Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Blacksburg, VA

816 
WGUS71 KRNK 190455
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1155 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

NCC009-189-191030-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-151119T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ASHE NC-WATAUGA NC-
1155 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM EST FOR 
SOUTHERN ASHE AND WATAUGA COUNTIES...

AT 1144 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN PASSING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THREE TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS WATAUGA COUNTY...AND AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 2 AM. FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY AS RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL
ACCUMULATES RAPIDLY IN AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS...PUSHING THEM OUT OF
THEIR BANKS. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL RIVER GAUGES HAVE REPORTED RAPID
RISES...INCLUDING ON THE WATAUGA RIVER AND THE NEW RIVER. RUNOFF
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED RISES ON THE LARGER RIVERS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER RAINFALL ENDS. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BOONE...
WEST JEFFERSON...
BLOWING ROCK...
BEECH MOUNTAIN...
AND DEEP GAP. 

THIS INCLUDES APPALACHIAN STATE UNIVERSITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING...
INCLUDING MUDSLIDES OR ROAD CLOSURES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS
AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3630 8191 3636 8180 3634 8177 3633 8171
      3639 8173 3642 8127 3639 8125 3639 8124
      3636 8126 3636 8136 3629 8137 3629 8141
      3625 8147 3619 8146 3612 8154 3611 8181
      3616 8183 3621 8191 3626 8189 3629 8192

$$

16

007 
WGUS71 KRNK 190617
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
117 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015

NCC009-189-191030-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-151119T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ASHE NC-WATAUGA NC-
117 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM EST FOR 
SOUTHERN ASHE AND WATAUGA COUNTIES...

AT 108 AM EST...RAINFALL WAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. HOWEVER...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WATAUGA AND ASHE COUNTIES...
INCLUDING SUGAR GROVE...FOSCOE...SANDY FLATS...BOONE...AND JEFFERSON.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

THE GROUND IN THIS REGION IS COMPLETELY SATURATED FROM TODAYS RAINFALL 
AND PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RESULT
IN COMPLETE RUNOFF INTO AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. FLOODING
IS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED ON THE NEW RIVER AT SUGAR GROVE. AT 1 AM EST...
THE STAGE WAS 8.93 FEET AND STILL RISING...APPROACHING MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE OF 10.0 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. THE WATAUGA RIVER AT FOSCOE 
WAS ALSO ABOVE ACTION STAGE. FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS AND OTHER AREAS
WITHIN THE WARNED AREA REMAINS LIKELY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BOONE...
WEST JEFFERSON...
BLOWING ROCK...
BEECH MOUNTAIN...
AND DEEP GAP. 

THIS INCLUDES APPALACHIAN STATE UNIVERSITY.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING...
INCLUDING MUDSLIDES OR ROAD CLOSURES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS
AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3630 8191 3636 8180 3634 8177 3633 8171
      3639 8173 3642 8127 3639 8125 3639 8124
      3636 8126 3636 8136 3629 8137 3629 8141
      3625 8147 3619 8146 3612 8154 3611 8181
      3616 8183 3621 8191 3626 8189 3629 8192

$$

RAB

770 
WGUS71 KRNK 190733
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
233 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015

NCC009-189-191030-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-151119T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ASHE NC-WATAUGA NC-
233 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM EST FOR 
SOUTHERN ASHE AND WATAUGA COUNTIES...

AT 227 AM EST...HEAVY RAINFALL HAS MOVED EAST OF THE WARNED AREA AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES FELL
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WATAUGA COUNTY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...WITH
3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS COMMON ACROSS NORTHERN WATAUGA AND SOUTHERN ASHE
COUNTIES.

ALONG THE NEW RIVER AT SUGAR GROVE IN WESTERN WATAUGA COUNTY...MODERATE
FLOODING IS NOW BEING OBSERVED. THE RIVER HAS RISEN TO 10.05 FEET. 
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IS 10 FEET...WHILE FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. THE 
RIVER IS CONTINUING TO RISE AS A RESULT OF EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE WATAUGA
RIVER AT FOSCOE...WHERE THE LATEST STAGE IS 6.7 FEET...AND THE NORTH FORK
OF THE NEW RIVER AT CLIFTON...WHERE THE LATEST STAGE IS 6.14 FEET.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AT THESE LOCATIONS...AS WELL AS OTHER UNMONITORED
LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE WARNED AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...

BOONE...
WEST JEFFERSON...
BLOWING ROCK...
BEECH MOUNTAIN...
AND DEEP GAP. 

