO BARELY 20 PERCENT
SOUTHEAST AND QPF FROM WELL OVER AN INCH WEST TO LESS THAN 1/4
INCH SOUTHEAST. CONSISTENT WITH THE MODELS AND WPC...QPF HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY REDUCED FROM EARLIER TOTALS. STILL...WITH VERY SATURATED
GROUND FROM LAST WEEKS RAIN/SNOW MELT EVENT...AND POTENTIALLY 1.5
TO 2.0 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF SNOW REMAINING ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WV...MINOR TO MODERATE
RISES SEEM ALMOST A CERTAINTY ON MANY OF THE
CREEKS...STREAMS...AND EVEN MAIN STEM RIVERS ACROSS THIS REGION
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH AS
PREVIOUSLY ISSUES WITH NO CHANGES TO TIMING OR AERIAL COVERAGE AT
THIS POINT.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY...BUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OFFSET
THAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. RESIDUAL SNOW COVER OF 5
INCHES TO A FOOT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WV COMBINED WITH
RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...WITH 50S WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...AND 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY AFTERNOON. A
SLIGHTLY NON-DIURNAL OR NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER SOMEWHAT
OFFSET BY INCREASING RAINFALL EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT TUESDAY...

WET..WILL NICELY DESCRIBE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THOSE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA...AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

ON WEDNESDAY...WE WILL HAVE A CONTINUATION OF THE VERY GOOD DEEP
MOISTURE FEED INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF
THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE...WILL BE HEALTHY WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TO START THE DAY...THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED
VERY SO SLIGHTLY WEST THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST MOISTURE FEED...BUT THE
AXIS STILL CLIPS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. WE WILL CONTINUE HAVE THE
BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION HERE DURING THE MORNING. BECAUSE
OF THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THIS MOISTURE AXIS...THE FORECAST WILL ALSO
REFLECT A SOMEWHAT LESS PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TO START THE DAY.

AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES...WE WILL BE WATCHING HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALL WHILE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PROGRESSES ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER THROUGH AND THEN EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SERIES OF
EVENTS WILL HELP PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION AS A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

GENEROUS WARMING DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST
REGIONS WEST OF BLUE RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL HINTING AT SOME
WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON CENTERED NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS
AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL TREND...THE NORTHERN EXTENT THE
ISOLATED THUNDER HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER PENNSYLVANIA...AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL NOSE SOUTH
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...SETTING UP A COLD AIR DAMMING
SCENARIO FOR THE REGION TO BE IN PLACE BY THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS REGION WILL
BE WITHIN THE RETURN E-SE FLOW PATTERN AROUND THE NOSE OF THE
RIDGE...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING LIFTED UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE ABOUT TEN DEGREES
COLDER THAN THOSE REALIZED TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE LOWS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 30S UNDER THE CORE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE NEAR I-64...TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

ON THURSDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE LEE RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
CLOUDY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN THE MORNING
LOW TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THOSE AREAS IN THE WEST
OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE. AREAS BETWEEN BLUEFIELD AND
RICHLANDS MAY SEE HIGHS AROUND 60 AS COMPARED TO THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50 UNDER THE WEDGE. DURING THE DAY...RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA WHERE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP RAIN LIKELY FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE
NEIGHBORING GRAYSON HIGHLANDS REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

IN ADDITION TO THE UPSLOPE RAIN ON THURSDAY...A SYNOPTIC LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TX/OK. ANOTHER GENEROUS
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL OUR NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...ADDING TO THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IN THE WEST
BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY.

THE TREND TOWARDS INCREASING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A WARM FRONT ALOFT DEVELOPS AND
MOVES NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION...OVERRUNS THE WEDGE...AND YIELD A
GENEROUS PRECIPITATION REGARDLESS. THE CONCERN THOUGH IS WITHIN THE
COLDER WEDGE...A SMALL AREA OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
BATH COUNTY VA AND GREENBRIER COUNTY WV MAY HAVE A FEW HOURS OF
FREEZING RAIN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ELSEWHERE A COLD RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. ANTICIPATE FRIDAY TO BE
COLDER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S UNDER THE
WEDGE. FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA...OUTSIDE THE WEDGE...MAY
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS UNIFORM. BOTH THE
00Z/8PM ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS HAVE A BIT OF A DRY SLOT
ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE GFS...BRINGS AN
ADDITIONAL SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WAVE
ALONG THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE
FORECAST THAT LOWERS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT KEEPS THEM IN THE CHANCE RANGE...RATHER THAN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A DRY SLOT WOULD WARRANT. LOW TEMPERATURE WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN THOSE OF THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION SLOWLY ERODES THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THE SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE AND FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION...ALBEIT A
WEAKNESS REMAINS BEHIND YET ACROSS TX/MEXICO EVEN INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AOA 0C...DO NOT SEE
ANYTHING SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AT ALL...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO RECENT
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT THIS HOUR...CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. OVERALL...THE WORST CONDITIONS...WITH GREATER TENDENCY FOR
IFR-LIFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MVFR-IFR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY AFT 00Z.