THIS INCLUDES APPALACHIAN STATE UNIVERSITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING...
INCLUDING MUDSLIDES OR ROAD CLOSURES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS
AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3630 8191 3636 8180 3634 8177 3633 8171
      3639 8173 3642 8127 3639 8125 3639 8124
      3636 8126 3636 8136 3629 8137 3629 8141
      3625 8147 3619 8146 3612 8154 3611 8181
      3616 8183 3621 8191 3626 8189 3629 8192

$$

RAB

482 
WGUS71 KRNK 190908
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
408 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015

NCC009-189-191030-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-151119T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ASHE NC-WATAUGA NC-
408 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM EST FOR 
SOUTHERN ASHE AND WATAUGA COUNTIES...

AT 400 AM EST...HEAVY RAINFALL HAD MOVED EAST OF THE WARNED AREA.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES FELL
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WATAUGA COUNTY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...WITH
3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS COMMON ACROSS NORTHERN WATAUGA AND SOUTHERN ASHE
COUNTIES.

ALONG THE WATAUGA RIVER AT SUGAR GROVE IN WESTERN WATAUGA COUNTY...
THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND NOW DROPPED BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...BUT
REMAINS ON THE HIGH END OF FLOOD STAGE. THE CURRENT STAGE IS 9.35 FEET.
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IS 10 FEET...WHILE FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET. 
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE RIVER FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS.
MINOR OR NEAR MINOR FLOODING ALSO CONTINUES ALONG THE NORTH FORK OF THE
NEW RIVER AT CLIFTON AND THE NEW RIVER AT SOUTH JEFFERSON.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AT THESE LOCATIONS...AS WELL AS OTHER UNMONITORED
LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE WARNED AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BOONE...
WEST JEFFERSON...
BLOWING ROCK...
BEECH MOUNTAIN...
AND DEEP GAP. 

THIS INCLUDES APPALACHIAN STATE UNIVERSITY.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING...
INCLUDING MUDSLIDES OR ROAD CLOSURES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS
AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3630 8191 3636 8180 3634 8177 3633 8171
      3639 8173 3642 8127 3639 8125 3639 8124
      3636 8126 3636 8136 3629 8137 3629 8141
      3625 8147 3619 8146 3612 8154 3611 8181
      3616 8183 3621 8191 3626 8189 3629 8192

$$

RAB

370 
WGUS71 KRNK 191035
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
535 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015

NCC009-189-191042-
/O.EXP.KRNK.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-151119T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ASHE NC-WATAUGA NC-
535 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR 
SOUTHERN ASHE AND WATAUGA COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. HOWEVER...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 5
INCHES...LOCALLY 6 INCHES...FELL ACROSS PARTS OF WATAUGA AND ASHE
COUNTY DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. FLOODING CONTINUES
ALONG SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA...INCLUDING THE WATAUGA
RIVER. PORTIONS OF THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH A 
FLOOD WARNING AS EXCESSIVE RUNOFF OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH
MAY BE TOO GREAT FOR YOU TO PROCEED SAFELY. THE DANGEROUS OF FLOODS AND
FLASH FLOODS ARE EVEN GREATER AT NIGHT.

LAT...LON 3630 8191 3636 8180 3634 8177 3633 8171
      3639 8173 3642 8127 3639 8125 3639 8124
      3636 8126 3636 8136 3629 8137 3629 8141
      3625 8147 3619 8146 3612 8154 3611 8181
      3616 8183 3621 8191 3626 8189 3629 8192

$$

RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1120 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND
DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY. A
LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1022 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO DROP THE GOING WIND ADVISORY AS WINDS HAVE TURNED
MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE PASSING EMBEDDED LOW TOPPED
SHOWER BAND DURING THE PAST HOUR. ALSO TOYED WITH EXPANDING THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST VA PASSED ON HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE PAST HOUR BUT GIVEN THE BACK EDGE NOT TOO FAR AWAY CAN
HANDLE WITH SHORT FUSE PRODUCTS AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE WITH A FEW HOURS OF HIGH END CAT
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS.

PREVIOUS UPDATE AS OF 745 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

MAIN BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN TO THE WEST HAS SLOWED UP A BIT UPON
APPROACH INTO THE RESIDUAL WEDGE GIVEN LOSS OF DEEPER CONVECTION
THAT WAS GIVING PARTS OF THE AXIS A BIT OF A BOOT EASTWARD.
HOWEVER SEEING SOUTHEAST FLOW AID AREAS OF RAIN NOW MOVING UP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND EXPECT BOTH TO MERGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE HEADING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST HRRR
WHICH MAY BE A BIT SLOW HAS THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF RAIN NEAR THE
BLUE RIDGE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ONLY SHOWING
EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN. MAY SEE A SCENARIO WHERE RAINFALL
OVER THE WEST IS MORE OF THE LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIETY BEFORE
JUMPING TO SOME DEGREE TO HEAVIER SHOWER BANDS OUT EAST LATE WHERE
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL RIDE UP AS THE WEDGE ERODES. WONT INCLUDE
ANY THUNDER MENTION NOW BUT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT WHERE WARMER AIR WILL ALSO RESIDE. SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN
QUITE STRONG GIVEN MIXING DOWN THROUGH DRY AIR OVER THE WEST SO
PLAN TO EXTEND THE GOING WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO COVER
RESIDUAL GUSTS BEFORE THINGS BECOME SATURATED.

OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH WHERE ONGOING FOR NOW WITH
ONLY ADJUSTS TO TIMING OF HIGHER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
AND TO RAISE QPF OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS.
TEMPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EDGE UPWARD AS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
ERODES THE WEDGE SO NOT LOOKING FOR VALUES TO FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT
EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES FAR WEST ONCE THE RAIN TAPERS AND THE
WINDS START TURNING THE WEST AS THE ACTUAL FRONT CROSSES AROUND
DAYBREAK.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION AS OF 233 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES AS MODELS AND MESOANALYSIS WERE SHOWING
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON OVER SE WV/FAR SW VA...NC/TN BORDER. THERE COULD BE SOME
ADVISORY GUSTS PAST THE EXPIRATION AT LOCATIONS LIKE MT
ROGERS/BURKES GARDEN...BUT WINDS SHOULD SHIFT MORE SOUTH AND CORE OF
STRONGEST LLJ WILL BE IN WRN PA.

AS FAR AS HEAVY RAINFALL MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOUT A 5-8 HR
WIND OW MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHEST
QPF IN THE MTNS OF NC/SRN BLUE RIDGE OF VA. PWAT ANOMALIES RUNNING
3+ WITH THIS EVENT...SO HEAVY RAIN IS A NO BRAINER.

FFG VALUES SHOWING ABOUT 2-2.5 INCHES IN THE 3-6 HR PERIOD. FORECAST
RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHER IN THE 00-6Z TIME FRAME IN NC WHERE 1.5-2
INCHES COULD FALL...THEN ANOTHER ONE HALF INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE A GENEROUS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...BUT LIMITED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING...THOUGH LOCALIZED
PONDING OR DITCHES FILLING UP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WESTERN EDGE OF DRYING EXPECTED TO REACH THE I-77 CORRIDOR AROUND
DAWN...THEN SHIFT EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID MORNING AND OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM.

THE WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAKER...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SRN PLAINS...AND SFC LOW IS WELL INTO CENTRAL
CANADA.

COOLER AIR WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT AND 8H WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE WEST...SO AFTER IT CLEARS OUT THURSDAY...TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...WHILE THE
MTNS REACH 60 TO 65...WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER ROANOKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE CONCLUDING EARLIER ON THURSDAY...ANY
RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT AS SOME UPSLOPE MAY BE
POSSIBLE...BUT POPS ARE BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE. MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
WILL BE FELT THROUGH THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WITH A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS BEHIND IT. MODELS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT
AS REFLECTED IN THE POPS. TEMPERATURES IN THIS AIRMASS LOOK TO BE
THE COLDEST OBSERVED SO FAR THIS FALL WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
LOWS IN THE LOW 20S.

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS SHOW A CHANCE FOR LIGHT ISOLATED UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT WITH A DUSTING AT
MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE SHARP UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST WILL LIFT OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PATTERN EVOLVES TO A SLOWLY AMPLIFYING EASTERN RIDGE WITH ANOTHER TROF
DIGGING ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRING A PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION.

WE WILL HAVE COLD TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD WITH READINGS AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
INDEED WITH MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND UPPER TEENS/AROUND 20
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER...AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO OUR
EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1105 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SLIDES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS
AND VSBYS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE
ALONG THE KBLF-KLWB CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.

UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS EXPECT SOME LOW LVL WIND SHEAR AT
MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT SO KEPT IN MENTION EVEN IN THE EAST WHERE
GUIDANCE IS MARGINAL WITH THE LLWS POTENTIAL..

IN ADDITION...KBLF WILL SEE STRONG SE WIND GUSTS TO 30-40 KTS AT
TIMES INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

ON THURSDAY SHOULD SEE THE SHOWERS TAPER OFF WITH CIGS STAYING
LOW FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THEN EXPECT
BASES TO QUICKLY LIFT TO MVFR/VFR AND/OR SCATTER OUT BY LATE
MORNING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM MIDDAY ONWARD INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT LOWER CIGS MAY HANG IN LONGER AT KDAN WITH LOWER
CIGS NOT SCOURING OUT UNTIL MID OR LATE AFTERNOON AT THIS POINT
ESPCLY GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOWER TRENDS IN MODELS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

.EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
BEFORE SETTLING ABOUT OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
TO WIDESPREAD VFR ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT GUSTY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AS WELL AS SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATER SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY OTHERWISE VFR ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE
STRONG BEHIND THIS FRONT SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIDGES AS
MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS IN.