CULPRIT...BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS TX THAT WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY
ENE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BLOCKING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL CREATE A NICE CONVEYOR BELT OF GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MID-SOUTH/SOUTHEAST STATES. THE
FIRST WAVE OF ASSOCIATED RAIN ARRIVING AS EXPECTED AT INITIAL TAF
TIME...SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. MOST...IF NOT ALL
SITES...SHOULD SEE -RA BY 15Z AT THE LATEST. THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/RIDGING TO THE EAST.

CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER FROM VFR TO MVFR THEN TO IFR FAIRLY QUICKLY...
WITH VSBYS ALSO TRENDING TOWARD MVFR/IFR VERY QUICKLY AS THE AIR
MASS SATURATES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KDAN...WHICH MAY STICK WITH
MOSTLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS THE BETTER AREA OF RAIN REMAINS
NORTHWEST OF THAT LOCATION. BY 00Z...THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL
SHIFT TO THE N-NW OF THE REGION...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
MOIST AND SATURATED AT THAT POINT SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND
MVFR-IFR VSBYS...LOWEST WEST. AN IN- SITU WEDGE EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT WILL HELP SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. THEN...AFT
06Z...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PIVOT BACK ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST WITH -RA SPREADING BACK TOWARD THE PIEDMONT BY
DAYBREAK WED. CIGS REMAINING IFR OR WORSE ALL AREAS AT THIS POINT
IN -RA AND/OR -DZ BR/FG.

WINDS CHAOTIC AND LIGHT THIS MORNING....BUT TRENDING TOWARD THE
SE 5-7KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MODELS HINT AT STRONGER WINDS
ARRIVING WESTERN AREAS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...SO INTRODUCED
SOME LOW END GUSTS FOR BLF AS THIS IS A FAIRLY TYPICAL SCENARIO
FOR SUCH. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SSW-SW AFT
00Z...SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 8KTS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY THE BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS
VIRGINIA WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY
AND RAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE
WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PROVIDE A TEMPORARY
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR...POSSIBLY SOME VFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MORE RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT LATE LAST WEEK ALLOWED A NUMBER
OF RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
NEIGHBORING SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST
MINOR FLOODING. WHILE THESE RIVER AND STREAMS HAVE SINCE
FALLEN...THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SUGGESTS THERE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING IN A
COUPLE OF ROUNDS THIS WEEK. THE FIRST LIKELY TO EVOLVE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
THESE SATURATED AREAS OCCURS. JUST ONE INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
COUPLED WITH SNOWMELT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING ALONG SUCH RIVER AND STREAMS AS THE GREENBRIER RIVER.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AGAIN...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE COULD SEE
ANOTHER 0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
12Z/8AM FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z/8AM SATURDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z THU. PREPARATIONS
FOR FLOODING ALONG CREEKS...STREAMS...AND MAIN STEM RIVERS IN THE
FLOOD WATCH AREA SHOULD BE TAKEN NOW. FLOOD AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS FLOOD CERTAINTIES INCREASE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ007-010-011-018>020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...KK/RAB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RAB
HYDROLOGY...MBS/RAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
522 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009-012>017-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
111200-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-SMYTH-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
522 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ007-010-011-018-019-WVZ042>044-111200-
TAZEWELL-BLAND-GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
522 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND COMBINE WITH
RUNOFF FROM MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOW PACK TO BRING A THREAT
OF FLOODING ON AREA STREAMS...CREEKS... AND RIVERS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATER
IN THE WEEK...MAINLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHICH COULD EASILY
RENEW THE FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THIS SAME REGION ONCE AGAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ020-WVZ507-508-111200-
BATH-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
522 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND COMBINE WITH
RUNOFF FROM MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOW PACK TO BRING A THREAT
OF FLOODING ON AREA STREAMS...CREEKS... AND RIVERS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATER
IN THE WEEK...MAINLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHICH COULD EASILY
RENEW THE FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THIS SAME REGION ONCE AGAIN.

IN ADDITION...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND THE GREENBRIER VALLEY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RAB