HIGH PRESSURE WORKS OVERHEAD BY MONDAY WITH VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1025 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FORECAST CALLING FOR ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE FAR WEST OVERNIGHT WITH THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HEADING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHORTLY. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE
SRN BLUE RIDGE WHERE PERHAPS ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN...COULD OCCUR WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. 3 AND 6 HR FFG OF
2 TO 2.5 INCHES AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL IN A
4 TO 8 HR TIME RANGE JUSTIFIES KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. AT
THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NC HIGH COUNTRY WILL HAVE THE BEST
THREAT OF SEEING FLOODING OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE HOW LONG THE
HEAVIER RAIN LASTS...BUT EXPECT SOME RISES TO STREAM AND RIVERS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...NO RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO
FLOOD...BUT EXPECT SOME ACTION STAGES ALONG THE DAN RIVER BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ015>017-032.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NCZ001>003-018-
     019.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/NF/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...JH/NF/WP
HYDROLOGY...JH/WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1022 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

VAZ007-009-WVZ042-043-508-200330-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-MERCER-SUMMERS-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
1022 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ALONG THE RIDGES
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
RESULT IN ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001-018-VAZ015-200330-
ASHE-WATAUGA-GRAYSON-
1022 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ002-003-019-VAZ016-017-032-200330-
ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WILKES-CARROLL-FLOYD-PATRICK-
1022 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ010>014-018>020-022>024-034-035-WVZ044-507-200330-
BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
1022 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO GUST TO 4O OR 45 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGETOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ033-043>047-058-059-200330-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-FRANKLIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1022 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINS THAT FALL OVER THE
BLUE RIDGE MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS OR
LOCATIONS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
ISOLATED LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING BANKFULL OR MINOR FLOOD
STAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
850 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 E TIPTOP              37.19N 81.39W
11/18/2015                   TAZEWELL           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON TRADEWINDS DRIVE

&&

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
851 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 NNW BURKES GARDEN     37.15N 81.37W
11/18/2015                   TAZEWELL           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON CLEARFORK ROAD. TIME IS ESTIMATED

&&

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
853 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 NNE RICHLANDS         37.15N 81.78W
11/18/2015                   TAZEWELL           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON JEWELL RIDGE ROAD. TIME IS ESTIMATED

&&

FISHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
854 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 NW BLUEFIELD          37.29N 81.32W
11/18/2015                   TAZEWELL           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON BIG BRANCH ROAD. TIME IS ESTIMATED

&&

FISHER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
856 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

VAZ007-009-WVZ042-043-508-190400-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-MERCER-SUMMERS-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...MARION...BLUEFIELD...
FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
856 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...

RAIN...HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. RAINFALL UP TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE WITH A
HEAVIER BAND OF RAIN. PONDING OF WATER IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING OR
POOR DRAINAGE AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS
THIS STRONG COULD CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AND CAN MAKE
DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

VAZ010>014-018>020-022>024-034-035-WVZ044-507-190400-
BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLAND...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...
RADFORD...PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...
COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...
LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...BEDFORD...AMHERST...UNION...LEWISBURG...
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...ALDERSON
856 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. RAINFALL UP TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE WITH A
HEAVIER BAND OF RAIN. PONDING OF WATER IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING OR
POOR DRAINAGE AREA. SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH MAY GUST AS HIGH
AS 45 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NCZ001-018-VAZ015-190400-
ASHE-WATAUGA-GRAYSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...BOONE...INDEPENDENCE...
WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY
856 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN. PONDING OF WATER IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING
OR POOR DRAINAGE AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 30 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AND
CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

NCZ002-003-019-VAZ016-017-032-190400-
ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WILKES-CARROLL-FLOYD-PATRICK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SPARTA...DOBSON...WILKESBORO...GALAX...
FLOYD...STUART
856 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE...

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN. PONDING OF WATER IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING
OR POOR DRAINAGE AREA.

NCZ004-005-020-VAZ033-043-190400-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-YADKIN-FRANKLIN-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DANBURY...EDEN...YADKINVILLE...
ROCKY MOUNT...MARTINSVILLE
856 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. RAINFALL UP TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
BANDS OF RAIN. PONDING OF WATER IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREA.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1101 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

NCZ001>003-018-019-190600-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...DOBSON...
BOONE...WILKESBORO
1101 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SURRY...ASHE...
WILKES...WATAUGA AND ALLEGHANY COUNTIES...

AT 1054 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES
CONTINUED TO INDICATE HEAVY RAIN FALLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BLUE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS. RAIN WAS FALLING
AT RATES OF ONE HALF INCH...TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...PER
HOUR. EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE FALLING THROUGH AT
LEAST 1 AM BEFORE DECREASING IN INTENSITY. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO
ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH 1 AM.